Luck was first round quality drafted in the 3rd-4th rounds

As I’ve previously mentioned, draft strategy can vary for many different reasons. Quarterback is my next position of focus, and like running backs, this is a position you can draft later than you may think. JJ Zachariason of numberfire.com has written an e-book loaded with statistics and mathematical research to support the theory of late-round quarterback drafting (I’ve read it and recommend it as a crucial piece of research during your draft prep). The key to this position, as with all positions, is value.

Take a look at the 2014 preseason Composite ADP of quarterbacks compared to their end of season rankings according to ESPN.com’s standard scoring settings:

Peyton Manning was the first overall pick in many drafts, but he finished behind Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. While Aaron Rodgers was a frequent first round pick, Andrew Luck was a 2nd-3rd rounder. Russell Wilson? He was a late round quarterback, and based on Consensus ADP, he had one of the highest values in the 2014 season.

No quarterback was more disappointing in terms of value than Matthew Stafford. Based on his end of season rank, he was drafted too high last year, during those crucial rounds where productive WR2s were still available. Robert Griffin and Nick Foles are in the same tier with Matthew Stafford as quarterbacks who did not come close to their projections. Ben Roethlisberger may have finished 5th overall, but this ranking is largely skewed due to his atypical, albeit historical, back-to-back games of six touchdowns. It should be noted that in the seven weeks prior to the two-week span of twelve touchdowns, Big Ben threw a total of ten touchdowns.

Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, and Philip Rivers all returned a value similar to their ADP, and none of them were likely drafted before the ninth round. These are three examples of why it is logical to wait on drafting your quarterback.

In contrast, here’s a look at the top 20 quarterbacks versus their preseason rank:

How about Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning finishing in the top 10? Both were late rounders or waiver wire pickups to fill in during bye weeks and were ranked outside of the top 20. Tannehill and Manning can be placed in the same value category as Russell Wilson. Owners who drafted Stafford, Newton, and Kaepernick in the early to middle rounds could have taken Ryan Tannehill or Eli Manning with their second to last pick (you do take your kicker last, right?) and loaded up on high ceiling receivers or running backs.

Derek Carr could be considered the biggest surprise at quarterback. Fellow rookies Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater were ranked ahead of him. Both Geno Smith and Michael Vick of the New York Jets were ranked ahead of Carr, yet he outperformed them. Just for good measure, Derek Carr threw only twelve interceptions; twelve quarterbacks threw more interceptions than he did. High draft QBs, including Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, all threw more picks than Carr.

Quarterback is one of the more consistent positions in football and is the cornerstone of any fantasy team. This does not mean you draft a quarterback with your first pick. It means you must find value in your quarterback—and value can be found in later rounds. This isn’t to say if Andrew Luck is available in the third round that you pass on him. He would be a steal in the third, but I wouldn’t recommend taking him in the first when you could grab someone like Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, or even Joe Flacco in later rounds. Stack your first few rounds with players who catch the ball, your middle rounds with those who run the ball, and then in later rounds you can draft the player who will throw the ball to your studs.

Early 2015 Draft Prep: Zero RB Theory

Early 2015 Draft Prep: Pass Catching RBs

As always you can hit me up anytime to talk all things fantasy @JerseyJen22