Jamie Calandro gives a preview of the 2015 Baltimore Orioles.
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Pitchers and catchers are finally starting to report, and I’m continuing to preview the AL East from a fantasy perspective. The division should be highly competitive and there are a ton of offensive beasts to choose from (Baltimore is no exception). The O’s offer a challenge, as a lot of their boppers come with an injury risk (Davis, Wieters, Machado), so researching ADP trends and following them along this Spring is critical. With such a deep player pool and sabermetrics, taking each team into account individually is a nice approach. Here is a breakdown of your team, O’s fans. Hopefully we see the grass soon!
Projected Lineup:
- Alejandro De Aza LF
- Manny Machado 3B
- Adam Jones CF
- Chris Davis 1B
- Steve Pearce DH
- J.J. Hardy SS
- Matt Wieters C
- Travis Snider RF
- Jonathan Schoop 2B
NOTES: This lineup looks a bit different with Nelson Cruz’s departure to Seattle, but should still produce a healthy amount of pop in a hitter-friendly atmosphere. Adam Jones is one of the steadiest producers in fantasy, and should be considered in the late first/early second round. He has only missed three games since the beginning of the 2012 season, and has surpassed a wOBA of .350 in each of the last three years. Chris Davis will need a bounce-back season in the cleanup spot, and the O’s are hopeful that young stud Manny Machado will be ready to go after a series of incredibly debilitating injuries. Another injured player returning is Matt Wieters, who is in the midst of a long recovery from Tommy John surgery. According to Buck Showalter, Wieters will have no limitations in Spring and will be ready for Opening Day.
Projected Rotation:
Projected Bullpen:
- Zach Britton (closer)
- Darren O’Day
- Tommy Hunter
NOTES: As always, the one issue standing in Baltimore’s way seems to be their pitching. Chris Tillman is a nice pitcher, but his FIP and xFIP have been significantly higher than his ERA the last three seasons, suggesting he has been the beneficiary of good luck. With a career 6.76 K/9, he’s really not the type who should be anchoring a staff. From a fantasy standpoint, I’m looking more to the upside of Kevin Gausman (and even Dylan Bundy) whose peripherals suggest they can help your fantasy team at the back end of your rotation. Gausman’s 3.02 BB/9 is too high, but he keeps the ball in the park and recorded a tidy 3.57 ERA in 2014. Zach Britton had a wonderful year last year, but I wouldn’t overspend for him. His 2.72 BB/9 is far too high for a closer, and his FIP was a full run and a half higher than his ERA. I’m not saying to ignore him, but just temper expectations, especially since the O’s have other options in Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter.
Stud: Adam Jones (OF)
I have heard many reports of fantasy experts being down on Jones, and I whole-heartedly disagree. There are plenty of upside picks to be had later in the draft, and you need for your first- and second-round picks to have stability. It doesn’t get more stable than Jones, who as I said before has only missed three games since the beginning of 2012, and posted a 3-year average of .284/31/95 with 97 runs and 12 SB over 648 AB per season. That’s exactly the kind of stability you want with your early picks, and Jones will still have protection behind him with Davis and Pearce (there has also been concern over his numbers declining with Cruz, but remember that Cruz was only there for one year). If you’re in an OBP league, you can downgrade him (career .320 OBP), but he is a virtual lock to return first-round value on draft day.
Bounce Back: Chris Davis (1B)
Davis CRUSHED a lot of fantasy players last year (yes, pun intended), but he represents a great value this year with his ADP about 4-5 rounds later than last year’s. Chasing his 2013 season of .286/53/138 is a fool’s errand, but there is no reason his numbers won’t stabilize to their career numbers of .250/32/97 thanks to a .240 ISO and rising BB%. Remember also that Camden Yards caters to left-handed power, and in an era where power is now at a premium, you could be getting 40 HR upside at a discount.
Sleeper: Kevin Gausman (SP)
As I said before, of all the Baltimore SPs the one I am targeting most based on his ADP is Gausman. His 3.02 BB/9 definitely needs to improve, but a 5.8% HR% is elite, and he lowered his LD% from 25% to 23% over the course of just one year (still needs to come down more). Based on his ADP which is hovering right around the 17th round, you are getting a SP6 or SP7 that could have SP3-4 upside.
Bust: Steve Pearce (OF/DH)
This analysis comes with the caveat of it mattering where he’s drafted. In the most recent LABR draft, Pearce was taken in the 12th round by Craig Glaser and Corey Schwartz of BSports which I think is perfect. However, I’ve seen him climb upwards even to the late fifth/early sixth round in some drafts, which is far too high. At the age of 31, Pearce saw an unbelievable boost in his career stats. His .178 career ISO ballooned to .263, and his HR/FB% was an unsustainable 17.5%. His .930 OPS was almost a full 150 points higher than his career mark as well. If you can get him late enough, you could be stealing some nice power, but don’t overspend.
Late-Round Flier: Dylan Bundy (SP)
The former first-round pick has dealt with unfortunate injuries that have really delayed his ascent into the majors. However, he is expected to pitch without any restrictions in Spring Training, and Buck Showalter says he has “crossed every hurdle, and then some”. Bundy has no track record at all, but displayed a K/9 of over 12.00 in his limited time in the minors, which makes him a fine pickup after the 20th round. At that point in the draft, you’re only looking for upside, and your rotation is already established. Bundy is expected to open the season in Double-A, but a strong showing in camp could put him in the conversation for a rotation spot.
Prospect To Watch: Hunter Harvey (SP)
Harvey is just as exciting as Bundy as far as young Baltimore pitchers go, and dynasty-leaguers should take extreme notice this year. At 20 years old, he has already shown elite breaking pitches, which combined with a 93-94 MPH fastball was able to propel him to a 10.9 K/9 last year before being shut down with an elbow strain. Assuming Harvey stays healthy, his ascent through the minors should be quick.
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Jamie is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. You can follow him on Twitter @jac3600.
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