What can we expect from 2014 saves leader Fernando Rodney this season?
Over the past five weeks FantasyPros has profiled the anticipated closer situation for each team on a divisional basis in the National League (East, Central and West) and American League (East and Central). This week we move to the final division, the AL West. As always, we’ll wrap up the column with any closer-related news from the past week.
This division has some intriguing options at closer. Two teams have solid closer foundations that are among the better relievers available in the league, one team has a full-out battle for the role, and two other clubs have some question marks surrounding the closer position, mainly due to health.
American League West Closer Profiles
Note: All ADP values and projections are accurate as of 3/12/15.
Houston Astros
The Astros are holding a seemingly wide-open competition for their closer role this season with Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek being the top candidates. Chad Qualls and Josh Fields will also get looks.
Qualls has the most experience in the role, but we feel that this job is either Gregerson’s or Neshek’s based on our projections.
In 2014 Gregerson continued to perform as one of the best setup men in the game. In his sole season with the Oakland Athletics, Gregerson threw 72.1 innings compiling a 2.12 ERA (3.24 FIP), 1.01 WHIP and 59 strikeouts. He had three saves and 22 holds.
Neshek, a side-arming righty, was dominant in his one season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He registered a 1.87 ERA (2.37 FIP), and consistently kept hitters off the bases (0.79 WHIP). In 67 innings he struck out 68 hitters, nailed down six saves and managed 25 holds.
Our projection model, a consensus of six top fantasy sites, gives Gregerson the chance to earn the most saves among the group.
In all, Gregerson’s estimates are as follows – 17 saves (21 chances), 15 holds, 62 K, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 68 innings.
Gregerson’s ADP as of this writing is 224 and his ECR sits at 258.
As for Neshek, the numbers pan out like this – 6 saves, 2 blown saves, 10 holds, 58 K, 2.96 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP in 61 innings.
Neshek currently owns an ADP of 349 while his ECR is 365.
The model does show Qualls earning nine saves this season, but Gregerson and Neshek are the better pitchers and the ones to watch as the spring progresses with Gregerson the favorite to earn his first full-time closer role at 30 years old. Keep Qualls in your sights in case of injuries, but he’s otherwise not worth owning in mixed leagues.
Los Angeles Angels
Huston Street is one of the better closers in the game, and should be owned as such. While with the San Diego Padres and Angels last season, Street was fantastic. His combined stats for 2014 amounted to 41 saves (44 opportunities), 1.37 ERA (2.79 FIP), 0.94 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 58.1 innings.
The right-handed Street will live up to expectations according to our model – 38 saves (4 blown), 54 K, 2.64 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 57 IP.
Street, 30, is coming off fantasy boards at pick #112, while his ECR is considerably higher at 158. Each of the experts polled feel his ADP is overvalued, though some are very close in their rankings.
Right-hander Joe Smith is the setup man for Street. Smith, who turns 31 later this month, posted tremendous fantasy rate stats in 2014 – 1.81 ERA (2.85 FIP) and a 0.80 WHIP. He struck out 68 in 74.2 IP and nailed down 15 saves before Street’s arrival last season. Smith also held 18 games in 2014.
Oakland Athletics
Sean Doolittle is unlikely to begin the regular season with the club after suffering a rotator cuff tear a some point last season. He is expected back in May. Until then, Tyler Clippard looks to be the answer for closing out games for the A’s.
Doolittle took over the closer role in 2014 and ran with it. The 28-year-old lefty saved 22 games (26 chances) and registered a 2.73 ERA (1.71 FIP) and minuscule 0.73 WHIP. Doolittle struck out 89 batters in just 62.2 innings (12.8 K/9).
Assuming he misses no more than the first month of the season, we see Doolittle continuing his success – 25 saves (4 blown), 69 K, 2.61 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 56 IP.
He is presently being drafted at pick #185 exactly matching his ECR.
As for Clippard, he will begin his first season in Oakland after several years as one of the Washington Nationals’ top setup men.
In 2014 Clippard won seven games, held a whopping 40 contests, saved a game and managed a tidy 2.18 ERA (2.75 FIP) with a crisp 1.00 WHIP. He struck out 82 batters in 70.1 innings.
Clippard has a bit of experience closing, finishing off 32 games for the Nats in 2012. We see another fine season for Clippard in the making – 8 saves, 35 holds, 73 K, 2.73 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
Clippard’s current ADP is 233 and his ECR slightly higher at 259. It’s a tough situation because if Doolittle suffers a setback, Clippard is the man in Oakland. However, it is hard to pick him any higher than he is being drafted at this time unless holds are a category in your league. The good news is Clippard won’t hurt you in any category.
Seattle Mariners
Fernando Rodney took his bow and arrow act to Seattle in 2014 and was slinging plenty of them after completing saves. He locked down a Major League-best 48 games for the Mariners in impressive fashion.
Rodney, who turns 38 next week, blew just three save opportunities, and pitched to a 2.85 ERA (2.83 FIP) with an elevated 1.34 WHIP due to his proclivity to walk batters (3.8 BB/9 in 2014 and 4.4 BB/9 for career). Rodney struck out 76 hitters in 66.1 innings.
So, while Rodney certainly makes things interesting, he is projected to be among the league leaders in saves again in 2015. We show Rodney with 39 saves (5 blown), 2.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 69 K in 64 IP.
Rodney’s ADP of 129 is considered overvalued by 90 percent of the experts. His ECR stands at 151. If you can stand the hit in WHIP, Rodney is certainly worth a look as one of the top second-tier closers in the game.
Danny Farquhar is geared up to be the setup man for Rodney in 2015. Farquhar, 28, struck out 81 batters in 71 innings in 2014. He compiled a 2.66 ERA (2.86 FIP) and a 1.13 WHIP. Farquhar recorded 13 holds last season.
Texas Rangers
The talented, but oft-injured, Neftali Feliz enters the 2015 campaign as the Rangers’ closer after taking over the job from Joakim Soria in late July 2014.
Feliz, 26, had just come back earlier that month from a long-term absence after recouping from Tommy John surgery. Feliz saved 13 games in 14 chances over the remainder of the 2014 season. He tossed 31.2 innings while striking out 21 hitters along the way. His ERA (1.99) was great, but be careful as his FIP (4.90) tells a much different story. Feliz’s 0.98 WHIP was stellar as well.
For 2015, assuming a full season, the right-handed Feliz is looking at 28 saves (6 blown), 43 K, 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 51 innings.
Feliz is being selected later in drafts at pick #194, and might be going a bit too early according to his ECR of 246.
The men leading up to Feliz are uninspiring options unless Feliz goes down with an injury. Tanner Scheppers seems to be the most logical choice to back up Feliz. Scheppers missed most of last season due to injury, but pitched well in 2013 – 1.88 ERA (3.74 FIP), 1.07 WHIP and 59 K in 76.2 IP.
Closer News Around the League
- I feel like a broken record here – Rafael Soriano remains unsigned. An injury has occurred which could land Soriano a job (pure speculation on my part) even though the injury happened to a starter, Toronto’s Marcus Stroman. Losing Stroman for the season due to a torn ACL might require the Blue Jays to move Aaron Sanchez into the rotation, leaving Brett Cecil as the only viable closer option. Soriano could make sense as a fallback option to begin the season.
- Speaking of Cecil, he has been battling shoulder inflammation, but had a “good” bullpen session Tuesday according to a tweet from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Soriano could make even more sense for the Blue Jays if this becomes a bigger problem for Cecil.
- Minnesota’s closer Glen Perkins canceled a bullpen session Monday after feeling pain in his right side. The discomfort began the previous Friday according to La Velle E. Neal III of the StarTribune.
- Arizona Diamondbacks closer Addison Reed is expected to be able to begin the regular season on time, manager Chip Hale declared Monday. Reed has been slowed by soreness in his right shoulder since before camp began. There is no specific date set as to when Reed will make an appearance on the mound.
- Francisco Rodriguez has resolved his visa issues and will arrive in Milwaukee Brewers’ camp very soon per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy via Twitter. K-Rod should be able to get himself ready to assume the closer’s role for Opening Day.
Next week we will break out our own closer chart displaying the current closer or committee and the next in line to close. We will start with the National League and unveil the American League the following week. We will finish off the preview series with the full MLB chart one week before the season commences.
Once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will house a complete MLB closer chart and report on the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and provide some spec picks for the upcoming schedule.
We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.
Check out our previous divisional previews below:
Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.
