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Fantasy Football Sleepers: Cowboys RB Options (10-7)

Fantasy Football Sleepers: Cowboys RB Options (10-7)
The acquisition of La'el Collins only strengthened what may have already been the league's best offensive line. There numerous unheralded backs around the league whose fantasy value would exploded behind Dallas' fearsome fivesome

The addition of La’el Collins only strengthened what may have already been the league’s best OL

In all of my experience playing fantasy football, I’ve found that situations usually repeat themselves with nuance. There really isn’t anything happening now that hasn’t happened before. Rookies get hyped, veterans are questioned, coordinator impacts are debated and Dave comes up with another cringe-worthy team name (typical Dave). You can almost set your watch and place bets to the rhythm of events.

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However, something completely unparalleled occurred this offseason. DeMarco Murray, fantasy football’s highest scoring RB, was allowed to depart in free agency. This marked the first occurrence in which a back who had totaled more than 1600 total yards in a season would be suiting up for a new employer the following year. Murray’s season was largely credited to an offensive line that was the tip-top of the tip-toppiest in the NFL. Pro Football Focus’s No. 1 big, ugly quintet returned all five starters and added a consensus first-round talent in La’El Collins. I’ll spare you the lengthy description, but the Cowboys are going to get things done on the ground.

Instead of using a draft pick or bringing in a substantial free-agent to replace Murray, the Cowboys decided that Darren McFadden and his lethargic 3.3 yards per carry was all the external help they needed. Internally, the shakes aren’t much better. Joseph Randle seems to be the consensus favorite, but please remember that in the four games in which Randle has totaled over 10 carries, he’s averaged 2.5 yards per carry. Even though he swears he won’t leave meat on the bone, his pre-draft metrics and current resume shows a very unappetizing fantasy forecast in 2015, lead back or not. Outside of McFadden and Randle, change-of-pace runner Lance Dunbar, an interesting, but probably bad option in Lache Seastrunk and the oft-dinged Ryan Williams. In a game of incomplete information, this situation seems hazier than most.

The dearth of backfield talent, the organization’s previous inclinations to test the brackish, Felix Jones-infested free-agent waters and recent rumors regarding RB options of both the current employed and unemployed variety should lead to one thing. Another shoe (in the form of a Dallas Cowboy RB transaction) is about to drop.

While I always advise against taking a kicker or a defense in early drafts, it needs to be spread to even further this year. You conceivably have the shot to nab a flex play at worst, low-end RB1 at best, with one of the last two picks of your draft, provided they’re moved to the Cowboys. Without further ado, let’s take a look 10 RBs who may not have a ton of value right now, but could be fantasy relevant with a change of scenery.

No. 10 – Bryce Brown

WHY HE’S AVAILABLE: The Bills added LeSean McCoy, with the intention of making him their de facto three-down back. They also added RB Karlos Williams, who’s previous history as a defensive back should make him a special teams contributor right off the bat. That leaves one spot left for either Brown or Fred Jackson.

Due to his inability to play special teams last year, Brown was a healthy scratch on more than one occurrence. When he did get a shot, the results simply weren’t there, averaging a measly 3.5 yards on 35 carries. He’s also developed something of a reputation as a fumbler, losing the rock on five of his 226 career carries.

WHY SHOULD YOU CARE: Despite being a seventh-round pick, Brown should never be mistaken for a try-hard grinder, but he’s got “jump off the page” talent. Brown was the top high school prospect in the nation in 2009, and while he shouldn’t simply be resting on his laurels, when he’s gotten a starter’s workload, he’s been must-see TV. During a four-game stretch in 2013 in which Brown recorded 10+ carried in each game, he averaged a whopping 5.4 yards per carry, including a monster 19-178-2 outing against Carolina.

Despite his disappearance from fantasy relevance these last two years, Brown hasn’t completely lost the groove. He’s posted 34-152 (4.5 YPC) and 25-143 (5.7 YPC) during the 2014 and 2013 preseasons, and is still only 24. On top of that, he possessed both above average size (6’0, 223 lbs) and athleticism (121.4 SPARQx, 71st percentile of all RBs, regardless of size).

COWBOY POSSIBILITY: Unlikely, but possible. The Bills are a year removed from giving up a fourth-round draft choice to acquire Brown. While moving him for less would seem like a loss, if he can’t beat out Fred Jackson for the No. 2 role on the depth chart, getting some value for Brown would be prudent. It’s going to be a common theme with many of the players on this list, but Brown has zero fantasy value right now (102nd ranked RB at the time of publishing). A simple phone call from Dallas could send him rocketing up draft boards.

No. 9 – Montee Ball

WHY HE’S AVAILABLE: After being a consensleeper (consensus+sleeper, eh eh eh, OK I’ll stop) in 2014, Ball failed to meet expectations in spectacular fashion. Bungling his way to a 55-172-1 line, Ball’s window to start was slammed shut by the emergence of C.J. Anderson. Should one or more of Juwan Thompson, Kapri Bibbs and Ronnie Hillman emerge, Ball could be a healthy inactive in his future in Denver. Also, after 984 touches in four years at Wisconsin (a whopping 697 in his final two years) and a 2014 cut short by injury, he may not have much left.

WHY YOU SHOULD CARE: The theory is that he was thrown off rhythm by a preseason appendectomy, and really never got back on track. He’s only a year removed from a 120-559-4 rushing line, and 20 catches for 145 yards. Described as a natural runner by the sharps, he’s shown flashes of being the runner that Denver was expecting when they drafted him with their second round pick in 2013.

COWBOY POSSIBILITY: Let’s call it 3%. Ball currently has a “seven to eight carry” role right now, but should one of the lesser-known backs take to new coach Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking system. The Broncos may simply have no role for the ex-Badger great. The ‘Boys also were higher on Ball than they were on Joseph Randle in 2013, and could actively look to pry him away from the Broncos providing the price is right. He’s currently the 57th ranked RB per our ECR ratings, but could possibly shoot back up to where he was last year if Jerry Jones decides he’s seen enough of his current backs.

No. 8 – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Backfield

WHY THEY’RE AVAILABLE: Yes, this is cheating, and no, I do not care. Every RB not named Charles Sims on the Buccaneers is most likely available in one way or another. Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey and Mike James were all drafted for another coach (Greg Schiano) by a previous GM (Mark Dominik). The team spent considerable draft capital on Sims (69th overall pick in 2014), and he should have the inside track for the starting job.

Martin, Rainey and James are not worthless players by any means. Doug Martin’s revelation in 2012 was followed up by 3.6 YPC and 3.7 YPC stink bombs. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy, appearing in only 17 of 32 possible games since 2013. His relatively unimpressive 4.9 YPC against Mountain West competition is looking like a larger and larger warning sign by the day, and his success rate has been in decline since his rookie season. To put it simply, Martin looks like a player in decline, and the Buccaneers don’t seem to have much faith in him either since they declined to pick up his option.

Rainey and James both seem to be players without a role at the time of this writing. They’re both pigeonholed as pass catchers, but with Charles Sims on the roster, there isn’t anything outside of scraps available for either of them.

WHY YOU SHOULD CARE: Martin has lost weight over the offseason and was in the conversation to be the first pick of fantasy drafts in 2013. When healthy, he’s a tremendous combination of speed and power, and can catch balls out of the backfield as well.

As for Bobby Rainey, he’s quite possibly the most underrated back in all of the NFL. When he’s been given the chance he’s displayed soft hands (42.5 third down conversion percentage), the ability to break tackles (Rainey broke the fifth most tackles of any back in the league on only 127 total touches) and tremendous agility. To top it off, he registered a high percentage of yards against base defenses, indicating that his 2014 4.3 YPC was no fluke of defensive alignment. He’s arguably one of, if not the most talented, third RBs in the NFL right now.

COWBOY POSSIBILITY: Probably the lowest of anyone on this list, but intriguing nonetheless. All three of these backs are athletic and have both the size and the hands to be three-down contributors. The trade value of all three of these backs should be low, and if UDFA Dominique Brown emerges, one or more could conceivably be cut. Martin has standalone fantasy value as our ECR No. 34 RB, but if any of these RBs draw the eye of the Cowboys, watch out.

No. 7 – Khiry Robinson

WHY HE’S AVAILABLE: Most likely, he’s not available, but the Saints decided to throw some roadblocks in the way of the third-year undrafted back from West Texas A&M during the offseason. Despite facing a cap crunch, the Saints decided to give Mark Ingram $7.6 million guaranteed and C.J. Spiller $9 million guaranteed. The Saints likely see Robinson as a third RB at best after having his 2014 ended by injury. He’s already been rumored to be a part of a trade, and doesn’t have tantalizing athleticism.

WHY YOU SHOULD CARE: Despite all of those drawbacks, tackling Robinson is as fun as giving a cactus a big hug. A runner who has the rare combination of creativity, urgency and malice, Robinson is the latest in a long line of impressive undrafted RB finds by the Saints, and he might just be the best.

In two NFL seasons, Robinson has posted impressive, but limited lines of 54-224-1 (4.1 YPC) and 76-362-3 (4.8 YPC). Those lines weren’t earned against defensive backs, everyone on the field knew it was going to be a run when Robinson was on the field, and he still wasn’t able to be stopped. 91% of Robinson’s 2014 snaps were against defenses with fewer than five defensive backs on the field, and he was still able to average a tremendous 4.4 YPC against base defense. Whenever he gets the ball in his hands, defenders take heed. Robinson averaged 2.75 yards after contact through the first seven weeks of 2014. He also forced an astonishing 15 missed tackles on his first 64 touches.

COWBOY POSSIBILITY: The Cowboys trading for Robinson makes too much sense, but as of now it’s not a likely scenario. Look for the Saints to hang onto Robinson, and for him to be a must-play in DFS formats should Ingram go down. But my oh my, if Dallas decided that they wanted to acquire Robinson, opposing sick days taken would be in for a guaranteed spike.

Also Considered (in no particular order)

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Brian Tesch is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @TheRealTesch.

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