Will Taylor Jungmann maintain his success?
One of my favorite ways to sort through free agents in my fantasy leagues is to look at what players are being added the most. ESPN has a +/- filter on their free agent page, and it provides a good look at what other fantasy players are doing with their rosters. Currently, the player atop the +/- list among pitchers is Brewers starter Taylor Jungmann. He is up to 41.2% owned in ESPN leagues, with a 22.8% increase since his dominant start against the Pirates on Sunday afternoon (7/19). Jungmann, a 6’6, 222-pound righty, throws a fastball that averages 92 mph along with a curveball and a changeup. According to PITCHf/x, each of these pitches has generated positive values at the major league level this season.
Jungmann was drafted 12th overall by the Brewers in the 2011 draft and has spent most of that time among the Brewers top 10 prospects. His ranking within the organization has fluctuated, mostly due to inconsistency with his command and control. In 2013 at Double-A, he had a 4.72 BB/9 over 139.1 innings. In 2014, he improved his walk rate to 2.60 over 52 Double-A innings, but upon his promotion to Triple-A that same year pushed his walk rate up to 4.07. It increased further this year over 59.1 innings at Triple-A to 4.40.
His previous minor league walk rates would leave some to believe he couldn’t stick with the Brewers rotation for a long period of time. Jungmann had different plans, and he has been stellar over 53 major league innings where he has posted a 2.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 2.55 walks per nine innings. These numbers have surely encouraged fantasy players to jump on Jungmann and ride his current success, but how long will it last?
Compared to other National League pitchers, Jungmann is outperforming a number of league average stats. Here are some stats of his compared to National League averages:
- Left on Base Percentage: Jungmann: 81.9%, League: 73.5%
- Home Run/Fly Ball rate: Jungmann: 4.5%, League: 10.7%
- Home Runs per 9 innings: Jungmann: 0.34, League: 0.92
- BABIP: Jungmann: .253, League: .297
- Ground Ball%: Jungmann: 53.7%, League: 46.4%
- Line Drive%: Jungmann: 16.3%, League: 21.1%
- Batted Ball (Soft%/Medium%/Hard%): Jungmann: 18.9%/57.4%/23.6%, League: 18.6%/52.5%/28.9%
It’s worth noting that I’m comparing 53 innings of individual work against 12,269 innings of all the collected National League pitchers.
Jungmann is leaving a larger percentage of batters on base, and he’s allowing a miniscule home run rate that has kept his ERA well below the 3.76 National League average. Looking at batted balls, his BABIP is lower than league average, but he’s allowed slightly more soft and medium contact with a lower hard-hit rate. He’s also been helped out by ground ball and line drive rates that are better than National League averages. None of these rates are otherworldly in relation to the league averages (although a case could be made for his fantastic LOB%). One or two bad starts from Jungmann could put him right at or below league average in many stats, which would hurt his fantasy owners rather than help them.
Wins have driven Jungmann’s value this season, and he’s earned a win in his last three starts, boosting his recent value for those who use a rating system like ESPN’s player rater. The Brewers offense has been fantastic over the past month, and with an offense like that behind him, Jungmann has definite win potential down the stretch. His worst start came at Coors Field on June 19 when he still earned a win while pitching six innings and allowing eight hits with four earned runs. Both of those figures are respectable numbers at the premier offensive park in the major leagues.
Miller Park is also an offensive haven, so Jungmann will have to see his rate stats, especially his HR/FB rate maintain themselves or only increase slightly to continue his success. The one stat I’m keeping an eye on is his walk rate, as that will determine how well he’s attacking hitters and getting outs. If he can keep his walk rate around his current rate of 2.55, I think he can be a serviceable fantasy starter in almost every format down the stretch. His next three starts will come against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, the Cubs at home and the Padres at home. I’m scared of the Diamondbacks match-up, but the Cubs and Padres games at home could go a long way in determining how Jungmann is treated by fantasy owners down the stretch.
My advice if you’re in need of pitching is to pick up Jungmann and monitor his next start against the Diamondbacks. If he puts up a quality start, he’s worth starting until he shows definite signs of regression. The Brewers will face the Reds and Pirates down the stretch. These are two teams Jungmann has already faced (the Pirates twice already), so keep an eye on how he performs against teams once they’ve had a game or two of at-bats against him and can make adjustments.
JP Gale is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from JP, check out his archive and follow him @gojpg.
