Julio Jones and the Falcons’ offense have a favorable schedule in 2015

It was easy for people to shy away from drafting Julio Jones last season because of his season-ending foot injury sustained five games into the 2013 campaign. Jones rewarded those who took him in their draft with a top 10 season in both standard and PPR formats, hauling in 104 catches on 163 targets for 1,593 yards and six touchdowns. He also had a monster Week 14, which is the first round of most fantasy playoff tournaments, bringing in 11 catches for 259 yards and a touchdown before exiting the game with a hip injury. This hip injury caused him to sit out Week 15, so if you were lucky enough to advance to your league’s championship game without him, he rewarded you with another great game bringing in seven catches and 107 yards. When healthy, Jones is one of the best players in the game which makes him an ideal fantasy player and worthy of a first-round draft pick. The biggest question mark is his health, but there has been no news this offseason to make you question if he will be ready for Week 1 and beyond. As of July 28, his ADP of 18 (fifth WR) reflects that people may be willing to take him in the late-first or early-second round, so the belief is that he will be good to go right out of the gate. I like him as my pick if I am drafting late in the first round.

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He is a must-have player in my book for the following reasons:

• His quarterback situation and offensive dynamic
  I also like Jones because I like Matt Ryan throwing to him. They have built great rapport over the last four seasons. Whether the Falcons have been winning or losing the one constant is “Matty Ice” to Jones. Ryan is a top 10 fantasy quarterback, and the Falcons are known for their high-octane offense. Atlanta has also been a very pass-happy team over the last four seasons, finishing third, third, eighth, and fourth in pass attempts since 2011. They have thrown the ball 62.1% of the time since 2011. While they have taken strides to upgrade their running game by spending draft picks on Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman over the last two seasons, they will most likely still use the aerial attack on the fast turf in Atlanta to their advantage as long as they have players like Jones and Roddy White.

• His size and skill-set
  Jones was drafted out of Alabama in 2011. The Falcons had just come off a season where they had the best record in the NFC and traded up to the sixth pick to select Jones, that’s how much he was coveted. He was a freak athlete in college and at 6’4″, 220 pounds, he is a freak athlete now. He can be your possession receiver (445 targets and 278 receptions in 45 games). He can be your deep threat receiver (4,330 yards at 15.6 yards per reception). He can be your viable scoring threat (26 touchdowns in four seasons, including 18 in his first two years). His usage has evolved as the team has changed around him, but he is still productive and consistent which is what you’re looking for in a WR1. He has at least five targets in 41 straight games dating back to his rookie season. He also has at least four catches in 25 of the last 26 games he’s played. He just needs to stay healthy, as he has missed 12 games over the last two seasons (15 overall in 64 games).

• His schedule and home and field condition advantage
  The Falcons have the second easiest fantasy schedule in the NFL this year. They have the third easiest schedule for quarterbacks and fifth easiest schedule for wide receivers in 2015. They also play in the miserable NFC South which boasted a total of zero teams who finished with a winning record in 2014. To reference my own research, 11 of their 16 games are coming against teams ranked 20th or worse in fantasy points allowed. They are playing the third place inter-conference schedule and only playing four games against teams who finished over .500. They do have a rough fantasy playoff schedule, taking on a Carolina defense twice in a span of three weeks, but this just means that the first 13 weeks of the season should be fairly easy against lower-ranked defenses. They play their home games in a dome, free from the elements. Two road games against New Orleans and Dallas are also in domes. They also travel to San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville and Tennessee where the weather should favor the offense. Their only other a road game, against the Giants, is on FieldTurf in the warm weather month of September. With 10 dome games, five warm weather road games, and one northeastern road game in September, one may argue the Falcons have zero games where field conditions should be a negative factor, especially with a veteran quarterback such as Ryan. Jones should have no problem racking up the yardage and fantasy points.

I will try to take Jones in all of my drafts and have looked to build around him during my mock drafts on FantasyPros with help of their Draft Wizard. If you want some insurance on your investment, find a way to draft the aforementioned White as well. He will still benefit from all of the same intangibles (QB, schedule) as Jones. Just do not pass up on No. 11 in Atlanta, as he will be the anchor your fantasy lineup needs to put up points week in and week out.

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Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.