Will Rob Gronkowski again finish as a top fantasy TE?

This is Part Three of the Predicting the Top 10 series: Tight Ends. Check out Part One: Top 10 Running Backs and Part Deux: Top 10 Wide Receivers.

The transition for college players entering the NFL is a difficult one, especially at the tight end position. While we have seen plenty of running backs and wide receivers make an immediate impact, since 2007 only nine tight ends have logged at least 600 snaps in their first season.

• Rob Gronkowski – selected in the second round
• Dwayne Allen – selected in the third round
• Tony Moeaki – selected in the third round
• John Carlson – selected in the second round
• Mychal Rivera – selected in the sixth round
• Tyler Eifert – selected in the first round
• Lance Kendricks – selected in the second round
• Timothy Wright – undrafted free agent
• Jermaine Gresham – selected in the first round
• Zach Miller – selected in the second round

One of the reasons for the lack of rookie impact from the tight end position is due to the physicality of the pro game. Gronkowski, Allen, and Moeaki were able to perform well because of their ability to both block and catch.

So many tight ends in the game are one-dimensional. If they can’t block, they will not be on the field. Simple as that. Less playing time equals less fantasy eating opportunites. If they can only block and can’t catch, then there’s no dining at all.

Because of the dualistic nature of the tight end position, it definitely filters out the fantasy contributers and makes it easier to predict who will finish in the top 10. The below looks at the percentage in which ADP matched the final top 10 fantasy tight ends.

(Historical ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com. Historical fantasy points data courtesy of footballguys.com. Data is for standard scoring.)

Or does it? It definitely looks that way in 2005 and 2006, but then basically becomes a coin flip thereafter.

Below, I will go back 10 years to see why the trend changed. Hopefully there will be some nuggets of information that could help us try and skew the odds in our favor to predict the top 10 tight ends for 2015.

PAST 10 YEARS

2005

The Studs

• Tony Gonzalez
• Antonio Gates
• Jason Witten
• Alge Crumpler
• Jeremy Shockey
• Todd Heap
• Randy McMichael
• L.J. Smith

The Disappointments

• Dallas Clark – Finished #14 TE. 37 receptions, 488 yards, and four touchdowns. Much was expected in his third year. There were just too many mouths to feed on that Colts team; Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, and Brandon Stokley.
• Jermaine Wiggins – Finished #18 TE. 69 receptions, 568 yards, but only one touchdown. Coming off a season where he caught 71 passes for 705 yards and four touchdowns. In 2005, Daunte Culpepper missed time due to injury and Brad Johnson started nine games.

The Replacements

• Chris Cooley – ADP #13 TE. Led the team in touchdowns (6) his rookie year (2004). Garnered the trust of Mark Brunell in 2005 and was second behind Santana Moss in receptions with 71.
• Jerramy Stevens – ADP #18 TE. Fellow tight end Itula Mili was sent down to the practice squad, which paved the way for more opportunities for Stevens.

2006

The Studs

• Antonio Gates
• Jeremy Shockey
• Tony Gonzalez
• Todd Heap
• Alge Crumpler
• Chris Cooley
• L.J. Smith
• Ben Watson

The Disappointments

• Jason Witten – Finished #16 TE. Only scored one touchdown.
• Randy McMichael – Finished #11 TE.

The Replacements

• Kellen Winslow – ADP #12 TE. Missed 14 games in 2004 due to injury. Missed all of 2005 due to motorcycle accident.
• Desmond Clark – ADP #15 TE. Oh the beauty of looking back. Sexy Rexy Grossman made the Bears passing game relevant. Kyle Orton and his 5.1 ypa just didn’t cut it the previous year.

2007

The Studs

• Antonio Gates
• Tony Gonzalez
• Chris Cooley
• Kellen Winslow
• Jason Witten
• Donald Lee

The Disappointments

• Jeremy Shockey – Missed two games due to injury.
• Todd Heap – Missed 10 games due to injury.
• Vernon Davis – Missed two games due to injury. Missed six games his rookie year (2006).
• Alge Crumpler – Missed two games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Dallas Clark – ADP #12 TE. Marvin Harrison missed 11 games due to injury. Brandon Stokley went to the Denver Broncos. Clark led the team with 11 touchdown receptions.
• Heath Miller – ADP #14 TE. Selected in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft. Third year in the league. Bruce Arians replaced Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator.
• Owen Daniels – ADP #18 TE. Second year in the league. Became the clear cut starter.
• Tony Scheffler – ADP #28 TE. Second year in the league. Broke his foot in May of 2007, causing him to miss training camp.

2008

The Studs

• Jason Witten
• Antonio Gates
• Dallas Clark
• Tony Gonzalez
• Chris Cooley

The Disappointments

• Kellen Winslow – Missed six games due to injury. Repair damage from the 2005 motorcycle accident.
• Jeremy Shockey – Traded to the Saints. Missed four games due to injury.
• Todd Heap – First year as offensive coordinator for Cam Cameron. Coming off a season where he missed 10 games due to injury. Although he played all 16 games in 2008, Heap only caught 35 balls.
• Heath Miller – Missed two games due to injury.
• Vernon Davis – Mike Singletary’s interim head coach year. Only caught 31 passes. Missed two games in 2007 and six games in 2006 due to injury.

The Replacements

• Visanthe Shiancoe – Was not drafted in fantasy. Caught seven touchdowns on 42 receptions in 2008. Prior high in receptions was 27. Adrian Peterson‘s second year in the league.
• Owen Daniels – ADP #11 TE.
• John Carlson – ADP #28 TE. Rookie season. Seahawks wide receiving core was ravaged by injuries.
• Anthony Fasano – ADP #25 TE. Traded to the Dolphins. Third year in the league. Only caught 34 passes but scored seven touchdowns. Split time with tight end David Martin.
• Greg Olsen – ADP #15 TE. Second year in the league. Leading wide receiver for the Bears was Devin Hester. Matt Forte led the team in receptions in 2008. Olsen did split time with tight end Desmond Clark, but scored four more touchdowns.

2009

The Studs

• Jason Witten
• Antonio Gates
• Tony Gonzalez
• Dallas Clark
• Greg Olsen
• Kellen Winslow

The Disappointments

• Chris Cooley – Missed nine games due to injury.
• Owen Daniels – Missed eight games due to injury.
• John Carlson – Finished as #11 TE.
• Jeremy Shockey – Missed four games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Vernon Davis – ADP #18 TE. Fourth offensive coordinator in four years-Jimmy Raye replaced Mike Martz in 2009. Quarterback Alex Smith took pay cut and had to compete for the starting job.
• Brent Celek – ADP #16 TE. Third year in the league. Became the starter when L.J. Smith departed via free agency.
• Visanthe Schiancoe – ADP #11 TE. Scored 11 touchdowns.
• Heath Miller – ADP #15 TE. Signed new contract in the offseason.

2010

The Studs

• Antonio Gates
• Vernon Davis
• Jason Witten
• Tony Gonzalez
• Chris Cooley

The Disappointments

• Dallas Clark – Missed 10 games due to injury.
• Jermichael Finley – Missed 11 games due to injury.
• Brent Celek – Donovan McNabb was traded to Washington. The Michael Vick Experience. Celek only caught 42 passes.
• Visanthe Shiancoe – Only caught 47 passes and two touchdowns. Injuries decimated the Vikings in 2010; Brett Favre, Percy Harvin, and Sidney Rice all missed time. This was the year the Vikings traded for Randy Moss, then cut him four weeks later.
• Owen Daniels – Missed six games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Marcedes Lewis – Was not drafted in fantasy. Scored 10 touchdowns. Never scored more than two the prior four seasons.
• Rob Gronkowski – ADP #21 TE. Drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft. Also selected tight end Aaron Hernandez in the fourth round. Looking back on it, watching the Patriots select two tight ends in the first four rounds of the draft should’ve tickled out spidey senses. Especially since they let go of Randy Moss. Performed in the preseason, scoring four touchdowns.
• Kellen Winslow – ADP #11 TE. Prior year caught 77 passes on 127 targets.
• Dustin Keller – ADP #17 TE. Selected in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. Third year in the league.
• Zach Miller – ADP #12 TE. Increase in receptions, targets, and yards in each of his first three years in the league.

2011

The Studs

• Antonio Gates
• Jermichael Finley
• Jason Witten
• Vernon Davis
• Jimmy Graham
• Rob Gronkowski

The Disappointments

• Dallas Clark – Missed five games due to injury.
• Owen Daniels – Missed one game due to injury. Only caught three touchdowns.
• Marcedes Lewis – Blaine Gabbert. Did not catch a touchdown.
• Kellen Winslow – Only caught two touchdowns.

The Replacements

• Aaron Hernandez – ADP #14 TE. Performed well his rookie year. The Patriots transformed their offense to a lethal 2-TE set.
• Tony Gonzalez – ADP #11 TE.
• Dustin Keller – ADP #15 TE. Progressed in almost every receiving category in his first three years in the league. Became the #1 option after Braylon Edwards left.
• Brent Celek – ADP #18 TE. Second year of the Vick Experience.

2012

The Studs

• Jimmy Graham
• Rob Gronkowski
• Jason Witten
• Tony Gonzalez

The Disappointments

• Antonio Gates – Missed one game due to injury. Missed three games in 2011 and six games in 2010 due to a foot issue.
• Aaron Hernandez – Missed six games due to injury.
• Vernon Davis – This was the year the 49ers phased out Alex Smith and started the Colin Kaepernick era.
• Jermichael Finley – Only scored two touchdowns.
• Brandon Pettigrew – Missed two games due to injury.
• Fred Davis – Missed nine games due to injury.

The Replacements

• Heath Miller – ADP #22 TE. First year for offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
• Greg Olsen – ADP #15 TE. Jeremy Shockey was not re-signed in the offseason. Second year with Cam Newton.
• Dennis Pitta – Wasn’t drafted in fantasy. Fellow tight end Ed Dickson missed three games due to injury.
• Owen Daniels – ADP #16 TE. Three years removed from ACL surgery.
• Brandon Myers – Wasn’t drafted in fantasy. First year for head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. There was a ton of garbage time fantasy feasting.
• Jermaine Gresham – ADP #12 TE. Third year in the league. Increased receptions, targets, and yards from rookie year to year two.

2013

The Studs

• Jimmy Graham
• Jason Witten
• Vernon Davis
• Tony Gonzalez
• Greg Olsen
• Antonio Gates

The Disappointments

• Rob Gronkowski – Missed nine games due to injury. Missed five games in 2012.
• Jermichael Finley – Missed 10 games due to injury. Missed two games rookie year, three games in 2009, and 11 games in 2010.
• Kyle Rudolph – Missed eight games due to injury.
• Owen Daniels – Missed 11 games due to injury. Missed two games in 2006, eight games in 2009, five games in 2010, one game in 2011, and one game in 2012.

The Replacements

• Julius Thomas – ADP #23 TE. Missed 11 games his rookie year due to injury. Missed all of 2012 due to injury. Injuries to Jacob Tamme and Joel Dressen provided opportunity. Tons of preseason buzz about Thomas.
• Jordan Cameron – ADP #13 TE. First year for offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Missed eight games rookie year. Missed two games in 2012.
• Charles Clay – Was not drafted in fantasy. Dustin Keller suffered a season-ending injury.
• Martellus Bennett – ADP #14 TE. Signed with the Chicago Bears.

2014

The Studs

• Jimmy Graham
• Julius Thomas
• Rob Gronkowski
• Jason Witten
• Greg Olsen

The Disappointments

• Vernon Davis – Missed two games due to injury. Dealt with ankle and back issues all season long. Poor quarterback play from Colin Kaepernick. Offensive scheme rendered Davis a non-factor.
• Jordan Cameron – Missed six games due to injury.
• Kyle Rudolph – Missed seven games due to injury. Missed eight games the prior year.
• Jordan Reed – Missed five games due to injury. Missed seven games the prior year.
• Dennis Pitta – Missed 13 games due to injury. Missed 12 games the prior year.

The Replacements

• Antonio Gates – ADP #14 TE. Scored 12 touchdowns. Was suspended four games (PED’s) for the 2015 season, so the resurgence may have been due to that.
• Martellus Bennett -ADP #12 TE. Brandon Marshall missed three games due to injury.
• Coby Fleener – ADP #22 TE. Scored eight touchdowns. Fellow tight end Dwayne Allen missed three games due to injury.
• Travis Kelce – ADP #20 TE. Missed all of his rookie year due to injury. Was brought along slowly in 2014.
• Delanie Walker – ADP #21 TE. First year for head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Became the security blanket for all three of the quarterbacks that started; Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, and Jake Locker.

DECIPHERING THE DATA

Below is a chart showing characteristics for the disappointments.

Below is a chart showing characteristics for the replacements.

Outside of the truly elite tight ends, the rest of the group is tightly grouped together. A touchdown here or there could be the difference between finishing inside or outside the top 10. Injuries are impossible to predict, so on that front all you can really go on is injury history. It’s very rare for a tight end to come out of nowhere and make an impact without an injury.

PREDICTION

2015 ADP 

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jimmy Graham
3. Greg Olsen
4. Travis Kelce
5. Martellus Bennett
6. Julius Thomas
7. Jason Witten
8. Jordan Cameron
9. Dwayne Allen
10. Zach Ertz

For the sake of this excercise, I will take five out and replace them with five fresh faces. The five that I think will fall out of the top 10 are:

• Rob Gronkowski
  INJURY CONCERN: Missed one game last year, nine in 2013, and five in 2012. NEW QB: Tom Brady may or may not be suspended. If he does miss any games, Jimmy Garrapolo will be at the helm. LOWER TD TOTAL: Gronk may be the most consistent source of touchdowns in the game. At some point, defensive coordinators will straight double Gronk on every play and take their chances with Julian Edelman and company. I remember Bill Belichick assigning two linebackers to Tony Gonzalez at the goal line, as if he was a gunner on punt coverage. I believe Rex Ryan employed that tactic as well.

• Jimmy Graham
  INJURY CONCERN: He’s only missed two games in his five-year career so far, but he had a shoulder injury last year that seriously hampered his play. He was traded to the Seahawks, a team that led the league in rushing 53.63% of the time. He’s going to block, whether he likes it or not. That is going to subject him to more punishment and increase the possibility of injury. LOWER TD TOTAL: Same thinking as with Gronk above. In addition, he’s moving to a division with much better cornerbacks and defenses than the NFC South had to offer.

• Julius Thomas
  INJURY CONCERN: Missed three games last year, two in 2013, and 11 in 2011. Already out with an injured hand. NEW QB: He left the friendly confines of Peyton Manning-ville and settled down on Blake Bortles Boulevard.

• Jordan Cameron
  INJURY CONCERN: Missed six games last year, one in 2013, two in 2012, and eight in 2011. Cameron has had multiple concussions in the past, which is a concern because many believe that reoccurrence risk is high. With the league very “sensitive” to this topic, this could become an annoying situation for fantasy owners.

• Zach Ertz
  LOW TD TOTAL: While Ertz is a very talented pass catcher and has supposedly improved his blocking, Brent Celek is still in town. He’s the superior blocker and that seems like the more important characteristic for this version of Chip Kelly’s offense. He signed DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews to run the ball first and foremost. Sam Bradford is not a mobile quarterback, so keeping him upright is of the utmost importance. There are plenty of playmakers that can catch the ball; Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, and Darren Sproles among them.

Here are the five I think can break into the top 10:

• Delanie Walker – ADP #13 TE
  NEW QB: Marcus Mariota was selected with the #2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. He has been impressive so far this preseason. Mariota possesses speed to run around, is smart, and, most importantly, is accurate throwing the ball. Walker caught 63 passes and four touchdowns from Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, and Jake Locker.

• Tyler Eifert – ADP #19 TE
  THIRD YEAR: Eifert has had time to get acclimated to the pro game. MOVED UP DEPTH CHART: Jermaine Gresham is no longer on the team, making Eifert the clear cut man. INJURY PRIOR YEAR: Missed most of 2014 with an elbow injury. 1ST ROUND PICK: Selected with the #21 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. OTHER: While Andy Dalton could be a liability, he has delivered a top five fantasy performance before. The Bengals have a plethora of weapons that should give Eifert plenty of room to operate. A.J. Green, Mohamed Sanu, and Giovani Bernard, with Jeremy Hill pounding it on the ground, should be deadly.

• Eric Ebron – ADP #21 TE
  SECOND YEAR: This will be Ebron’s second year in the league. INJURY PRIOR YEAR: Missed three games in 2014. 1ST ROUND PICK: Selected #10 overall in the 2014 NFL Draft. OTHER: Detroit has the makings of an explosive offense with Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and Ameer Abdullah. There should be plenty of room in the middle for Ebron to exploit. Matthew Stafford said Ebron’s “in store for a breakout fall.”

• Ladarius Green – ADP #23 TE
  INJURY TO TEAMMATE/MOVE UP DEPTH CHART: Antonio Gates is suspended for four games. It’s alleged that he consumed PED’s, which would make sense if you watched Chargers games the last few years. Gates was battling foot problems and was basically plodding around, then he comes out looking like Super Mario Brothers bouncing around all over the place to put up a renaissance season. We’ve seen it time and time again. When an athlete gets off PED’s, the body breaks down and injuries start to surface. The opportunity is there for Green to make an impact in the first four games. It’s possible that he could garner Phillip Rivers’ trust. When Gates does return, he could become second fiddle or get injured.

• Virgil Green – ADP #26 TE
  SCHEME CHANGE: Gary Kubiak is the new leader of the Broncos. He’s known for his zone blocking, run-based offense with plenty of two tight end sets. INJURY TO TEAMMATE/MOVE UP DEPTH CHART: Owen Daniels is 32 years old and hasn’t been a model of health in his career. He missed one game last year, 11 in 2013, one in 2012, one in 2011, five in 2010, eight in 2009, and two his rookie year in 2006. If Daniels does get injured and Green becomes the starting tight end, it will be a boon for his fantasy prospects. Granted, Green hasn’t been Cal Ripken Jr. himself, as he missed three games last year, four in 2012, and one in 2011.

CONCLUSION

It’s tough trying to make predictions based on injury, but that seems to be the history of the tight end position. All I can really focus on are the players that have had injuries in the past. The tight end position is a “onesie” position, as eloquently stated by J.J. Zachariason. There are plenty of starting options on the waiver wire due to the fact that most leagues only require you to start one. Gronkowski offers a huge weekly advantage, but he’s an injury risk himself and the opportunity cost of taking him prevents you from locking down an elite player at running back or wide receiver.

I hope this exercise offered some insight into the tight end position. As with the running back and wide receiver positions, it’s pretty much a given that ADP will be wrong/right 50% of the time. I think just being cognizant of that fact offers value. My wish is that it propagates thought and ultimately skews the pendulum of fantasy fortune into your favor.

Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.  Feel free to ask me anything.