Adrian Peterson could outperform his already-high ranking against the Lions

Week 6 has come and gone and things are starting to level out a bit more, at the expense of my predictions. That’s not always a bad thing. I’ll never root for someone to do poorly for the sake of saying “I told you so,” but it sure does make for a more interesting read.

Six weeks in, trends are starting to become the norm (Peyton Manning), while some things still do not make any sense (Eddie Lacy). Luckily, they are both on bye this week so owners can have an extra seven days to mull over their draft picks, hoping to either get some value for them, or ride it out and hope things turn around.

Before we move onto Week 7, let’s look back Week 6, where we finished 3-5 on predictions, the first week of below 50 percent accuracy.

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Week 6 Recap

For overvalued players, we missed out on Andrew Luck as he put up QB3 numbers and Jimmy Graham, who finally broke out and had a good game, finishing as TE4. Carlos Hyde took a back seat to the passing game and finished as RB28. Antonio Brown keeps making people sad, finishing as WR74, 62 spots off of his WR12 prediction.

Picking undervalued players was rough this week. I am officially hopping off of the Peyton Manning and Shane Vereen trains as they continue to disappoint week in and week out. Manning was ranked 12^th and finished 23^rd after another three-interception game. Vereen’s usage in Tom Coughlin’s system continues to baffle fantasy owners. Even in a game where they were trailing by two scores the entire second half, the pass-catching, change-of-pace back Vereen only saw four carries and one catch, coming on the last drive of the game. Vereen finished with six total yards, good for RB71. Zach Ertz did not light up the Giants and finished as TE18, four off of his TE14 ranking. The only correct pick on this side of the value board was Anquan Boldin, finishing WR28, one better than his projected WR29. Not where I want to be after six weeks, but here we are at 13-14-3, hoping for a more accurate Week 7.

Week 7 Predictions

Onto Week 7, with one change. We have been looking at each week in terms of standard scoring. We are going to switch it up moving forward and look at PPR formats, hoping to unearth some more value than just yardage and touchdowns. Maybe Vereen gets another chance?

This is a big week for players on bye, as the Packers, Bears, Broncos, and Bengals all take Week 7 off. You’ll have to find replacements for Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton and Manning at quarterback. At running back, you’ll be without the services of Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson, Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill, Lacy and Matt Forte. Receiver gets hit hard as well as Randall Cobb, James Jones, A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are out this week. Tyler Eifert, Martellus Bennett, Owen Daniels and Richard Rodgers also will be out of action this week.

So who is too high? Who is too low? Let’s use the ECR Weekly Rankings to find out.

Quarterback

Overvalued: Sam Bradford (QB16 at CAR)
Philadelphia travels to Charlotte for their second straight prime time game as they take on the undefeated Carolina Panthers. Even in a win Monday night, Bradford looked pedestrian at best, throwing three interceptions as the Eagles won in spite of his carelessness. In six games this season Bradford has thrown multiple interceptions four times. Carolina has done a great job of limiting QB production (fourth in fantasy points allowed to QBs) and forcing turnovers (five TD to eight INT) and will be licking their chops to get at Bradford this week.

Undervalued: Jameis Winston (QB24 at WAS)
Washington’s secondary is banged up and are coming off a game where they gave up 253 yards and two touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winston and the Buccaneers are coming off a bye and want to exploit a Redskins’ defense that has given up multiple touchdown passes to opposing QBs in three of the last four games and only has three total interceptions on the season.

Running Back

Overvalued: Dion Lewis (RB9 vs. NYJ)
Lewis has been a PPR machine so far this season, taking over the early down and early game duties as a dual threat, with LeGarrette Blount finishing games and drives off as their hired battering ram. Jets/Patriots games are always ugly and this matchup between the two AFC East rivals may be more of a “Blount” game than a “Lewis” game. Even then, the Jets have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs. Remember, it’s Bill Belichick’s backfield, so what the hell does anyone really know?

Undervalued: Adrian Peterson (RB5 at DET)
It’s hard to be undervalued this high up in the rankings, but Peterson is capable of putting up record numbers every time he plays. This is no different against a team he has feasted off of in his career, with 12 touchdowns (11 rushing, one receiving) in 13 games. Earlier this season he put up 192 yards on them so they know what he can do. Peterson is primed for a huge week.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: Antonio Brown (WR9 at KC)
You aren’t going to sit him because the upside is there, so it’s really a moot point to discuss his value, but you have to discuss his reliance on Ben Roethlisberger more than anyone else in the Steelers’ offense. The Chiefs do give up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but as we have seen over the last few weeks, the likes of Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant may be more inclined to benefit from this matchup. There is a chance he hooks up better with Landry Jones with Michael Vick out, but the fact remains that as long as Roethlisberger is sidelined, Brown is handcuffed as a high-upside WR2.

Undervalued: Danny Amendola (WR45 vs. NYJ)
While the Jets have given up the eighth least amount of fantasy points to wide receivers this season, this is an excellent match up for Amendola as the attention will be on Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edleman, forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere. Amendola is not as explosive or talented as Edelman, but has proven to be a great safety valve for New England to keep defenses honest. He is a great play, especially in deeper leagues. With the return of Brandon LaFell looming, these next few games may go far in determining what role Amendola will be playing for New England down the stretch.

Tight End

Overvalued: Greg Olsen (TE3 vs PHI)
Olsen has been a monster and some people are matchup proof, but the Eagles defense has held tight ends in check all season, with single-digit fantasy outputs in all six games, allowing just one touchdown and 229 total yards. Olsen is coming off a huge game at Seattle, but he may not replicate that success against the underrated Eagles’ defense that just held the Giants and Saints to three total touchdowns over the last two weeks.

Undervalued: Vernon Davis (TE26 vs. SEA)
This is my whim of the week, as Vernon Davis has been ineffective for nearly two years but if you’re dying to find a bye week fill-in for Eifert or Bennett, why not go with Davis, who is playing the Seattle Seahawks this week. Seattle has allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Davis, if healthy, can be dangerous. Anquan Boldin and Carlos Hyde may both miss the tilt with Seattle, making Davis an optimal option to rack up extra targets.

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Trends to Monitor

While I promised I would get off the Vereen train after last week, the Cowboys have been lit up by opposing running backs in the passing game so far in 2015:

• Week 1: Vereen (NYG) 4/46/0
• Week 2: Freeman (ATL) 5/52/0
• Week 3: Murray (PHI) 5/53/0
• Week 4: Spiller (NO) 5/99/1
• Week 5: Lewis (NE) 8/59/1

So if you want one last reason, excuse, or justification to roll with Vereen (or Jennings) this week, do it because Dallas gives up the third most receiving points to running backs. Or because you’re a masochist and have a lot of people on bye this week.

Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere