Jeff Samardzija is going back to the Bay Area and that bodes well for his 2016 outlook

Baseball is almost here! Well, not quite, but it doesn’t mean that it isn’t on the minds of some, if not many. We realize that it’s January, but the offseason has had some moves that will dictate how you draft your fantasy team.

With all the big money flying around, pitchers and hitters alike are in new homes and in some cases, those homes will have an effect on the production that players brings in 2016. To help break down some of the new digs for players that have made moves, we’ve asked our featured experts about what pitchers and hitters will be impacted the most when it comes to fantasy production.

Start preparing for the season with our Mock Draft Simulator

Q1. What pitcher that has changed teams will be impacted the most in fantasy due to their new home?

Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF)
“Samardzija was up to his gills in earned runs last season, but moving from Chicago’s South Side to San Francisco bodes well for the Shark. His change of scenery checks all boxes on a list of things you’d want as fantasy owner — shifting from AL to NL, hitter-friendly to pitcher-friendly park, and an awful to terrific defense. Beyond those benchmarks, Samardzija should be less encumbered by expectations in 2016. Coming off the worst full year of his career, he’ll slot third in the Giants’ rotation on a downright affordable contract (compared to what many other free agent pitchers commanded in the offseason, including his new teammate Johnny Cueto). Lastly, there’s the narrative benefit of Samardzija joining forces with Bruce Bochy and Dave Righetti, a coaching duo celebrated for getting the most out of the Giants’ arsenal of arms.”
– Greg Smith (The Fake Baseball)

I’m always the optimist, so we’ll skip over Zach Greinke’s terrible change of parks, especially since sharp regression was already expected. I absolutely love the new home for Jeff Samardzija – not only for the park, but for the change in pitching staff. After consistently throwing his fastball well over 50% of the time in his career, it dropped to 39.6% last year. To be fair, while not losing velocity, his fastballs were getting murdered. Instead of sticking with it, Don Cooper – who loves his cutters – had Samardzija throwing a boatload of cut-fastballs to compensate. Shark used the pitch 23.1% of the time, nearly double his career-high. I feel like the Giants will have Samardzija going back to his bread-and-butter heavy-fastball usage, and tinker a minor mechanic that had his fastball more hittable last year (a widespread speculation is the pitch had a much slower spin rate – yet same velocity – indicating a minor grip issue). And of course on top of that hopeful correction, he now pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks coming off a season where he gave up more flyballs than usual and a career-high in HR allowed in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. With his fastball not losing steam, some unlucky metrics, and a great new home, I see Shark primed for a bounceback.
– JB Gilpin (Razzball)

Ian Kennedy (SP – KC)
“Usually no longer calling pitcher-friendly Petco Park home isn’t a good thing, but Ian Kennedy should like his new digs with the Royals. According to the 3-year rolling averages at StatCorner, Petco Park has a left-handed batter park factor of 111 for homers and 100 to righties for long balls. Kennedy allowed a career-high 1.66 HR/9 and career-high 17.2% HR/FB, per FanGraphs. Leaving the homer amplifying ways of Petco Park for Kauffman Stadium and its park factors for homers of 84 and 76 for lefties and righties, respectively, will help him normalize his home run rates closer to their career marks of 1.12 HR/9 and 10.7% HR/FB. As an added bonus, he moves from a team that ranked 29th in team defense to the three-year reigning top team defense in baseball, according to FanGraphs.”
– Josh Shepardson (Daily Fantasy Cafe)

Scott Kazmir (SP – LAD)
“I’m not sure there are any extreme situations, but I think the move to the National League and Dodger Stadium will help Scott Kazmir maintain his effectiveness throughout the year. His strikeouts should tick up and pitching in LA, San Diego, and San Francisco will be a good thing.”
– Doug Anderson (FNTSY)

Q2. What hitter that has changed teams will be impacted the most in fantasy due to their new home?

Jason Heyward (CF, RF – CHI)
“Heyward is entering a potentially lucrative fantasy situation with his divisional move from the Cardinals to the Cubs. Wrigley tends to favor righties more than lefties, but Heyward’s new home park is much more conducive to home runs than his previous two homes in St. Louis and Atlanta. He’s only 26 and already has a 27-homer season on his resume, so topping 20 dingers in 2016 to go with his standard 20-plus steals should be easy. Meanwhile, Heyward’s exceptional on-base skills should lead to increased counting-stat production now that he’s a part of the Cubs’ otherworldly lineup. I expect a top-25 fantasy breakout from Heyward this year, similar to Michael Brantley’s 2014 season.”
– Greg Smith (The Fake Baseball)

Byung-ho Park (1B – MIN)
“You can’t help fantasy squads if you’re in the KBO, can you? Of course not. Yes, I’m cheating a bit discussing Byung-ho Park, but the “Bat-flip Legend” has huge raw power that will travel to the states. Fellow former KBO member Jung-ho Kang made the successful transition last year, albeit he started slowly in a reserve/utility role before exploding as a regular down the stretch (.268 AVG and four homers in the first half and .310 AVG and 11 homers in the second half). Park is worth rolling the dice on as a corner infield or utility option for power-hungry gamers.”
– Josh Shepardson (Daily Fantasy Cafe)

Justin Upton (LF – DET)
I love the new home for Upton this season. The ink is still drying on his contract with the Tigers, and it’s hard not to get excited for the best batting order he’s ever been a part of. Sure the Diamondbacks had some nice offenses several years ago, but hitting amongst Miggy, J.D. Martinez, and hopefully a bounce back from Victor Marinez, they should provide a great opportunity for counting stats. Even with some awfully cold slumps, Upton maintained a nice OBP last year (.336 despite hitting .251) attributed to an 11.0% walk rate. His BABIP was a career-low by .15 points in 2015, and he still scored 85 runs on a terrible Padres team. On the Tigers, I don’t think he’ll have any issue getting 100 R and 100 RBI, while hitting for a decent average and slugging 25-30 homers. He’s had HR numbers in that range the past three seasons in pitcher-friendly ballparks, so I’m not worried about Comerica in the least. Maybe we see the steals go back down into the single digits, but the rest of his numbers should make him a bottom end top-10 OF.
– JB Gilpin (Razzball)

Gerardo Parra (LF,CF,RF – COL)
“Assuming he gets a full-time gig, the move to Coors turns Parra from a useful piece into possibly a top-30 type outfielder. The effects of the humidor have been greatly exaggerated. ”
– Doug Anderson (FNTSY)

—

Thank you to our experts for contributing their thoughts on the offseason moves. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and take their advice to our Mock Draft Simulator.