Le’Veon Bell’s disastrous season is a prime example of why fantasy owners shouldn’t take rushers in the first round
Even while the confetti continues to fall on Peyton Manning and the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos in Santa Clara, most of us are already starting to look ahead to the next NFL season. Looking ahead, a lot of our focus will soon shift to the upcoming NFL Draft, which will begin on April 28, meaning we only have to wait (just over) two months for our next NFL event.
While the countdown to the 2016 NFL season beings now, let’s take a look back to review what we saw in 2015. With that, here are five things we learned from the 2015 fantasy football season.
Quarterbacks dominate fantasy again in 2015
While QBs did makeup 18 of the top 20 fantasy scorers in 2015, this year was different in a number of ways. But first, let’s reiterate that quarterbacks had a great year in 2015, setting another record for fantasy points at the position with over 8,704 (beating the previous 2013 record by nearly 500 points). The thing that made 2015 different was the wave of new QBs that had solid fantasy seasons while several big name studs struggled with injuries or had down seasons.
For example, two of the top four quarterbacks selected in most 2015 fantasy drafts failed to finish in the top 25 in scoring at the position (those QBs were Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning). Also, the first 10 QBs selected (on average) in the draft missed a total of 21 games with injuries throughout 2015.
Due to this, the landscape shifted for fantasy QBs, with a few new names popping up at the top of the scoring list, including Cam Newton (first with a league-leading 389 fantasy points), Russell Wilson (third with 336 points) and Blake Bortles (fourth with 316 points). To be fair, Tom Brady was second in the league with 343 points, and he is not a new name on this list.
This new wave of young guns makes quarterback one of the deepest positions in fantasy football heading into 2016. Due to the depth at the position, it will allow your team to stock up in other areas early in the draft, especially if you miss out on a top-tier QB in the first few rounds.
On the flip side, you still can’t approach the position too casually, especially following a season where several teams got lucky when late round/undrafted guys turned into studs (examples include Andy Dalton, Bortles and Kirk Cousins). Overall, your fantasy team will need a great-to-solid quarterback to win, but with so many solid quarterbacks in the league now, it may be safer than ever to wait on your QB for your 2016 squad.
Two wide receivers rose above the pack in 2015
Like quarterbacks, fantasy scoring for wide receivers continued to increase in 2015. Receivers also set a single-season record for fantasy points in 2015, beating their 2014 mark by nearly 200 points. This aligns with the NFL becoming a pass happy league, as 2015 marks the sixth year in a row WRs set a record for fantasy points in a season.
Although this season was a great year for several wideouts, the uptick in receiver scoring was paced by two players in 2015. The first player is Julio Jones, who finished second in scoring at the position with 239 points (standard scoring) and led the league in receiving yards.
With an ADP of 16 heading into the season, Jones provided great return for an, on average, second round pick. After a huge year from Jones, his ADP will be much lower next season, and he will be a top target for anyone drafting in the top half of the first round in 2016.
The second receiver who dominated 2015 is Antonio Brown, who had an incredible year and is the likely non-quarterback MVP of the fantasy football season. Brown finished first in scoring for WRs with 246 points (again, standard scoring) and finished just behind Jones with 1,834 receiving yards (to compare, DeAndre Hopkins in third place had 1,521 yards).
Similar to Jones, Brown ranked sixth in ADP heading into the season and outplayed that ranking over the course of the year. After a dominant season, Brown will be a guaranteed top five pick and, after a rough year for fantasy running backs, he could easily be the consensus No. 1 overall pick heading into 2016.
2015 was a rough year for top fantasy RBs
Unlike quarterbacks and receivers, 2015 was very rough on fantasy running backs. Scoring was drastically down for RBs this season, with only two players scoring more than 200 fantasy points. And while those two backs, Devonta Freeman and Adrian Peterson, had great years, it’s unlikely for running backs to dominate the first round of fantasy drafts in 2016 like in years past.
This is due to a majority of the backs ranked in the preseason top 20 suffering through uneven seasons, whether from poor play or severe injuries. That long list includes players such as Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray. Each of those players had an ADP of no higher than eight, meaning each was, on average, a first round pick.
The sad part about 2015 is that most of the top players didn’t get a chance to prove themselves, as their seasons were cut short due to massive injuries (as was the case with Bell, Charles and Lynch). The result was a top five that had several new names, including players from the later rounds of the draft or waiver wire pickups. For 2015, the top five scorers for at the position were Devonta Freeman (ADP of 40), Adrian Peterson (ADP of 1), Doug Martin (ADP of 29), DeAngelo Williams (ADP of 44) and Todd Gurley (ADP of 24).
This scattering of top five players shows the unpredictability of the position and how injuries can ravage a back’s season. Looking ahead to 2016, a change at the top of the draft may be likely. With RB scoring on the downward trend and WR scoring continuing to climb, don’t be surprised to see a first round filled with receivers, especially for those of you in PPR leagues.
New fantasy studs are emerging at the tight end position
For the past several seasons, there was a small group of elite fantasy tight ends near the top of every draft (guys like Rob Gronkowski or Greg Olsen) and, if your lineup didn’t include one of them, your team was fighting an uphill battle. And while both Gronk and Olsen had great seasons again in 2015, a few new names emerged to challenge them at the top of the 2016 draft. At this point, there seems to be a clear-cut top five regarding fantasy tight ends heading into next season.
After huge seasons from Gary Barnidge, Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker, the tight end position seems to be evening out (or at least expanding at the top). To prove that, five tight ends scored 140 fantasy points or more in 2015, which is the most ever reach that number. Plus, the sixth-ranked tight end, Tyler Eifert, nearly missed the mark, scoring 139 points while leading all tight ends with 13 touchdown receptions.
This is great news heading into 2016, as it will ease the burden to pull the trigger with an early draft pick and score a top fantasy tight end. Plus, the list above doesn’t include other solid fantasy options like Travis Kelce (seventh in scoring at the position) or Julius Thomas (who missed four games with an injury).
Overall, the tight end position, just like quarterback, is deeper than it’s ever been. So while it’s still smart to grab a top tier tight end early, it won’t hurt your team to wait until the later rounds to grab your guy.
D/ST still comes down to a roll of the dice
One position in fantasy football that always seems to come down to an educated guess is the defense/special teams units. While there are always rock solid teams that lurk at the top of the list for scoring season after season (think Seattle the last few years), each year has a surprise team that seems to jump into the top five.
This season was no different, as the Kansas City Chiefs outplayed their pre-draft ranking (14th at the position) to end the season ranked as the second-highest scoring defensive unit in the NFL. To show how good the Chiefs were this year, the team’s defense/special teams scored an impressive 186 fantasy points this season. That is only one point behind the Broncos, the unanimous best defense in the NFL in 2015 and top scoring unit in fantasy this season.
When looking ahead to 2016, the trend for predicting the top D/ST units each year will likely remain difficult. Even peaking back at pre-draft rankings before the 2015 season shows us that teams such as the Buffalo Bills (second) and Miami Dolphins (seventh) were ranked in the top 10, but failed to finish in the top 15 for scoring at the position (the Bills finished 20th while the Dolphins finished 22nd).
On the flip side, there were several teams similar to Kansas City, like the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers, who were ranked in the 15-20 range in pre-draft rankings but finished in the top 10 for scoring at the position. Minnesota was ranked 17th and finished eighth, Pittsburgh was 20th in the preseason, but finished seventh.
With that, the 2015 season was like many other seasons in regards to D/ST units. There are always one or two teams that everyone would love to add to their roster, but there also a handful of teams that nobody wants that end up being very valuable. Due to this, it’s probably best to save your D/ST pick to one of the last rounds of your draft, along with your kicker.
So, while it’s tempting to take a big name earlier in your draft, it’s best to wait and stock up on position players in the earlier rounds. It still may be a guessing game, but the numbers show that there is a top 10 unit waiting for you in the final rounds of your draft.
Brad Behrens is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brad, check out his archive or follow him @_BradBehrens.
