Last time on Players on the Move we examined the very competitive teams of the NL Central, and which fresh faces should expect a change in fantasy production this season due to their new home fields. This week we turn to the NL East, which should expect a shakeup in the standings this season due to the changing positions of some of the franchises.
The Nationals have dreams of a World Series title, but will the addition of yet another dominant starting pitcher be enough to finally get them over the hump? The Braves are in full on rebuild-mode after another disappointing campaign in 2014, and it doesn’t look like they will be fielding a competent big-league roster until their new park opens in 2017. The Marlins made several significant moves this winter, and hopefully their young core, built around stud Giancarlo Stanton, can make a trip to the playoffs this season. The Phillies are still the Phillies, although they did manage to finally part ways with one of their long-time veterans Jimmy Rollins; a step in the right direction. And finally the Mets, who were thrilled to be getting one young ace, Matt Harvey, back from injury, only to lose another, Zack Wheeler, to a season-ending ailment. Most of baseball will be watching the Nationals and their quest for a ring, but the race for second place between New York and Miami is equally exciting in my book. Without further hesitation, let’s take a look at some of the players who will be suiting up in new jerseys this season.
Washington Nationals
Notable Newly Acquired Players
Max Scherzer, SP
Scherzer shocked most of the baseball world this winter when he chose to sign on with the Nationals creating, by far, the best rotation in baseball. Scherzer has been terrific over the past two seasons, posting ERAs of 2.90 and 3.15 and strikeout-to-walk ratios of 4.29 and 4.00. Last year Scherzer posted a 2.68 ERA at home in Comerica Park, one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the league. The former Cy Young winner will now be pitching his home games in Nationals Park, a stadium notorious for limiting runs. Add the fact that Scherzer also makes the move to a weaker National League, and a very weak year for the NL East in general, and you have the makings for another Cy Young-type season. Scherzer’s numbers don’t show any real reason to expect him to regress this year, and I think with a very solid defense behind him he has a good shot of leading this team to the World Series. The experts seem to be split on Scherzer this season. Half of them say he’s due to regress, and the other half expect him to outperform even his Cy Young-winning season. My opinion, he puts up numbers slightly better than last year. A sub-three ERA and a WHIP below 1.10 is very realistic coming from one of the best pitchers in the league.
Atlanta Braves
Notable Newly Acquired Players
Nick Markakis, RF
Markakis signed a highly criticized four-year, $44 million contract early in the offseason after Atlanta shipped Jason Heyward to St. Louis. The move doesn’t make much sense for an Atlanta team attempting to rebuild their roster over the next few seasons, but like it or not, Markakis now becomes one of Atlanta’s better hitters. Markakis has been durable over the past six seasons, playing over 150 games in all but one of them, and he has a career OPS of close to .800. My first thought when checking out Markakis’ numbers were that he was aided greatly by Camden Yards, which is known as one of the more lefty-friendly parks in the bigs. But upon closer look I discovered that Markakis actually had similar home and away splits over the past three seasons, leading me to believe that he would produced no matter what ballpark he called home. Markakis did not face many teams in the NL East during his stint in Baltimore, but he did post a .319/.360/.638 line against Washington in 47 at-bats. The move to Atlanta certainly won’t help out his numbers, but I doubt it hurts them much either. Markakis’ ADP is 283.2, which is behind stiffs like Torii Hunter, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran and Josh Hamilton. Markakis may not be an elite outfielder, and he hits too few home runs, but he doesn’t strike out a lot and should give owners at least 140 games this season. He’s worth a late-round pick up in most leagues, and could surprise some people this season.
Shelby Miller, SP
Miller came over as the major piece acquired in the Heyward deal after a little more than two years at the big-league level in St. Louis. In Miller, the Braves are hoping to have landed a young, team-controlled pitcher who could potentially be groomed into a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come. The Braves saw most of their success over the past few decades assembling a young, dynamic pitching staff that helped lead the team to 14-straight division titles, and they hope to do that again with young guns Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Miller. But Miller took a big step backwards last season after a sparking rookie campaign that saw him toss 173.1 innings while striking out 169 batters and walking only 57. Miller posted a 3.06 ERA in 2013, but that number rose to 3.74 in 2014 when he failed to command the strike zone the way he did in his rookie year. Miller saw his strikeout-to-walk ratio fall to 1.74 in 2014, which won’t get it done if he hopes to be a No. 1 starter. The park conditions in Atlanta are similar to those in St. Louis, so Miller won’t be receiving any help there. Miller won’t turn 25 until October, and with two years of big-league experience under his belt, this season could be his breaking-out party if things fall right. Miller’s ADP is 258.3, which seems slightly low but probably fair. He falls behind guys like Derek Holland, Jake Odorizzi and Danny Salazar which is right about where he belongs. The breakout potential is there this season, and any pitcher is going to be moderately successful with human vacuum cleaner Andrelton Simmons playing shortstop behind him, but I think Miller’s numbers will be similar to his 2013 performance. If he can strikeout a few more batters and keep the walks down this kid could be an All-Star in 2015.
Miami Marlins
Notable Newly Acquired Players
Dee Gordon, 2B
Gordon comes over to Miami after a trade with the Dodgers in exchange for a package highlighted by highly-regarded pitching prospect Andrew Heaney. Gordon came out of the gates on fire in 2014, posting a very nice .742 OPS before the All-Star break while stealing 43 bases. Gordon looked primed for a breakout year, and Dodgers fans were thinking they had their second baseman of the future. But as the season progressed Gordon’s weaknesses were exposed, and his numbers decreased across the board. His OPS dropped to a below-average .648, and he was caught stealing 10 times in 31 chances. He still finished the season with 64 steals, and the Marlins saw enough potential to give up a top prospect like Heaney. Gordon may actually see an uptick in his stats this season, that is if he can show better place discipline. Dodger Stadium is long known for limiting hitters’ production, and Gordon should benefit from the hitter-friendly confines of Marlins Park. Miami is a young, speedy team that should be able to get on base, meaning that Gordon should nearly double his 34 RBI from a season ago. Expect his speed to stick around for another few years, but I’d guess his steal total drops to around 50. His ADP is too high for me, as he is being taken over guys like Brian Dozier and Jason Kipnis. But the upside for Gordon is there, and if you are looking to win the steals category, the speedster alone might help you take the crown. Look for his numbers to increase slightly, but not enough to be taken as highly as his ADP suggests.
Mat Latos, SP
Latos struggled through several injuries in 2014, and they limited him to just 102.1 innings for the Reds. Even while fighting through knee and elbow ailments, Latos still managed an ERA of 3.25 and a 1.15 WHIP, while posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly three-to-one. Latos looked solid in his first few seasons in the league pitching for San Diego in a very pitcher-friendly atmosphere. But when Latos was dealt to Cincinnati following the 2011 campaign there were questions whether he could survive the launching pad better known as Great American Park. In 2012 Latos gave up 25 home runs in a little over 200 innings, but despite all of those long balls he still managed an FIP of 3.85, only slightly worse than his previous seasons in San Diego. Latos then calmed down in 2013, allowing just 14 home runs in over 210 innings of work, making people think he was ready to make the leap and become a truly elite pitcher. 2014 was somewhat of a lost season because of the injuries, and Latos was dealt to Miami this winter for the last season of his contract. He lands in a park that limits home runs more than nearly every other park in the majors and his outfield with the Marlins is much improved over what he had to work with in Cincinnati. Latos currently has an ADP of 164.3, but the injuries to Cliff Lee, Marcus Stroman and Zack Wheeler have not been factored into the list yet so he should go slightly earlier than that. He still finds himself going later than guys like Michael Wacha, Yordano Ventura and Jered Weaver. Latos could very well return to form this season and become the ace that the Marlins need until Jose Fernandez returns from his injury. Fantasy owners should expect big things from Latos, as long as he can remain healthy.
New York Mets
Notable Newly Acquired Players
Michael Cuddyer, RF
Cuddyer makes his way to the Big Apple after playing three years in hitter’s paradise Coors Field. He never posted an OPS under .800 with Colorado, but he turns 36 this month, and those seasons with a .300-plus average will soon fade. Cuddyer missed over 100 games last season while dealing with several injuries, but the Mets are hoping he can return to form and join Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares to make one of the best outfields in the National League. Best-case scenario for Cuddyer and the Mets is that he plays over 140 games, and puts up numbers similar to those in 2010 with the Twins, .271/.336/.417 with 14 home runs and 81 RBI. In his last three seasons, Cuddyer averaged an OPS of .984 at home and .795 on the road. Mets owners and fantasy owners alike would be thrilled if he averaged an OPS of near .800 again this season, but an aging, injured corner outfielder just isn’t someone I want to risk drafting this season. Cuddyer is being selected around the same time as guys like Steven Souza, Joc Pederson and Adam Eaton, and I would rather have any of them over the veteran. The risks just outweigh the potential ceiling for Cuddyer in my opinion, and I am avoiding him in all leagues, at least at his current value.
Philadelphia Phillies
Notable Newly Acquired Players
Aaron Harang, SP
Harang arrives in Philly after a very successful one-year deal with Atlanta where he threw over 200 innings for the first time since 2007. Harang posted a solid 3.57 ERA, but his auxiliary numbers stand out a bit. He had a 1.40 WHIP and his 2.27 strikeout-to-walk ratio is underwhelming, but his home run percentage dropped to a career-low 1.7 percent last season in Atlanta. Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is home to more home runs per season than nearly every other park in the league, and the Phillies may have found a pitcher that can thrive there. Harang is a groundball pitcher who gives up almost no long balls, and doesn’t walk a high number of batters. Sure, teams will put the ball in play against him, and the Phillies infield is nothing compared to Atlanta’s, but Harang should still see some success on his new club. Harang is being taken very late, or not at all in some drafts, but the veteran should log tons of innings this season. He could potentially be the team’s No. 1 starter if Cole Hamels is traded, now that Cliff Lee has hit the 60-day DL. I have taken Harang as a late-round flier in a few of my drafts, and he could be a nice surprise this season for the Phillies.
11 Players on the Move: NL West
8 Players on the Move: NL Central
Andrew Chambers is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @beardedsports8.