There are several things going in Jameis Winston’s favor that could serve to boost his fantasy value

Derek Lofland discusses why he thinks Jameis Winston is generally undervalued going into this season.

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One thing that always amazes me when it comes to fantasy football rankings is how players that are on the upswing still manage to be ranked lower than what they finished the season before. I think one of the prime examples of that phenomenon in 2016 is Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston.

Let’s start with how he did in his rookie 2015 season. As a 21-year old rookie, he passed for 4,042 yards, 22 touchdowns and just 15 interceptions. He also added 219 yards rushing and six rushing touchdowns. The result was that he was the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback. His 279 fantasy points (

The result was that he was the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback. His 279 fantasy points (Pro Football Reference) compared favorably to San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers (286) and New York Giants QB Eli Manning (288).

Yet for some reason, that is not being reflected in FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings). He is the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback in those rankings, despite that solid rookie campaign. Now, there are several reasons that players will regress. Sometimes a key player leaves in free agency or there

Sometimes a key player leaves in free agency or there is a coaching change and the new scheme is not advantageous to a player. Age decline can be an issue, although that is certainly not a concern with the 22-year-old Winston.

Sometimes a player does not take fitness seriously in the off-season, such as Buffalo Bills RB Karlos Williams. He gained weight eating with his pregnant fiancé this off-season, before being dinged with a four-game suspension, which is another reason a player can regress following a good season. I am not sure why many experts are so low on Winston this year, but I have four big reasons why I think he can be even better in 2016 than he was in his stellar 2015 campaign.

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1) He is taking fitness seriously
This looks like a player that is committed to being a great player. He weighed in the upper 240 lbs. range at the Pro Bowl; ESPN.com is reporting that he has lost 18 lbs. since February. That shows me a player that is taking his job seriously and is not content with what he did in his rookie campaign. It should serve him well this year as he is going to be asked to do more in the offense and he needs to be in great physical condition.

That shows me a player that is taking his job seriously and is not content with what he did in his rookie campaign. It should serve him well this year as he is going to be asked to do more in the offense and he needs to be in great physical condition.

2) New head coach with an improved offensive scheme
I have never been a Lovie Smith fan when it comes to the offensive side of the football and Winston was still the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback last year, despite the fact that the Buccaneers ranked 22nd in passing attempts and eighth in rushing attempts. Take of Frame Network is reporting that new head coach Dirk Koetter said that he wants Winston to “test the boundaries” of the offense.

For those worried that Winston will need time to learn that offense, a big advantage for Winston over players that are going through a coaching change is that Koetter was the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator last year. There will be no change in verbiage, this will be the same offense with Winston asked to do more in his sophomore campaign. That should result in more passing attempts and better fantasy numbers.

3) The Buccaneers re-signed RB Doug Martin
Had they lost Martin in free agency, there would be concerns that without his 1,673 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, Winston would struggle with a weaker running game and without Martin to be that safety valve and pass blocker in the offense. They have Martin back, which will help significantly.

They should also have WR Vincent Jackson and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins for the full season; Jackson missed six games and ASJ missed nine games due to injury last year. They also added G J.R. Sweezy in free agency, which should help upgrade the offensive line. A stronger supporting cast could help Winston put up bigger numbers this year.

4) WR Mike Evans should be due for a bounceback year
Let’s say that Winston was the 12th rated fantasy quarterback, but WR Mike Evans had exploded for 110 receptions, 1,500 yards receiving and 16 receiving touchdowns. There could be concern that there is no way Evans will duplicate that season and that without those insane numbers, Winston is due for a decrease in production. Instead, what happened is Winston was the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback, despite Evans having only 74 receptions for 1,206 yards and three receiving touchdowns. That was a big drop from his 2014 rookie

Instead, what happened is Winston was the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback, despite Evans having only 74 receptions for 1,206 yards and three receiving touchdowns. That was a big drop from his 2014 rookie season when Evans posted 12 receiving touchdowns.

Evans should bounce back in 2016 and if he has double-digit touchdowns, Winston could easily reach 30 touchdown passes. I cannot see Evans having 15 drops for a second straight season and being invisible in the red zone for a second straight year. He’s too big at 6’ 5” and 231 lb. to have only three touchdowns receptions. Plus, even if he does not rebound and he is a bust, Winston was the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback with Evans playing horrifically last year.

He’s too big at 6’5” and 231 lb. to have only three touchdowns receptions. Plus, even if he does not rebound and he is a bust, Winston was the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback with Evans playing horrifically last year.

I know people worry about sophomore slumps, but sophomore slumps are overrated. Miami Dolphins QB Dan Marino had his best season in his second year when he threw for 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns in 1984. Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning (1998 to 1999) Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (2012 to 2013) and Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck (2012 to 2013) improved in their second years in terms of fantasy quarterback ranking.

I think to just assume Winston is going to have a sophomore slump is ignoring all the good things that have happened in Tampa Bay this off-season. Winston is down almost 20 lb., the offensive scheme is going to be more friendly to passing numbers, Winston is going to be asked to shoulder more responsibility, there were no big free agent defections on offense and WR Mike Evans was a non-factor last year and should bounce back this year.

The experts seem to believe that Evans will bounce back; he was Pro Football Reference’s 27th ranked fantasy receiver last year and he has an ECR of 10 this year. Most experts still have Martin as a top-10 fantasy back; his ECR is eight. If those things happen, I think that Winston will be closer to the

If those things happen, I think that Winston will be closer to the ninth-ranked player I have him at than the 16th ranking that he currently has in the ECR. He is too promising of a player and there are too many good signs for him to regress that much in his sophomore year.

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