The early portion of Round 1 was dominated by WRs
After the success of the MLB Mock Draft before the 2016 baseball season, FantasyPros is back with a live NFL draft as we move closer to the 2016 NFL season. We here at FantasyPros have selected 12 correspondents, again including myself, to conduct this live draft of a PPR league with a QB, two RB, three WR, TE, K, DEF, three FLEX players, and six bench players. Keep track of live updates of the Mock Draft @thezman2010.
There was an obvious theme in the first round of the draft, as the first five picks were all WR and Rob Gronkowski made six receivers selected in the first seven picks. This league is PPR, making it even more vital to have a stud WR early in the draft, but the NFL is so pass-happy and the WR crop is so talented that you can expect many of the first rounders in the FantasyPros’ draft to go in the first round of your draft. While most will have the thought to pick up at least one stud in the early rounds, there could be others that look to the ability to load up at RB with players that can catch the ball as well or also with a top-tier QB.
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1.01 Mike Vincent: Antonio Brown (PIT – WR)
Brown has been the most consistent player over the last two seasons. Combine his consistency with his ceiling, and you have the most dangerous player in fantasy. Also in his favor is that the Pittsburgh offense will be without Le’Veon Bell for four games and Martavis Bryant for the season. Neither Sammie Coates nor Markus Wheaton has been able to step up and take the WR2 role and run away with it. It also may take some time for Ladarius Green to gain the trust Ben Roethlisberger had with Heath Miller. Target share is there, and Pittsburgh’s defense — at least the secondary — has been “trash emoji,” so there will be plenty of big games for AB.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Brown WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.02 Neil Dutton: Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG – WR)
Despite the drafting of Sterling Shepard and the “return” of Victor Cruz, Beckham is still the offense with Big Blue. Playing on a pass-happy team, assuming he finally plays all 16 games, he’s a lock for nearly 200 targets. His touchdown rate gives him the edge over Julio Jones for me.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Beckham Jr. WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.03 Derek Norton: Julio Jones (ATL – WR)
No need to overthink this one. Julio’s stats last year (136-1,871-8) lined up with the monster we saw on the field. There’s no reason to think the production will stop, either. He led the league in targets (204) and appears to be healthy. If Matt Ryan were more consistent in the red zone, Julio would probably be the top pick. Like Brown and Beckham, he has the potential to re-write the record books in 2016. Bake your leaguemates a cake if you get him later than this, especially in PPR formats.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Jones WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.04 Matt Terelle: A.J. Green (CIN – WR)
Green is going to get all the targets he can handle and then some this season. With Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones gone and Tyler Eifert recovering from ankle surgery, Green’s main competition for targets is rookie Tyler Boyd and offseason addition Brandon LaFell. Expect the Bengals to throw a good deal more than they did last year with Hue Jackson now in Cleveland. Keep in mind the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens all had poor secondaries last season and are expected to once again this year. That’s six plus matchups for Green just within his own division.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Green WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.05 Chris Zolli: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU – WR)
While he was the fifth WR taken in this draft, Hopkins’ 2015 production (111 receptions for 1521 yards and 11 TD) cannot be understated, and the additions of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller should see those numbers stay the same if not improve. Hopkins was targeted 192 times in 2015, including 11 or more targets in 14 of 17 games, and an improved running game should give Osweiler a cleaner pocket to throw in, allowing Hopkins to catch more than 57.8% of his targets. Considering that Osweiler completed nearly 62% of his passes last season and that Hopkins now has rookie WRs Will Fuller and Braxton Miller to give him support, look for Hopkins to surpass his 2015 totals.
QB- RB- RB- WR- WR-Hopkins WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.06 Dan Harris: Todd Gurley (LA – RB)
The sixth pick is not my favorite spot in PPR drafts, as I think there’s a drop off after the first five receivers without a clear number six. Although I would love to walk out of the first round with a receiver, I just could not pass up Gurley and his combination of safety and tantalizing upside. Last year, playing on a terrible team and coming off a torn ACL, Gurley was fantastic, averaging 91.6 rushing yards per game in the 12 games in which he played. Those numbers are particularly impressive given the abysmal Rams’ passing attack that ranked last in the league in total yards. It’s true, he caught only 21 passes for 188 yards in those 12 games, which seemingly limits his upside in PPR formats. Even though his upside with receptions is limited, Gurley specifically said that he was focused on improving his route running and becoming a better receiver this offseason. If he can increase his activity in the passing game and stay healthy all season, Gurley should be a monster in both PPR and standard formats.
QB- RB-Gurley RB- WR- WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.07 Nick Tapas: Rob Gronkowski (NE – TE)
With the seventh pick, I fully expected to be taking either DeAndre Hopkins or A.J. Green coming into the draft. Obviously, five of the first six owners ahead of me took the same “no RB” approach to the first round. Given all of the uncertainty at the RB position this season, particularly in a PPR league, he was only torn between Gronkowski and Dez Bryant when on the clock. Notwithstanding Brady’s four-game suspension to open the season, Gronkowski offers the very high upside and consistency you want in a first-round pick, and he has reported to camp healthy. 12th in receiving yards in 2015 with 1,176 (to go with 11 TDs and 16.3 YPC), Gronk comes into drafts with a FantasyPros ECR of 8th overall (ADP of 12) in PPR leagues. Even if considered a slight overreach at seven with David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliot still available, you can’t go wrong with Gronkowski in a PPR format even if his ceiling takes a slight hit the first four weeks of the season without Brady under center.
QB- RB- RB- WR- WR- WR- TE-Gronkowski K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.08 Stan Son: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL – RB)
The recent hamstring injury definitely gives me some pause, but I like the talent and situation too much. The Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in the game and are committed to running the ball. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are back, so opposing defenses will be hard-pressed to stack the box. In addition, Elliot is an excellent pass blocker and catcher, so he should on the field most of the time.
QB- RB-Elliott RB- WR- WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.09 Anthony Cervino: Dez Bryant (DAL – WR)
Bryant at the 9th overall slot in a PPR format appears to be a bit of a reach, especially with David Johnson still on the board, but the Dallas Cowboys have the nucleus to become an offensive juggernaut in 2016 with one of the league’s best o-line’s, the return of Tony Romo and the addition of Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott’s presence running behind that front five disables the opposing defense from playing the pass as they will have to honor the run which will leave Bryant in favorable matchups. Bryant is coming off a disappointing 2015 campaign that began with contractual discrepancies with the team and him reportedly entering camp out of shape. His tumultuous offseason translated into a rough season on the field with and without Tony Romo under center and injuries ultimately put the dagger into his disastrous campaign. In 2016, Bryant has the upside to return to his borderline-elite level of play that he showcased during the 2014 season where he caught 88 targets for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns including four 100-yard receiving games. This was a pick of a career’s worth of consistency versus one season of sub-par production.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Bryant WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.10 Adam Sutton: Lamar Miller (HOU – RB)
This might come as a bit of a head scratcher, but Adam just cannot get hyped up like everyone else in regards to David Johnson in that crowded Arizona backfield. Consider this: Miller finished inside the top-10 in PPR formats the last two seasons, yet he was vastly underutilized in Miami. This lack of usage led him to sign with Houston this past offseason. Last season, Miller received at least 18 touches in just three out of 16 games, while Arian Foster (who Miller is replacing) carried the ball at least 18 times in 13 out of his last 17 games as a member of the Texans. Foster averaged 22.5 overall touches during that same span. If you extrapolate this with Miller’s fantasy points per touch in PPR formats over the last two seasons, he would average just over 20 fantasy points per contest. For context, Devonta Freeman topped all running backs in 2015 with 21 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring.
QB- RB-Miller RB- WR- WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.11 Matt Barbato: Adrian Peterson (MIN – RB)
I was thrilled to have Peterson fall into his lap at No. 11. Yes, he isn’t a PPR fiend and probably won’t yield much worth in this format. But he’s still arguably the safest tailback out there at a position that yields nothing but uncertainty. Simply put, this was a best player available selection that didn’t exactly cater to the format. David Johnson was also considered, but I could see Arizona utilizing more of a timeshare than we think. Peterson is still a beast at age 31 after rushing for 1,485 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, and he has arguably the highest floor of all the tailbacks, barring injury. With a quick turnaround, I can still snag a high-caliber receiver at the top of the second round.
QB- RB-Peterson RB- WR- WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
1.12 Dan Marcus: David Johnson (ARI – RB)
There are reports floating around that David Johnson will be in a timeshare this season with Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington. While there is not yet clarity on that, Johnson certainly won’t find himself on the sideline for long spans of time this season. Workload aside, Johnson has already illustrated the impact he can make on fantasy teams. He also made an impact in the passing game last season, which will give him a nice boost in PPR formats.
QB- RB-Johnson RB- WR- WR- WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him@thezman2010.
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