So the Portland versus Minnesota game was postponed because the court was too slippery. As a Chicago Bears fan, I know all too well what a bad playing surface looks like. If you do not know what I am talking about, just read this article from the Chicago Tribune that talks about how the Bears have the third worst playing surface in the NFL. Okay, so you did not take time to read it, I understand. Then just take my word for it, it is bad! Well, the Portland versus Minnesota game was postponed way before lineups locked, so hopefully you saw the news in time. Even without that game, there were 11 games to choose from.
Tonight, not so many. Instead, we only have three games to pick our players from. I have looked at the slate and here are the guys I think are worth targeting.
Help yourself out by checking out our NBA Optimal Lineup for today’s slate
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook (OKC): $13,400 vs. POR
Here is the thing. With such a small slate, Westbrook is in play. Even with this ridiculously high price tag. He should still be able to hit 5x value for cash games and with such a small slate, you need guys to get points more than worrying about hitting value. Westbrook may only give you 4x value, but that is still 53.6 DraftKings points. He put up 66 DraftKings points against Portland three games ago, but his two previous games were 57.5 and 35.5 points. Although Westbrook is in consideration and I feel obligated to mention him with such a small slate, I will be looking elsewhere because the DvP is actually not great against Portland. The only way I play Westbrook is if chalk value opens up closer to lineup lock due to injuries or illness.
Damian Lillard (POR): $8,800 @ OKC
Here is who I will have more exposure to than Westbrook. John Wall is an option too as the Suns have basically given up on the season, but I prefer Lillard’s discount – especially for cash games. In their two previous games, Lillard has averaged 49 DraftKings points. This is a slight bump in pace and DvP matchup for Lillard too. His usage rate in both games against the Thunder was above 30 percent. Lillard has been averaging 47 percent shooting over his last five games and with such a small slate I will have around or over 50 percent exposure.
Other options:
- D’Angelo Russell (LAL): $7,000 @ DAL (GPP)
- Tyler Ulis (PHO): $4,600 vs. WAS (Both)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal (WAS): $7,800 @ PHO
I only like Beal for cash games. He has the upside for tournaments, but his price tag is too high for this slate. He has hit over 5.5x value in four of his last six games. He is shooting the ball over 50 percent from the floor during that span too. His usage rate has averaged around 25 percent of late, and the DvP matchup is a slight boost. He also gets a pace bump against a Suns team that ranks third in the NBA for most possessions. My only fear here is a blowout as the Wizards are still playing to win, but the Suns have little to play for.
Seth Curry (DAL): $6,600 vs. LAL
I continue to keep playing Seth Curry. In fact, I prefer Seth over Steph Curry this season, and it has paid off tremendously. He has been a fantastic cash game option over his last 10 games – hitting at least 5x value. He has also hit tournament value in five of those 10 games. He has seen over 30 minutes in nine of his last 10 games too. When Curry sees at least 30 minutes, he has averaged just shy of 30 DraftKings points this season. I love him in cash for this reason. He has the upside in tournaments too, and gets a bump in pace. The DvP matchup is a big plus too.
Other options:
- Jordan Clarkson (LAL): $5,200 vs. DAL (GPP)
Small Forward
Harrison Barnes (DAL): $6,400 vs. LAL
Barnes has a great matchup tonight. The only fear is a Dallas blowout, as the Mavericks are currently favored by 9.5 points. Barnes has been cold lately, and he is only worth a look in cash games. His upside is limited with the addition of Nerlens Noel and Dirk Nowitzki playing well of late. The DvP matchup is in Barnes’ favor, and this is a pace-up game. Even when struggling, Barnes has seen a floor of 4.2x value. That is great for cash games. His upside is not there for tournaments, though, and even against the Lakers I would not roster him in GPPs.
Maurice Harkless (POR): $5,300 @ OKC
Harkless will be on many of my lineups tonight. He has hit 5x or more value in eight of his last 10 games. The two he did not hit he still managed 4.4x and 4.5x value. He is averaging 5.4x value against the Thunder in the three games these teams played this season. He has seen a big increase in minutes lately, and I will take a risk with him in both cash games and tournaments. If the slate was larger Harkless would only be a cash-game option for me, though.
Other options:
- Bojan Bogdanovic (WAS): $4,900 @ PHO (Both)
- Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL): $3,000 vs. LAL (Both)
Power Forward
Julius Randle (LAL): $6,100 @ DAL
Randle has been playing better lately, and the Lakers are basically just throwing their younger guys out on the floor. Randle is one of those guys who sees decent minutes. Over his last six games, Randle is averaging 29 minutes per game. Now, his play has not been consistent enough for me to consider in cash games. Although his floor is there, I think better options exist tonight. I like Randle more for tournaments because of his great upside. The matchup is not a good one and if the slate was bigger I would probably not play him at all. However, with such a small slate, Randle deserves some exposure.
T.J. Warren (PHO): $5,900 vs. WAS
Here is my cash-game play at power forward. Warren has hit cash-game value or more in 12 of his last 14 games. He is also consistently seeing over 28 minutes per game. The pace is a slight downgrade, but not enough to worry. The DvP matchup is a positive one and Warren should easily take advantage. Warren is shooting over 55 percent from the floor in eight of his last 10 games. When he takes over 10 shot attempts, Warren hits tournament value. Warren is worth a look in tournaments, but he is a lock for me in cash.
Other options:
- Al-Farouq Aminu (POR): $5,400 @ OKC
- Marquese Chriss (PHO): $4,700 vs. WAS
Center
Jusuf Nurkic (POR): $6,800 @OKC
This is not a good matchup for Nurkic as the Thunder actually have a good defense against big men. I would play Nurkic in tournaments before I touched him in cash games. His upside is huge since going to Portland, but his floor is low. Since going to Portland, Nurkic has hit 7.5x value or more in three of six games. He is averaging a 22 percent usage rate during those games too. As I build my rosters for tonight, Nurkic will likely see 50 percent or more exposure in my tournament lineups.
Alan Williams (PHO): $6,700 vs. WAS
I have been playing Williams every night since he has seen a big increase in minutes. His usage rate has been around 20 percent and he has seen a big increase in minutes in his last five games. As the Suns have nothing to play for, they have been giving their younger guys plenty of playing time. This is the case with Williams, who has taken advantage of that playing time. Now, this is the night I will fade him for tournaments, but he is going to be in my cash lineups. Why am I fading him for tournaments? Well, his salary has jumped $1,300 and he needs 40.2 DraftKings points to return tournament value. During his great run, he has only hit that number twice and once it was 40.3 DraftKings points. His value is not as great with the bump in salary and Marcin Gortat is not awful at defense, so the DvP matchup is not great. I think he falls in line for cash games, but his upside scares me off. I’d rather play Nurkic for $100 more in tournaments.
Other options:
- Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): $5,800 vs. LAL (Both)
- Enes Kanter (OKC): $5,700 vs. POR (Cash)
- Nerlens Noel (DAL): $5,600 vs. LAL (GPP)
That does it for tonight. Good luck and hopefully your NFL teams had a good “tampering” day in free agency!
Help yourself out by checking out our NBA Optimal Lineup for today’s slate
Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive. You may also read his work on RotoViz, House Money Fantasy and FLAFFL House or you can follow him on Twitter @ChiSportsnut25.
