NFL Combine Risers and Fallers (Fantasy Football)

The NFL Scouting Combine typically confirms what has already been seen on tape, but some players’ stock can fall quite a bit if they are underwhelming in Indianapolis or inflate if they post surprisingly good numbers. Here are a handful of guys who helped their draft capital and some others who are looking forward to a chance of redemption at their Pro Day.

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Risers

Zay Jones (WR – East Carolina)
In his time as a Pirate, Jones racked up an unprecedented 399 catches in four seasons, including a record-breaking 158 receptions in his senior campaign. The knock on Jones is that his catch total was primarily due to the system and that his lack of speed to create separation will hurt him in the NFL when he needs to win one-on-one matchups. Jones managed a 4.45 forty yard dash at the Combine, which at 201 pounds is great size adjusted speed. According to Player Profiler, Jones earned a 103.9 Height Adjusted Speed Score which is 78th percentile amongst NFL WRs.

At 6’2″ and 201 pounds, Jones is too small to be a split end and too big to be a slot, but I think he can make his name in the NFL as a flanker, as evidenced by his explosiveness and short burst abilities. Jones finished third amongst wide receivers in the broad jump with his jump of 11’1″ and third in the 20-yard shuttle with his 4.01-second finish. By Player Profiler metrics, Jones has an 85th percentile Burst Score and 90th percentile Agility Score, two strong indicators of a wide receiver’s ability to get open in space. Jones projects well to the WR2 role on a team with a clear-cut WR1.

Evan Engram (TE – Ole Miss)
The hybrid tight end out of the SEC had the best performance of the day on Saturday, impressing scouts and coaches with his blazing 4.42 forty yard dash, the fastest time for a tight end in the 2017 class. Engram is unanimously the best pass-catching tight end in the class, but he distanced himself even further from the pack when he outran all but five of the running backs and wide receivers who tested at the 2017 combine. Engram proceeded to catch every ball thrown his way in the on-field drills, all the while looking calm, cool and collected.

It’s hard for me to envision Engram being the first tight end drafted, but he certainly climbed on teams’ big boards. O.J.Howard is the most well-rounded and NFL-ready tight end, while David Njoku has the highest upside of the class with such raw talent at age 20. Both will likely be selected ahead of Engram, but his name will be called sooner than you think in Philadelphia. It may even be called on the first day.

Chris Godwin (WR – Penn State)
Godwin burst onto the scene when he put up video game stats against USC in the Rose Bowl, hauling in nine catches for 187 yards and two scores. His momentum must have carried into the offseason because he surprised scouts when he ran a 4.42 forty yard dash. Analysts projected him to run somewhere between a 4.5 and a 4.55, but Godwin exceeded expectations. He also logged 19 reps on the bench press, second most for a wide receiver. Godwin’s most impressive test of the day, however, was his 4.00 second 20-yard shuttle at 209 pounds, the best such time in his position.

Like Zay Jones, Godwin doesn’t have the size to project as an X receiver, but he showed his skill set and physical tools will get the job done as a split end or slot receiver in the league. Look for a team with an established big body wide receiver like Cincinnati, Tampa Bay or Jacksonville to select Godwin and bolster their passing game.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – Stanford)
The son of former Denver Broncos wideout Ed McCaffrey, Christian McCaffrey is a much more superior athlete than his dad, but with similar ball skills. McCaffrey had a monster day at the NFL Scouting Combine, finishing in the upper echelon of the running back group in three of the five performance tests. His versatility at the NFL level is what makes him so appealing in the draft and he solidified this with a 4.48 forty yard dash, a 37.5″ vertical jump and a lightning quick 11.03 sixty yard shuttle.

McCaffrey tested very well, but he really stole the show with his route-running ability in the pass catching drills. While he played primarily running back at Stanford, it’s unknown whether McCaffrey will be in the backfield or if he will get time as a wide receiver. It’s quite possible that he does both, and does them well. We can only hope the NFL team who selects him will use McCaffrey to create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. A smart offensive coordinator will vary formations and personnel like crazy and use McCaffrey in the backfield and the slot to get him touches.

Fallers

D’Onta Foreman (RB – Texas)
Any player who fails to do events at the combine is hurting their draft stock, to be rather frank. The bruising, between-the-tackles runner out of Texas not only sat out of events due to an injury, but he performed rather poorly in the one event he did complete: the bench press. Foreman’s 18 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press places him at the 33rd percentile for NFL running backs and 2017 prospects according to Player Profiler.

Foreman’s style of play is similar to that of LeGarrette Blount in that he wants to run inside and earn his yardage with power and toughness. Foreman became a popular name during the 2016-17 college football season when he ran for over 2,000 yards and accounted for 15 touchdowns, but scouts have since began picking apart his game tape. His power at the point of contact leaves something to be desired. Play after play, he makes contact with a defender and falls backward or stalemates with the tackler. A disappointing showing in the bench press will only add fuel to the flame as scouts torch Foreman’s power running reputation.

Joe Mixon (RB – Oklahoma)
While D’Onta Foreman got injured and missed most of his events at the Combine, Mixon didn’t compete in a single event. That’s because Mixon didn’t receive an invite from the league, despite Round 1 talent, due to his off-field character issues. Watching Mixon on tape, you can see that he is a tremendous athlete capable of seamlessly transitioning to the NFL and getting opportunities early on in his career. It wasn’t Mixon’s lack of opportunity to perform in the physical tests that hurt his stock. The Combine could have been a chance for Mixon to address his physical assault of a woman during his time at Oklahoma. He would have had all eyes on him as he attempted to reconcile with the victim, apologize for his actions and do his best to put the matter at rest. While the NFL isn’t the moral compass of the world (more often it shows us exactly how *not* to handle a situation), many teams will avoid Mixon like the plague for his history of violence. NFL organizations will remain unwilling to invest in Mixon for as long as the assault case lingers.

Cooper Kupp (WR – Eastern Washington)
There are few players in the 2017 draft class who were as productive as Kupp in their college careers. He accounted for 1,400+ yards and 16+ touchdowns in each of his four seasons with Eastern Washington, racking up an astounding 6,464 yards and 73 touchdowns. As is the case with most NFL prospects from small schools, scouts and coaches alike wonder if the player dominated because of talent or lack of quality opposition.

All things considered, Kupp actually had a pretty good showing at the Combine. He ran routes and caught the ball well. He moved smoothly on his way to a top-5 time in the 20-yard shuttle. Kupp has shown thus far to be a potentially great receiver. However, he certainly did not do himself justice Saturday when he ran a very slow 4.62 forty yard dash, placing him in the 22nd percentile of all NFL wide receivers and 2017 wide receiver prospects. NFL organizations will wonder where Kupp will fit in their system. In college, he worked primarily out of the slot, but with such a lack of speed, that seems unlikely. On the other end, he’s not quite big enough to be a split end. Kupp will remain an enigma until we see him in action this August.