The perception that wide receivers have the longest average playing career, in part due to the assumption that they do not receive the same number of bone-crushing hits as running backs and quarterbacks, is a primary reason why wideouts are valued higher in dynasty formats than in redraft rankings.
After all, if you are planning on investing a significant amount of draft capital in a player, you want to target those that will have long productive careers so you can reap the benefits for many seasons to come. The more productive seasons a player can give you improves the rate of return over the life of your investment, which is why our FantasyPros ECR rankings have nine wide receivers rated in the top 12 in dynasty compared to only five in redraft rankings.
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Although wide receivers hold a premium in dynasty startup drafts, it is important for owners not to lose sight of the significant advantage that David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott present to those willing to pay a premium for a top-tier running back. These three young studs are in a tier above all other running backs and can be difference makers for a team, despite the shared belief they will not have as long of a shelf life as their receiving mates.
Of the three top tier running backs, Ezekiel Elliott appears to be the safest pick with the highest floor because the Cowboys have a top-5 offensive line and a young quarterback that will likely play alongside Elliott for many years. Elliott may not have the highest ceiling compared to Bell and Johnson, but he does have fewer question marks, assuming he can refrain from off-field incidents like removing a woman’s bikini top at a St. Patricks day parade.
Bell and Johnson are two 25-year-old running backs entering the prime of their respective careers after near record-setting performances in 2016. Bell is a talented runner with receiving stats rivaling the best wide receivers in the game, while Johnson is an equally talented player who is a touchdown machine and the focal point of his offense.
The focus of this article is to examine the pros and cons of each player, with the goal of discerning who is the better pick for owners participating in dynasty startup drafts this season.
Career Length & Long Term Health
Predicting the duration of a career for any NFL player, regardless of position, is an exercise in futility due to the fact that anticipating injury or long-term production is nearly impossible. Dynasty owners tend to go by the common belief that running backs have much shorter careers than wide receivers and quarterbacks, which is why some owners in dynasty formats do not like to spend a sizable percentage of their budget on RBs.
But perhaps this logic is flawed, as a recent study by the Wall Street Journal using data from Pro Football Reference showed that from 2008 to 2014, the average NFL career for all positions shortened from 4.99 to just 2.66 years. According to an article on SI.com using the WSJ data, offensive linemen have the longest careers at just under four years, while wide receivers, not running backs, have the shortest average career of two years and two months.
You could argue that these numbers encompass the entire pool of players and not just the top-tier wide receivers. But there is no doubting the fact that across the board players in the NFL are playing for fewer years than ever before, and perhaps we are putting too much of an emphasis on a wide receiver’s perceived career length.
If you buy into the narrative that career touches are a viable way to gauge how long a player may play, Johnson has a sizable advantage with only 534 touches at age 25 versus Bell’s 1,135. Bell has significantly more mileage on his legs than Johnson, primarily because Bell started his NFL career at age 21 compared to age 24 for Johnson, and the Steelers used Bell heavily as a bell-cow running back from day one.
Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk is an excellent comparison to Johnson and Bell, as Faulk is arguably the best receiving running back in NFL history, in addition to being a formidable ball carrier.
Like Bell, Faulk began his career immediately as the bell-cow at age 21 for the Colts. He would go on to receive over 300 touches in nine of his first 10 seasons, including 356 in 2001 when he became only the second player in NFL history to post 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards in a season. But the heavy workload appeared to take its toll on Faulk, with the former San Diego State star failing to play a full 16-game schedule in the final six seasons of his 12-year career.
If Bell continues to be a high-volume player that has made him a fantasy star over the past four seasons, a regression similar to Faulk’s age-28 season is possible. I am not a fan of the term injury-prone, as some players are simply unlucky, but there are certainly red flags with Bell in the fact that he left two of his four seasons early with injuries, including an ACL tear in 2015 that limited him to only six games.
Johnson’s knee injury in the final game of the 2016 season left fantasy owners holding their collective breaths, but it appears Johnson should be fine for the start of 2017. With only 534 touches through his 25-year-old season, Johnson’s long-term outlook has him playing at a high level well into his 30-year-old season.
But owners looking to discern between these two stars should not place too much value in usage and perceived injury proneness, as more than a few budding stars like Bo Jackson had their careers derailed by injury when it appeared as though they were destined for greatness.
Quarterback Uncertainty
When contemplating the selection of a wide receiver in a dynasty league startup draft, the long-term prognosis of that player’s franchise quarterback is a vital attribute that must be considered.
Although not as critical for running backs, the long-term viability of a QB is important, especially for tailbacks like Bell and Johnson who thrive on receiving passes out of the backfield. It is even more important for a player like Bell who is a primary beneficiary of the potent offense when Ben Roethlisberger is under center as opposed to a backup like Landry Jones.
After hinting at retirement this offseason, all skill position players on the Steelers will take a bit of a hit when in fact Big Ben does hang up his cleats. It is possible that Jones or another replacement QB could continue to run the offense like Roethlisberger, but with only seven passing touchdowns and a 60% completion rate in 16 careers games, that probability is not encouraging.
Johnson has an equally uncertain long-term outlook for his offense and quarterback, with Carson Palmer likely retiring after this season and receiving great Larry Fitzgerald likely following Palmer out the door.
But unlike Bell, who has flourished in a high-octane offense, Johnson posted 2,118 total yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns as the only elite offensive weapon in Arizona. Perhaps most impressive, he achieved that feat while Carson Palmer’s play fell off significantly from 2015 to 2016 (ProFootball Focus’ No. 1 QB in 2015 & No. 14 in 2016).
Contract Status and Off-field Issues
Beyond aging quarterbacks and uncertainty regarding future offensive schemes, the proverbial elephant in the room is Bell’s off-field transgressions, with one more violation of the leagues’ substance abuse policy likely resulting in a year-long suspension.
Also, a second consecutive franchise tag and the apparent reluctance of the Steelers organization to sign Bell to a long-term deal should be unsettling for dynasty owners, as his value may take a big hit should he leave the potent Pittsburgh system for a less attractive offense.
In two full seasons with the Cardinals, Johnson has been a model player for the organization, while receiving praise and accolades for his hard work ethic and focus. A third-round selection in the 2015 NFL Draft, Johnson is playing in the third year of a four-year rookie contract, with a possible long-term extension coming after the 2017 season. It possible that the Cardinals may let him test the free agent market after 2018, but all signs point to them locking up Johnson well before then.
A squeaky-clean record and the Cardinals’ desire to keep him for the long term gives David Johnson an edge over Bell when considering contract status and off-field issues.
Advantage Johnson
At first glance, a comparison of David Johnson to Le’Veon Bell is akin to trying to decide between a Porsche and a Ferrari, with both options giving the buyer a finely tuned performance machine.
Both players are elite running backs entering the prime years of their careers. Both players excel at catching the ball in addition to elite rushing abilities, and both players are a focal point of their respective offense.
But a closer look at the underlying variables of contract status and off-field issues, uncertainty at the quarterback position, and questions surrounding usage and long-term heath, reveals that David Johnson is the less risky pick for dynasty owners in startup drafts this season.
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Andrew Swanson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @andyswansonESPN.