The Primer: Week 18 Edition (2026 Fantasy Football)

We have arrived at the end of the road. Week 18. It’s the end of the fantasy football season, and this is my final weekly primer. At this point of the season, I always feel conflicted. After four and a half months of grinding football, I’m worn out, but I’m also sad. I love football and fantasy football with all of my heart and don’t want to see the season end.

I consider it a blessing and a wondrous privilege to write this article weekly. I have never and will never take that lightly. I hope that through 18 weeks, I have helped you along the way. That’s why I grind every edge of data, matchups, etc., weekly. To help you win.

This week’s primer will be a little different. Week 18 is part redraft fantasy football and part preseason football. Playing time can be a crapshoot to predict. Some teams will be running out their starters and going for wins, while others will play their guys for half of the game or less. I’ll continue to monitor news and update my playing time and matchup projections as best I can. There’s a ton of volatility in Week 18. I also condensed this week’s format into a TLDR version. I hope it provides actionable and quick intel for all of your lineup decisions this week. The must-start section has been expanded this week. If you have a player with a good matchup and he’s expected to play the entire game, I’m likely bumping him into must-start territory because with so many teams sitting players, the volatility increases, and the number of other options available on your bench or the waiver wire decreases.

Good luck to everyone this week. I hope it has been a wonderful fantasy football season. Don’t worry. I’m not hibernating until Week 1 of the 2026 season. Now, the focus turns to the NFL Draft and prospect szn.

Good luck this week. Welcome to the Week 18 Primer. Enjoy.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

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Fantasy Football Primer

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -2.5, O/U 43.5
• Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The winner of this game will win the NFC South and make the playoffs. Both of these teams will be highly motivated and play their starters as usual.

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Tetairoa McMillan
• Bucky Irving
• Mike Evans

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Bryce Young (QB)

• QB29 in fantasy points per game
• Two QB1 performances in weekly scoring in his last six games (QB2, QB4
• QB15 for the week in his last game against Tampa Bay
• Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks:
  • 35th in yards per attempt
  • 32nd in passing yards per game
  • 15th in hero throw rate
• Since Week 13, the Tampa Bay pass defense:
  • Fifth-highest success rate per dropback
  • 11th in passing yards per game allowed
  • 12th in yards per attempt
  • Sixth-highest CPOE
• Week 18 final thought: Young is a volatile QB2 that could easily be a QB1 this week. A dice roll.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

• Last week was his first QB1 weekly finish (QB12) since Week 11
• QB21 for the week in his last meeting with Carolina
• Since Week 12 (among 29 qualifying quarterbacks)
  • 24th in passing yards per game
  • 25th in yards per attempt
  • 23rd in catchable target rate
  • 25th in fantasy points per dropback
• Since Week 13, the Carolina pass defense:
  • 17th in yards per attempt
  • Third-highest CPOE allowed
  • Sixth in success rate per dropback
  • Lowest pressure rate in the NFL
• Week 18 final thought: Mayfield is a QB2 with QB1 upside.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

• Since Week 13:
  • RB33 in fantasy points per game
  • 16.3 touches and 59.8 total yards per game
• Overall, among 48 qualifying backs:
  • 21st in explosive run rate
  • 16th in missed tackle rate
  • Eighth-best in yards after contact per attempt
• Since Week 13, the Tampa Bay run defense:
  • 13th-highest explosive run rate
  • Fourth-most yards before contact per attempt
  • 13th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Dowdle 51.5% zone)
• Week 18 final thought: Dowdle is an RB3 with RB2 upside.

Chris Godwin (WR)

• Since Week 13:
  • WR24 in fantasy points per game
  • 18.5% target share
  • 58.2 receiving yards per game (2.01 YPRR)
  • 22.9% first-read share
  • Five RZ targets and one deep target
• Since Week 13, Carolina vs. slot receivers:
  • 14th-fewest PPR points per target allowed
  • 11th-lowest passer rating when targeted
• Week 18 final thought: Godwin is a WR2/3 that could easily post a strong stat line this week if Mayfield can bounce back.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

• Since Week 16:
  • 50% and 46% route shares
  • 10% target share
  • 12.5% first-read share
  • Zero RZ targets
• Week 18 final thought: Sit Egbuka this week. He has been fazed out of the offense over the last two games. He’s a drop in redraft (non-keeper) leagues.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SEA -1.5, O/U 48.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The winner of this game will take the NFC West and the No. 1 seed. Both of these teams will go all out for the win.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Brock Purdy
• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

*George Kittle looks good with his movement in every practice video I could find to open the week. He has stated that he absolutely plans to play this week.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

• Since Week 11:
  • Three QB1 weekly finishes (QB11, QB4, QB8)
  • Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks:
    • 16th in yards per attempt
    • 14th in passing yards per game
    • 22nd in catchable target rate
    • 28th in fantasy points per dropback
• Since Week 13, the 49ers’ pass defense:
  • 13th-most passing yards per game allowed
  • 16th in passing touchdowns (tied)
  • Tenth-highest passer rating
  • Third-lowest pressure rate generated
• Week 18 final thought: Darnold is a QB2 that could easily be a QB1 this week against a struggling San Francisco pass defense.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

• Since Week 15:
  • 13.7 touches and 69 total yards per game
  • 54.3% snap rate
  • 38.2% route share (7.2% target share)
  • 10 RZ rushing attempts
• Since Week 13, the San Francisco run defense:
  • Ninth-highest explosive run rate
  • Highest missed tackle rate
  • Fifth-most yards before contact per attempt allowed
• Week 18 final thought: Zach Charbonnet has taken over as the lead back and red zone option for Seattle. He’s a strong RB2.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

• Since Week 15:
  • 13.7 touches and 80 total yards per game
  • 44.1% snap rate
  • 26.4% route share (6.2% target share)
  • One RZ rushing attempt
• Since Week 13, the San Francisco run defense:
  • Ninth-highest explosive run rate
  • Highest missed tackle rate
  • Fifth-most yards before contact per attempt allowed
• Week 18 final thought: Seattle has turned Walker back into a back that only sees work in between the 20s. His touchdown equity is non-existent in this offense. Despite the nice matchup, he’s only a flex play this week.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

• Since Week 11: WR18 in fantasy points per game
• Since Week 14, Seattle: Eighth-highest two high rate (57.4%)
  • Since Week 11, against two high, Jennings:
    • 19.1% target share
    • 2.31 YPRR
    • 33.3% first-read share
• Since Week 13, Seattle vs. perimeter wide receivers:
  • Sixth-fewest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game allowed
• Week 18 final thought: Jennings should compete with George Kittle for the team lead in targets this week. It’s a tough matchup, but Jennings is a solid WR2/3.

AJ Barner (TE)

• TE21 in fantasy points per game
• Six weekly finishes this season as a TE1
• 13.6% target share
• 31.6 receiving yards per game (1.56 YPRR)
• 13 RZ targets and three deep targets this season
• Since Week 11, San Francisco vs. tight ends:
  • 15th in yards per target allowed
  • Fourth-most fantasy points per game allowed to the position
• Week 18 final thought: Barner is a nice streaming option at tight end this week. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was a TE1 this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

• Since Week 14, Seattle: Eighth-highest two high rate (57.4%)
  • Since Week 11, against two high, Pearsall:
    • 13.2% target share
    • 1.22 YPRR
    • 12.5% first-read share
• Since Week 13, Seattle vs. perimeter wide receivers:
  • Sixth-fewest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game allowed
• Week 18 final thought: Pearsall has been the 49ers’ go-to versus single high. He’s a sit this week. I don’t project for him to have a big game to close the regular season.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -12.5, O/U 47.5
• Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Titans are playing for pride this week. That’s it. Jacksonville can lock up the AFC South with a win. I expect both teams to go all out this week.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trevor Lawrence
• Travis Etienne Jr.
• Tony Pollard
• Jakobi Meyers
• Brenton Strange

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Parker Washington (WR)

• Over the last two weeks:
  • WR3, WR9 in weekly scoring
  • 27.4% target share and 29.8% first-read share
  • 130 receiving yards per game (3.82 YPRR)
  • Four RZ targets and seven deep targets
• Since Week 13, Tennessee vs. slot receivers:
  • Third-most PPR points per target allowed to the position
  • Second-highest passer rating when targeted
• Week 18 final thought: Washington is an amazing flex play this week with WR1/2 upside and a WR3 floor. He is set up to eat again this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

• Since Week 13:
  • Two top-24 weekly finishes (WR15, WR23)
  • 17.8 aDOT
  • 16% target share and 22.2% first-read share
  • 1.58 YPRR
  • 10 deep targets and three red zone targets
• Since Week 13, Tennessee vs. perimeter wide receivers:
  • Third-most PPR points per target allowed to the position
  • Seventh-most receiving yards per game
• Week 18 final thought: Thomas is a volatile WR3 with big-time upside this week. He could easily produce as a WR1/2 if he hooks up with Trevor Lawrence on a deep target or two this week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

*If you’ve made it this far and you’re playing for a fantasy championship, you’ve likely done it without the help of the Tennessee passing attack. I can’t trust any part of Tennessee’s passing attack for Week 18. Tony Pollard is the only startable Titan this week. If you have him, start him with confidence.*

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -10.5, O/U 39
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Week 18 Motivation: The Colts have been eliminated from playoff contention. The playing time for each of their starters is up in the air. The Texans can win the AFC South with a win and a loss by Jacksonville. Houston will be motivated to win this game. I expect Houston’s starters to play the entire game.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Nico Collins
• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

• QB20 in fantasy points per game
• Only two QB1 weekly scoring outings in this last seven games (QB11, QB8)
• Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks:
  • 17th in yards per attempt
  • 34th in highly accurate throw rate
  • 26th in hero throw rate
  • 24th in fantasy points per dropback
• Since Week 13, the Colts’ pass defense:
  • Second-most passing yards per game
  • Seventh-most yards per attempt and CPOE
• Week 18 final thought: Stroud is a QB2 that could post QB1 numbers this week.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

• • Since Week 3:
    • TE11 in fantasy points per game
    • 18.2% target share & 18.4% first-read share (both second on the team)
    • 46.2 receiving yards per game (1.56 YPRR)
    • Nine RZ targets and five deep targets
  • Since Week 11, Indy vs. tight ends:
    • 11th-most yards per target allowed
    • 14th-most fantasy points per game allowed

• Week 18 final thought: Schultz is a TE1 again this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Woody Marks (RB)

• • Last week:
    • 66.1% snap rate & 50% route share (7.1% target share)
    • 20 touches and 75 total yards
    • Jawhar Jordan had only 11 snaps (eight rushing attempts)
  • Since Week 13, the Colts’ run defense
    • Eighth-lowest explosive run rate allowed
    • Ninth-fewest rushing yards per game allowed
    • Sixth-lowest rushing success rate permitted

• Week 18 final thought: Marks is an RB3 with RB2-level workload and upside if he can get into the endzone.

Jayden Higgins (WR)

• • Over the last two weeks:
    • 54.7% route share
    • 11.1% target share
    • 52.5 receiving yards per game (3.00 YPRR)
    • 13.6% first-read share (Zero RZ targets & two deep targets)
  • Since Week 13, the Colts’ pass defense vs. perimeter wide receivers:
    • 13th-most PPR points per target allowed
    • Fourth-most receiving yards per game allowed

• Week 18 final thought: Higgins is a risky flex play because of his playing time, but he has WR2 upside if Stroud looks his way with this matchup.

Alec Pierce (WR)

• • Since Week 15:
    • 11.7% target share
    • 22.7 aDOT with five of his 11 targets via deep passing
  • Since Week 11, the Texans vs. perimeter wide receivers:
    • Tenth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed
    • 13th-fewest receiving yards per game permitted
    • 11th-most deep passing yards per game and 13th-highest deep completion rate allowed

• Week 18 final thought: Pierce is a deep league flex only. He won’t see a ton of volume this week, but if he can connect on a deep target (or two) he could pay off this week for fantasy.

Tyler Warren (TE)

• • Since Week 15:
    • Weekly scoring finishes – TE30, TE21, TE16
    • 21.3% target share and 26.4% first-read share (both lead the team)
    • 30.7 receiving yards per game (1.14 YPRR)
    • One RZ target and zero deep targets
  • Since Week 11, Houston vs. tight ends:
    • 16th in yards per target allowed
    • Eighth-most fantasy points per game allowed

• Week 18 final thought: Warren is a borderline TE1 this week. He could easily disappoint and be a basement-level TE2 if Riley Leonard capsizes at quarterback in Week 18.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

• Since Week 15:
  • Weekly scoring rankings: WR64, WR56, WR80
  • 13.8% target share and 15.3% first-read share
  • 24.7 receiving yards per game (0.85 YPRR)
  • One RZ target and two deep targets
• Since Week 11, the Texans vs. perimeter wide receivers:
  • Tenth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed
  • 13th-fewest receiving yards per game permitted
• Week 18 final thought: Pittman is a flex play that is best left on the bench this week.

Josh Downs (WR)

• • Since Week 15:
    • 20.2% target share (79.8% route share)
    • 37.3 receiving yards per game (1.42 YPRR)
    • 23.6% first-read share (second on the team)
    • Two RZ targets and three deep targets
  • Since Week 13, the Texans vs. slot receivers:
    • 12th-fewest fantasy points per game allowed
    • Seventh-lowest passer rating when targeted allowed

• Week 18 final thought: Josh Downs is a sit this week. His route share is up in the air with the team moving to Riley Leonard starting this week. Downs had seen a big bump in his playing time with Philip Rivers under center. The matchup is terrible, and Downs isn’t worth the risk this week.

CAR vs. TB | SEA vs. SF | TEN vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | CLE vs. CIN | NO vs. ATL | GB vs. MIN | DAL vs. NYG | DET vs. CHI | NYJ vs. BUF | LAC vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | ARI vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI | KC vs. LV | BAL vs. PIT