Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.
Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters. As I have begun to exhaust all the new interesting rookies, I will be revisiting some of the more noteworthy performers over the course of the season.
All stats are generally current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as noted in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant. While I normally populate two categories, one for rookies performing well and one for those struggling, this week I focus on only players who are succeeding. I feel that analysis of these players is more likely to be useful for fantasy owners who may be considering picking them up. Plus, I’m running out of ideas, clever or otherwise, for good/bad category names.
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Bradley Zimmer (OF – CLE)
Zimmer entered this season considered by most to be a top-100 prospect, if not exactly a consensus. His above average power for a capable center fielder drove most of that prospect status, while his contact ability remained the biggest question mark. From a fantasy standpoint, his consecutive near 40-steal seasons in the minors were also intriguing. Injuries to Abraham Almonte, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Brandon Guyer forced an earlier promotion than anticipated for Zimmer, who has so far impressed with a .314/.400/.600 slash line, two homers and three steals in 13 games. His 30% K% has done little to douse concerns over his strikeout potential, but he has also posted a 12.5% BB%. These rates continue a high-walk, high-strikeout trend that really emerged across Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. His batted ball numbers have also been solid so far, with a 95.1 mph average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls as well as a 10% Barrels per batted-ball rate, earning him a .279 expected batting average (xBA) and .390 expected wOBA (xwOBA). It also appears that Terry Francona is limiting Zimmer’s exposure to left-handed pitching. Zimmer has not started two games against left-handed starters in the last week. So while Zimmer is a big name prospect, I expect contact problems and a quasi-platoon role to limit his fantasy utility in 2017, but he certainly seems like a high-upside play in the short term.
Jorge Bonifacio (OF – KC)
Bonifacio was not considered to be at the top-end of the Royals’ minor league system entering 2017, nor was he a Baseball America top-100 prospect. While he failed to hit for much power in the low minors, back-to-back seasons of 17 and 19 homers in Double-A and Triple-A hinted at a developing approach. Even after a strong spring, Bonifacio did not make the big league club but was called up in mid-April with Jorge Soler still on the DL. Despite Soler’s return, Bonifacio has continued to see regular playing time and has been strong at the plate with a .274 AVG, .837 OPS and seven homers. Walk and strikeout rates of 7.8% and 25.9% are not out of line with his minor league track record, and his .236 ISO is a fair bit higher than the .184 mark he posted in 2016. At .283 and .374, Bonifacio’s xBA and xwOBA actually suggest his results have slightly underperformed his batted-ball skills. Stepping back to more traditional metrics, it’s safe to assume that his 28.0% HR/FB rate will not continue, as his highest single-season minor league mark was 11.5%. The Steamer projection system expects a .245 AVG and .697 OPS from Bonifacio moving forward. While his batted-ball outcomes to date suggest he might outperform his projections by a bit, an outfielder with a low-.700s OPS and no reliable speed is barely usable in any fantasy format. The Royals do not have a lot of high-end OF options in the organization, but if Soler starts to hit, and Brandon Moss keeps plodding along at DH, Bonifacio may find himself playing less frequently, too.
Allen Cordoba (SS/OF – SD)
After a year hitting .362/.427/.495 with 22 steals and more walks than strikeouts in 50 games as a 20-year-old in the Cardinals’ system, Cordoba was acquired by the Padres in the Rule 5 draft. While his slash line looks appealing, he hit zero home runs in 2016 and had only four career minor league homers in 206 games. In the thin Padres organization, Cordoba has found playing time at shortstop and in the outfield at the major league level and is in line for more regular playing time in the short-term with Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski, and Manuel Margot all on the DL. In 98 MLB plate appearances this year, Cordoba is hitting .292 with three homers and one steal. His 20.6% K% is significantly higher than his 8.6% from the minors last year but shows that he has yet to be greatly overmatched. Any relatively unknown player hitting near .300 is a safe bet to regress, and Cordoba’s .261 xBA suggests that bet is likely to pay off in this case too. That he has any homers may be the real surprise, as his 84.7 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and liners is fourth worst among players with more than 30 batted-balls, more than 2.5 standard deviations worse that the average of 92.3 mph. Tempting though it may be to pick up a shortstop who is hitting near .300 and has recently been batting in the leadoff spot, Cordoba cannot be counted on for more than a .270 average with no power and a handful of steals. Factor in uncertain playing time when Margot returns and Cordoba is also best left on the wire.
James Pazos (RP – SEA)
What Rookie Report would be complete without discussion of a few young, high-strikeout middle relievers? First up is James Pazos who, despite select reports of impending save opportunities during Edwin Diaz‘s struggles, seems firmly behind Diaz and Nick Vincent, with Tony Zych also in the mix. For his part, the southpaw Pazos has posted a 2.01 ERA with 11.28 K/9 in 22.1 innings with a healthy 12.4% SwStk%. His 3.22 BB/9 is less than stellar, but his 62.5% GB% is quite nice. His fastball/slider combo has proven effective against both lefties and righties thus far, which he will need to maintain to work his way into a higher-leverage setup role. Those in holds leagues who value strikeouts and good ratios would do well to keep an eye on Pazos.
James Hoyt (RP – HOU)
Our next middle reliever is righty James Hoyt, who is the latest 30-year-old breakout reliever, one who happens to be a 30-year-old rookie. Hoyt’s eye-popping 16.2 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 are supported by a 16.5% SwStk%. He has also allowed very soft contact, in the 10th percentile of lowest xwOBA allowed. His 2.03 ERA and 1.39 xFIP should give fantasy owners confidence to add Hoyt in leagues where holds have value. Manager A.J. Hinch has alluded to trusting Hoyt with higher leverage middle relief innings, which is a good sign that Hoyt could start to work his way into the back end of the Astros’ stacked bullpen.
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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.
