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Fantasy Football Sleeper: Josh Doctson

Fantasy Football Sleeper: Josh Doctson

Josh Doctson played a total of 31 snaps in his rookie year last season, due to an unfortunate Achilles injury. That should make it incredibly difficult to evaluate his potential as a fantasy asset in 2017. It’s the primary reason for his current Consensus ADP of 155th overall (WR57), as fantasy owners are entirely unsure of his role in the Washington Redskins offense. And yet, here we are, presenting Josh Doctson as a high-upside sleeper pick. How can this be?

As it happens, those 31 snaps actually have quite the story to tell.

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First, Doctson was targeted on 19.4% of those routes. It’s a small sample size, but it compares very favorably with the 2016 numbers for Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson (both 14.1%), Jamison Crowder (12.7%), and even Jordan Reed (15.7%). When Doctson was on the field, QB Kirk Cousins was looking his way. But it’s a very specific set of targets that tells us the most about the 24-year-old’s potential.

In Week 2 of the 2016 season, the Redskins drove into the red zone four times. On three of those four trips, Cousins targeted Doctson in the end zone – twice on first down and once on second down. While none of the throws succeeded, they confirmed what scouts had said about Doctson coming into the draft – he’s a force to be reckoned with in the red zone. And Washington knows it.

The Redskins selected Doctson 22nd overall in the 2016 draft, making him the second receiver off the board (after Corey Coleman). He earned his way into the first round on the back of 34 touchdowns and 3,177 yards in college, including a school-record 29 TDs for TCU in only three years. At 6’2″/206, Doctson has prototypical WR1 size, but those aren’t even the measurables that truly stand out. At the 2016 NFL combine, Doctson showed off elite athleticism with a 41″ vertical jump and a 10’11” broad jump, good for second and third in his class, respectively. PlayerProfiler.com calculates Doctson in the 81st percentile in Agility Score, 96th percentile in Catch Radius, and 97th percentile in Burst Score. While his 40-yard dash time of 4.50 seconds didn’t shatter any records, it’s actually quicker than those of similarly-built WRs like DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas.

If the numbers aren’t enough to prove Doctson’s potential prowess in the end zone, the tape certainly is. There are dozens of highlights of Doctson winning battles or simply out-jumping defenders throughout his college career. Consider this high-flying one-handed grab versus Minnesota.

Scouts were clearly impressed by the film as well, lauding Doctson’s ability to play physically against strong corners, “climb the ladder,” adjust his body in mid-air, snare jump balls with strong hands, and still beat defenders after the catch. To my eyes, he plays very much like a Dez Bryant Lite (literally … scouts pinpointed a lack of functional mass as one of Doctson’s only weaknesses). And we know what Dez can do in the end zone.

The Redskins’ offense should be potent in 2017, and Kirk Cousins excels at the deep ball, leading the NFL last year in passing on attempts 20-plus yards down the field (per Pro Football Focus). All this bodes well for Doctson. While newly-signed Terrelle Pryor is bigger (6’4″/228) and faster, he is a converted quarterback whose routes will likely be less polished. Pryor is a better fit for the DeSean Jackson go-route role, beating defenders with pure speed down the sideline. Jamison Crowder, on the other hand, is simply too small (5’9″/177) to dominate consistently on the outside. He ran 72.6% of his routes – and ranked ninth in the NFL in yards – when lining up in the slot last year, and figures to excel in that position again.

Even if Doctson doesn’t win the WR2 role in Washington outright by the start of the season, the Redskins ran three-receiver sets 73.5% of the time in 2016, sixth-most frequent in the league. They also ranked seventh in pass attempts (607) and second in passing yards (4,758). With a still-cloudy backfield situation and the promotion of quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh to offensive coordinator, we can expect an equal emphasis on the air game in 2017.

In this offense, even as the third or fourth target, Doctson has easy WR3 potential. With a draft price of WR57, potentially available with the last pick of drafts, that’s a steal.

But it’s his upside that really makes Doctson’s deep-sleeper potential pop.

With an injury-prone Jordan Reed, truly unproven Terrelle Pryor, and trustworthy-but-limited Jamison Crowder on the roster, there is a possibility that Doctson could rise to the No. 1 receiving role on the Redskins. With Cousins playing to finally earn the paycheck he deserves, and Doctson burning to prove himself as an NFL talent, the fantasy ceiling in such a scenario is sky-high. Going in the range of guys like Tyler Lockett and Ted Ginn Jr., Doctson may have more upside than any other sleeper at the position.


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Matt Okada is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @FantasySensei.

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