In an odd turn of events, each of the three wide receivers drafted in the first round of this year’s NFL draft are injured. Corey Davis played a full game before aggravating a hamstring issue, John Ross played five snaps before being benched for fumbling and subsequently for a knee injury, and Mike Williams, who injured his back and will be making his debut in the near future.
But the first-rounders aren’t the only wide receivers capable of making a splash in the NFL. Multiple other wide receivers drafted later than Davis, Ross and Williams are seeing significant playing time despite the lower draft capital spent on them.
Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay (whom I outlined in the Week 1 Rookie Report ) are both already important players on their respective teams and were drafted in round three of the NFL Draft.
The three receivers below were each drafted outside of the first round and are interesting from a fantasy standpoint. They each embody some of the specific struggles that rookies face when transitioning from the college level to the pros, but are all close to tangible fantasy production. They may not have produced in Week 5, but they did show signs last weekend that there could be good things to come for them.
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Good JuJu
The Pittsburgh Steelers selected JuJu Smith-Schuster with the 62nd overall pick of the 2017 draft (or towards the back of the second round). As the youngest rookie in this year’s draft class and on an already-crowded Steelers depth chart, it was no sure thing that JuJu would produce in his rookie year.
Instead, Smith-Schuster began producing almost immediately. Despite starting the season behind Eli Rogers on the depth chart, Smith-Schuster eclipsed the sophomore so completely by Week 4 that the Steelers declared Rogers inactive prior to their game against the Ravens.
It doesn’t stop there either; JuJu has actually played more snaps in each of the last three games than Martavis Bryant, and is out-producing him too. Seeing five fewer targets in that span of time, Smith-Schuster has just one fewer reception than Bryant and 45 more receiving yards.
Shockingly, JuJu has actually been more efficient than Antonio Brown this season per Josh Hermsmeyer’s RACR metric, which “can also be thought of as the number of receiving yards a receiver creates per every air yards thrown at them.” When you consider that he has been more efficient than the best receiver in the league this season, it’s no surprise that JuJu has been vaulting up the Steelers’ depth chart.
There’s also the small matter of JuJu’s red zone target share. His seven red zone targets are tied with Antonio Brown‘s for the most among all pass-catchers on the Steelers, and his two red zone touchdowns lead the team. His dominant presence in such an important part of the field for a strong offense is very valuable for fantasy football.
We often have to look at efficiency metrics for rookies because more often than not, rookies do not receive the same opportunities as the established veterans on their teams. Efficiency shows promise for a rookie’s future production. In Smith-Schuster’s case, his efficiency was so undeniable that he has already cemented himself as an important part of the Steeler’s offense and thus as a viable option in deep fantasy leagues.
Plan Z(ay)
Whether they really want to or not, the Buffalo Bills must now instill Zay Jones as their de facto number one receiver. Jones was the fourth receiver taken in this year’s draft and the first selected in the second round, but thus far has been the polar opposite of JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Where JuJu has produced at a highly efficient level, Jones has been one of the least efficient receivers in the league. Through five weeks Jones has seen 23 targets, but has only caught five of those passes for 66 yards. Yikes.
Jones’ inefficiency has been one of the big contributors to the Bill’s lack of offensive success; per SharpFootballStats.com, the Bills have the league’s fifth-worst success rate in pass plays. The only teams with a lower rate of successful plays through their passing games are the Colts, the Browns, the 49ers and the Dolphins.
So why am I writing about Zay Jones if he has been so inefficient? Because what he lacks in efficiency, he’ll have every opportunity to make up with his volume.
The fact of the matter is that Jones is the only healthy option in the Bills’ passing game right now (other than LeSean McCoy, that is). With the recent injuries to Jordan Matthews and Charles Clay, Jones is simply the last man standing.
As I am sure you have heard, opportunity is king in fantasy football. A player doesn’t have to be efficient if they see substantial volume, and Zay Jones is going to see substantial volume in the Bills’ passing offense. As fantasy players we can only hope that he turns his abysmal efficiency around and gets on the same page as Tyrod Taylor, but for now Jones has arguably the largest opportunity share of any rookie wide receiver in the league.
The Not-So-Temporary Fill-In
Taywan Taylor is the last rookie wide receiver I wanted to touch on today because he embodies one of the other ways a rookie receiver can find their way into fantasy football relevance.
The Titans drafted Taylor in the third round of this year’s draft after selecting Corey Davis with the fifth overall pick. It seemed Taylor was already destined to live in Davis’ shadow by the time the Titans signed free agent Eric Decker. Not to mention that the Titans already had an established primary receiver in Rishard Matthews. In August it certainly looked like Taylor would face an uphill battle to see any time on the field.
So how has Taylor found his way into a relevant role on the Titans? His flexibility and pure football skill. It seems like hindsight analysis now, but in Taylor’s last two seasons at Western Kentucky he had 1,467 and 1,730 receiving yards respectively. That level of production shows that the guy can clearly play football.
It’s clear now that the Titans’ coaching staff sees that too. In Corey Davis‘ absence they are not only involving Taylor in the passing game, but also designing rush plays for the rookie as well. Taylor has had at least one rush in each of the last four games.
Davis’ injury obviously opened up the door for Taylor to play more offensive snaps, but Taylor’s utility has helped ensure that he stays on the field in the face of veteran competition from Decker and Matthews. While Decker and Matthews are playing more snaps than Taylor (for now), Taylor’s effectiveness has helped him stand his ground.
Through the five games so far this season, Taylor has also seen a substantial uptick in his own offensive snaps. It was easy to miss this over the last two weeks because Marcus Mariota‘s injury stymied the offense, but Taylor has been in there and his role is growing.
Per PlayerProfiler.com’s Target Premium metric, which measures the additional production a pass-catcher adds on a per-target basis when compared to his teammates, Taylor is the most efficient wide receiver of the group. The Target Premium metric does a good job of factoring out the poor quarterback play of Matt Cassel and isolating the individual production of the Titans receivers.
Taylor is stubbornly making his case to the Titans coaching staff that he deserves opportunities even when Corey Davis returns from his injury. He essentially began as a backup, but has simply been too effective to keep off the field. While the veterans on his team have struggled with inefficiency, he keeps making plays every time he touches the ball. He isn’t fantasy relevant yet, but when Mariota returns from his hamstring injury Taylor’s will be a name to watch.
Conclusion
Each of the three receivers highlighted above embody one of the many ways a rookie wide receiver can find themselves onto your fantasy rosters. JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s efficiency leapt off the page to his coaches, who immediately promoted him to a starting role. Zay Jones emerged as the only unscathed pass-catcher on his team’s offense, and despite his inefficiency projects to receive a huge opportunity share.
Taylor’s path to fantasy relevance is important to highlight because it’s more subtle and yet more common than either JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s or Zay Jones‘ paths. Taylor has shown us early on that he is capable of producing when given opportunity. His success has been overshadowed and obscured thus far, but his will be a name to know if there is any shakeup on the Titans’ depth chart.
That’s it for this week’s Rookie Report. We didn’t go over any of the huge rookie performances from Week 5 (holy cow, Aaron Jones!), but I hope you were able to take away something from the breakdown of how each of these rookies became or could become fantasy assets. I’ll be back next week with more rookie information but until then, good luck in your games this weekend.
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Aidan Mcgrath is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Aidan, check out his archive and follow him @ffaidanmcgrath.
