Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight five intriguing wide receiver statistics from Week 10 you should know about.
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ADAM THIELEN IS ON PACE TO FINISH AS A WR1
Thielen is averaging 9.7 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 88.2 receiving yards per game through nine games. Last season he averaged 5.8 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 60.4 receiving yards per game. Thielen is on pace to annihilate his 2016 statistical production with seven games left. He owned a 43 percent target share and led the Vikings with 132 Air Yards against the Redskins. Air Yards allow us to understand how many yards are behind the targets a player receives. It allows us to better understand the volume a wide receiver receives which is the lifeblood of fantasy points. DeAndre Hopkins (106), Antonio Brown (101), and Jarvis Landry (97) are the only wide receivers with more targets than Thielen (88) this season.
MICHAEL THOMAS LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN WEIGHTED OPPORTUNITY RATING
Thomas’ fantasy production has been impacted by the Saints positive or negative game scripts this season. The team has not had to leverage their aerial attack much this season. Thomas has averaged 9.2 targets, 6.6 receptions, 73.6 receiving yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game through nine games. He had a solid week finishing as the WR11 in PPR formats despite quarterback Drew Brees only having to throw the football five times in the second half of Week 10 as the Saints imposed their will on the Bills with their running game. Thomas lead all WRs in Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. He will go boom sooner rather than later and remains a solid WR1.
GOLDEN TATE LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN RECEIVER AIR CONVERSION RATIO
Tate caught six of seven targets for 97 receiving yards and a touchdown with 75.2 percent of his yards coming after the catch. He only had an aDOT or depth of target of 3.6 yards. Tate led all WRs with a Receiver Air Conversion Ratio of 3.88. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. Tate has generated 80 receiving yards or more in three straight games and remains a solid WR2 moving forward.
ROBERT WOODS LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS IN YARDS
Woods generated 117 Air Yards and owned a 26 percent target share against the Texans. He set a new career high in yardage and is currently the WR15 in PPR formats. Woods, not Sammy Watkins, has emerged as the Rams number one WR.
Woods is averaging 6.6 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 69.1 receiving yards per game. He can be viewed as a WR2. The Rams face the Vikings, Saints, Cardinals, Eagles, Seahawks, and Titans for the rest of the fantasy season.
ROBBY ANDERSON IS ON THE WR2 RADAR
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/929817406230355968
Anderson caught four of seven targets for 85 receiving yards and a touchdown. He led the Jets in Air Yards with 167, had an aDOT of 23.8, and has caught a touchdown in four straight games. Anderson and the Jets WRs have some challenging matchups coming out of the bye week against the Panthers, Chiefs, and Broncos. He is averaging 6.4 targets, 3.5 receptions, 56.8 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game through 10 games. Anderson currently has a positive receiving fantasy points over expectation, which suggests he is outperforming relative to his target volume. He’s currently the WR21 in PPR formats and can be viewed every week as a low-end WR2.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.