Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will highlight five intriguing statistics from Week 8 you should know about.
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1. Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson accounted for 951 total yards.
Did you know the Texans and Seahawks entered Week 8 with top-10 pass defenses? Both Watson and Wilson helped win matchups for fantasy players with impressive offensive performances.
| Player | Comp | Att | Pct | Yds | Yds/Att | TD | Int | QBR | RuAtt | RuYds |
Fantasy Points
|
| Russell Wilson | 26 | 41 | 63 | 452 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 123 | 4 | 30 | 35.08 |
| Deshaun Watson | 19 | 30 | 63 | 402 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 107 | 8 | 67 | 32.78 |
Watson (67) and Wilson (30) both led their teams in rushing yards.
Watson is averaging 29.14 pass attempts, 242.7 passing yards, 2.7 touchdowns, 5.1 rushing attempts, 38.4 rushing yards, and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game this season. He currently has the sixth highest DYAR or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement according to Football Outsiders. This metric is used to show a quarterback’s total value.
Wilson is averaging 36.86 pass attempts, 286.9 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns, 5.1 rushing attempts, 27.7 rushing yards, and 0.1 rushing touchdowns per game this season. He currently has the 13th highest DYAR or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement according to Football Outsiders.
Watson and Wilson should be started weekly in season-long formats and have a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season.
2. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins accounted for 381 Air Yards
Hopkins (100) and Fuller (89) finished Week 8 as the WR1 and WR3 in PPR formats while playing a high percentage of snaps.
| Player | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD |
PPR Fantasy Points
|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11 | 8 | 73 | 224 | 1 | 28.4 |
| Will Fuller | 8 | 5 | 63 | 125 | 2 | 24.5 |
Josh Hermsmeyer, the head of analytics at RotoViz, is a champion of leveraging the air yards metric to have better clarity on fantasy production. As he mentioned in a RotoViz article last year:
Standard stats tell us probably the most important facts about how a WR performed. We know how many times they were targeted, how many times they caught the ball, and how many yards they were credited with after catching a pass. Air yards fill in the gaps in our understanding. Now we can see how a WR is used by his team and how he produces his receiving yards.
Fuller led all wide receivers with 209 air yards while Hopkins ranked fourth with 172 while accumulating 50 percent of receiving yards after the catch. Fuller can be started every week as a boom or bust WR3 who possesses WR1 upside and Hopkins continue to be an elite WR1.
3. Jamison Crowder had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating
Crowder caught nine of 13 targets for 123 receiving yards against the Cowboys generating 103 air yards. He tied his career-high with nine catches while setting a new one in receiving yards and played nearly 95 percent of the offensive snaps. Weighted Opportunity Rating or WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards.
My big takeaway from this game is that the Redskins treated Crowder as their number one receiver, but can you depend on him each and every week? He only had an aDOT or average depth of target of 7.9 yards. This is likely a result of the rainy weather that took place during the game. Crowder has only averaged 6.1 targets, four receptions, and 38.9 receiving yards per game this season. He has a tough matchup against the Seahawks secondary in Week 9, but can be deployed into lineups as a WR3.
4. LeSean McCoy led the Bills with seven targets.
Did you know McCoy has a target share of 24.5 percent this season? He accumulated 173 yards on 33 touches against the Raiders. McCoy played 73 percent of the offensive snaps and touched the football or was targeted on 68 percent of them. The Bills coaching staff used the bye week to course correct their running game and as a result, he has thrived. McCoy was an excellent buy-low candidate heading into the bye week due to his favorable schedule.
McCoy has averaged 19.6 rushing attempts, 74.4 rushing yards, 0.4 touchdowns, 6.6 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 34.6 receiving yards per game this season. He can continue to be viewed as an elite RB1 against the Jets in Week 9. The Jets defense is allowing the eighth most fantasy points per game this season.
5. Juju Smith-Schuster had a Receiver Air Conversion Ratio of 1.69.
Smith-Schuster caught seven of 10 targets for 193 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Lions. He had 114 air yards and the highest Receiver Air Conversion Ratio or RACR of wide receivers with five or more targets. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can also be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yards thrown at him. This and other metrics can be found on Hermsmeyer’s AirYards.com.
Smith-Schuster thrived in a game in which Martavis Bryant was inactive. He played 80 percent of the offensive snaps and was targeted on 20 percent of them. Smith-Schuster benefited from Lions cornerback Darius Slay covering Antonio Brown, but there is a high probability that he will remain the starter for the rest of the season.
If Smith-Schuster is available in your league he would be my top add at the wide receiver position. He has a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season.
What Comes Next?
The purpose of this column is to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. Please be on the lookout for this column every Wednesday during the regular season. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.