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2018 Busts (Fantasy Baseball)

2018 Busts (Fantasy Baseball)

First of all, let me set the guidelines for who qualifies as a bust candidate. A bust isn’t a sleeper or mid- to late-round pick who generates buzz and fails to live up to the hype. Simply put, a high percentage of those players failing is bound to happen, and they’re replaceable out of the free-agent pool. In order for a player to qualify as a potential bust, they have to be an early-round pick. Initially, I set out with a soft rule of a thumb that a player needed to be a top-100 pick in order to be considered for this piece. One player barely outside the top-100 players in ADP stood out as especially worthy of inclusion, so I’ve given him the nod, too.

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Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – LAD): 26.3
At this point, it probably feels like I hate Bellinger. I don’t. He’s an elite player to own in keeper and dynasty formats. In just 132 games in the regular season for the Dodgers last year, Bellinger smacked 39 homers, scored 87 runs, stole 10 bases, tallied 97 RBIs, and hit .267. His rookie season indicates the type of sky-high ceiling he has, but there are legitimate blemishes in his profile that makes his near second-round ADP risky.

Namely, he punched out in 26.6% of his plate appearances in the regular season before fanning in 43.3% of his postseason plate appearances, according to FanGraphs. Among qualified hitters in 2017, Bellinger’s Z-Contact% (77.0%) was the third lowest, and he was one of just eight players with an overall Contact% under 70% (69.6%). The contact issues were exploited to the maximum in the postseason, but they also began to be thoroughly exposed at the end of the regular season. From September 1 until the end of the regular season, Bellinger punched out in 28.3% of his plate appearances. The first baseman’s power is tantalizing, and his double-digit stolen base output is quite helpful, too. The Dodgers boast a talented lineup that will award him significant runs and RBIs upside, but there’s serious batting average risk that’s not baked into his ADP.

To be clear, I have Bellinger just inside the top-50 players overall at 48th. Again, I don’t hate him, but a 22-spot gap between his ADP and my overall ranking is massive that early in the draft.

Marcell Ozuna (OF – STL): 46.0
Ozuna is coming off of a full-season breakout in his age-26 season. There’s reason to believe he’ll fall short of duplicating his 2017 campaign this year. In three years prior to 2017, Ozuna tallied a 6.7% BB%, .316 BABIP, 32.7% O-Swing%, 66.1% Z-Swing%, 12.4% SwStr%, and slash line of .265/.316/.433. Last year, his walk rate surged to 9.4% despite a higher O-Swing% (33.1%), Z-Swing% (73.1%), and SwStr% (12.7%) than the three prior years. The sizable gain in walk rate doesn’t look legitimate. Furthermore, his .312 batting average was propped up by a .355 BABIP. It’s more likely he falls short of a .290 average this year than he matches last year’s mark. A drop in OBP from a regression to his walk rate and BABIP would also hurt his run scoring upside. Ozuna has the thump in his stick to best 30 taters again, but power is an easy commodity to come by with MLB’s juiced ball.

Chris Archer (SP – TB): 55.8
Archer has top-shelf bat-missing stuff as evidenced by his 13.4% SwStr% and 29.2% K% in 2017, but he’s also responsible for an ERA north of four each of the last two years (4.05 ERA in 2016-2017). The righty’s 3.60 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, and 3.47 SIERA over the last two years combined suggest he’s been unlucky, but I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. Archer’s a fastball/slider pitcher, and he’s thrown his changeup under 10% of the time over the last two years. Last season, his two-pitch mix resulted in a .326 wOBA, 24.6% LD%, and 43.3% Hard% coughed up to left-handed batters. Among qualified pitchers last year, Archer’s 39.4% Hard% allowed was the second highest. To Archer’s credit, he’s reportedly trying to improve his changeup this spring. If he’s able to make strides with it and carry them over to the regular season, he could deliver on his ADP. That’s a big if, though.

Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET): 90.0
In 2016, Miggy swatted 38 bombs and slashed .316/.393/.563. He was a stud then. Last year, he hit 16 homers and .249/.329/.399. Forecasting Cabrera to bust isn’t just a knee-jerk reaction to a down year. Cabrera’s down year last season was the result of playing through a pair of herniated disks in his back. The back pain surfaced during the World Baseball Classic and clearly hindered his play last year. Cabrera didn’t undergo surgery on his back in the offseason, and he instead opted work on strength and conditioning. The linked piece from ESPN Senior Writer Jerry Crasnick paints a positive picture of Miggy’s health this spring. Still, Cabrera will be 35 years old in the middle of April, and it’s not unfair to question if the rigors of a full season will irritate his back. Also, while I tend to not put too much stock in Spring Training numbers, it’s discouraging to see Cabrera reach the seats only one time with an underwhelming .171 ISO through 46 plate appearances. The future HOFer has hit 25 homers or fewer in three of the last four years, has fallen short of a .200 ISO in two of the last three years, and he’s coming off of a serious back injury that resulted in a career-worst season.

Alex Wood (SP – LAD): 104.7
Wood’s full-season totals in 2017 were strong, but breaking things down by halves casts serious doubt on him approaching that production this season. In the first half of 2017, the lefty spun a 1.67 ERA (2.04 FIP, 2.58 xFIP, and 2.83 SIERA) with a 0.89 WHIP, 7.0% BB%, 30.9% K%, 63.5% GB%, 36.6% O-Swing%, and 13.6% SwStr%. In the second half of 2017, Wood’s numbers cratered to a 3.89 ERA (4.76 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA) with a 1.24 WHIP, 5.3% BB%, 18.0% K%, 44.2% GB%, 35.6% O-Swing%, and 9.7% SwStr%. Probably not coincidentally, his numbers slid as his velocity bottomed out. According to Brooks Baseball, his sinker had an average velocity of 93.62 mph in April and dropped every month before settling at 90.46 mph in October. Toss in that Wood’s never topped 190 innings pitched in a season, and he should be drafted closer to pick 150 than pick 100.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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