Drafts are in full swing, and there have been countless articles on sleepers for the various categories used in fantasy baseball, such as runs and RBI. However, while many secondary stats have been developed to predict a player’s future performance, not many of these are official categories on mainstream fantasy websites. Many fantasy baseballers would prefer to see on-base percentage (OBP) used instead of batting average, but we likely will have to wait for future seasons for this to be implemented.
Some rebels in the fantasy community are choosing to do custom leagues on these mainstream sites, or find other fantasy sites in which using OBP is more common. To help out these owners, I’ve compiled early, middle, and late round players who should get a bump in the rankings if your league uses OBP. Based on FantasyPro’s 2018 projections, the average player will have an OBP of 60 points higher than their average, so I targeted players significantly above this threshold.
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Early-Round Value
Within the top 15 of FantasyPro’s projections, four names stand out for a higher than normal OBP-BA difference: Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, Joey Votto, and Anthony Rizzo. Of course, Mike Trout has a high OBP, but you don’t need me to tell you to draft him first. Harper and Votto look to be the ones that would have a change in draft position in OBP leagues.
Harper and Mookie Betts are typically drafted in the middle of the first round. Based on the projections, Harper and Betts look to be similar players (Betts trades slightly less power for more steals) but once OBP is factored in, Harper jumps out as the player to pick. While both are projected hit around .295, Harper’s OBP projects to .409, compared to Betts at .361. Harper clearly jumps Betts in an OBP league.
In the same vein, Votto is currently being picked behind Charlie Blackmon and Giancarlo Stanton in normal leagues, but when OBP is considered, Votto should be bumped up a few picks. His .437 OBP is impossible to ignore, and while Blackmon will steal more bags and Stanton will hit more homers, Votto is head and shoulders above both of these players in OBP (about 70 points), as well as everyone else in the league.
Mid-Round Value
Regardless of who you pick in the early rounds, you’re likely to end up with great value. However, knowing the kings of OBP becomes more important in the middle and later rounds. Three guys who pop out here are Carlos Santana, Matt Carpenter, and Brandon Belt.
In standard leagues, Carlos Santana is projected behind Ian Desmond, Jake Lamb, and Mike Moustakas. Desmond has a higher average and will steal more bases, and Moustakas and Lamb will likely drive in more RBI, but when factoring in OBP, this is not even close. Even with the lower projected average, Santana still has a 20 point increase in OBP on Desmond. Santana is projected to hit .255, but his OBP is .362 – a 107 point difference. Lamb is nothing to sneeze at either, with a 93 point difference. However, given the humidor effect and Santana likely to hit a few more bombs, Santana can be a top 70 pick in OBP leagues, sneaking in front of Adam Jones. Moustakas only has a .319 projected OBP, thus moving him back a few spots, and definitely behind Santana.
Carpenter’s projections are right behind Didi Gregorius and Nick Castellanos. They are all projected to hit between 22-25 homers, and Carpenter sacrifices fewer RBI for more runs in the Cardinals offense. Castellanos and Gregorius are projected for higher averages than Carpenter, but Carpenter gets on base at a 40-50 point higher clip, thus making Carpenter the pick.
Moving down the line, Brandon Belt is projected as the 158th best player on FantasyPros, but his 105 point difference in batting average to OBP is substantially better than Ryon Healy (.306 OBP) and Kendrys Morales (.318 OBP) – just a few of the guys being drafted in front of Belt. In an OBP league, Belt can jump into the top 150.
Late-Round Value (Catchers Galore)
This is where a lot of players begin to look alike, and not many players stand out in one category – and if they do stand out in OBP, it is because their batting average is not ideal. Thus, we land in catcher’s paradise.
Austin Barnes, Chris Iannetta, and Alex Avila all have an OBP-BA difference above 84 points. In the landmine of average catchers, these guys jump off the page when you missed out on the good catchers in the early and middle rounds, and need a guy in an OBP league to help out. For example, Iannetta has a similar batting average to Austin Hedges and Robinson Chirinos (all between .235-.240), but his OBP is significantly above both of these players, clipping .330, versus .271 for Hedges and .311 for Chirinos. You can apply the same philosophy to the other named catchers – hopefully, you do not have to draft one of them, but if you do, you know who to target.
While batting average can be volatile from season to the next, due to having lucky or unlucky BABIP and ballpark factors, OBP tends to remain more consistent each year. Hopefully, fantasy sites will recognize that and give OBP its due.
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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
