Usually when I research for an article, one of the main things I look for in a pick is how well that player has performed in the past on the upcoming course. This week, I’ll need to find another method. The AT&T Byron Nelson is leaving TPC Southwind, and instead will be hosted by Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, which has never before been home to a PGA Tour event.
There are a few very notable features about the course this week, or should I say absences. There are no trees, there is no rough, and there are no water hazards. Your initial reaction may be, “is this even a golf course?” I assure you it is, and I assure you that it will force golfers to shy away from their usual approach. Trinity Forest has been described by many as a links-style golf course, comparable to courses found in Scotland or Ireland, and the windy conditions often found at those overseas locations can be found this week in Texas as well.
Texas natives and low-ball hitters will be worth a long hard look this week, as there isn’t too much else to go on. Before revealing the recommendations for Dallas this week, it’s time to peek at last weeks’ results from The Players Championship.
Rory McIlroy: MC
Jason Day: T-5
Henrik Stenson: T-23
Patrick Reed: T-41
Ian Poulter: T-11
If not for Webb Simpson running away with the event, Day would have been right in the thick of things, finishing only a shot back from second place. Stenson and Poulter each had solid finishes, while McIlroy’s missed cut surprised me given his solid record at Sawgrass in the past. It’s been a while since I’ve given you guys a winner, so let’s hope he emerges this week.
Top-Tier Recommendations
Billy Horschel ($9,700)
Horschel is our defending champion this week, although the tournament was played at TPC Southwind last year. However, it still shows his ability to get it done in weather conditions that will undoubtedly be similar this week. Arguably the hottest player on tour, Horschel finished fifth at the RBC Heritage earlier this year before following that with an 11th at Valero (Texas weather) and a victory in New Orleans as Scott Piercy’s playing partner at the Zurich Classic. There aren’t many inspiring chalk plays this week, so Horschel’s momentum stands out. Lock him in.
Jimmy Walker ($9,500)
Okay I lied, Walker might be the hottest player on tour right now. T-25 is his worst finish in his last four starts, which was at the Zurich Classic (pairs format). Before that, he finished T-20 at Augusta, fourth at Valero, and he’s now coming off his best finish of the season, earning a tie for second thanks to flawless play all week at TPC Sawgrass. He’s a Texas native, so Walker is used to the windy conditions that he will be faced with this week.
I wrote about Walker earlier in the year, and he was less than $8,000. When a player makes this large of a price jump during the season, it’s because their play is improving. Walker’s arrow is pointing way up right now.
Mid-Priced Plays
Adam Scott ($9,200)
Adam Scott is another player who is coming off a season-best finish, as the Aussie placed T-11 at the Players Championship. The reason I like Scott a lot this week is because of the style of Trinity Forest. It is a links-style course, and Scott’s track record on links courses is impeccable.
For the best examples, examine his past finishes in the Open Championship, an event that is always played on links-style courses, and an event that has seen him finish in the top-10 five different times. Three of those top-10 finishes were top fives, and the most recent top-10 was in 2015. He finished T-22 at last year’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. The combination of current momentum and links golf affinity is too hard to ignore this week.
Sleepers for Cheaper
Joel Dahmen ($7,100)
It’s a good week to use sleepers because course experience is basically out the window this week, which levels the playing field quite a bit. For this reason, I decided to find some cheap players who are in solid form. Joel Dahmen finished T-13 earlier this year at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, a course that is exposed to a lot of wind. His most recent start was a 16th place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship, and sandwiched between those two was a T-25 finish at the Zurich Classic.
His form is on the rise, and he costs next to nothing. As I mentioned earlier, a player like this does have a better shot at winning this week than most other weeks.
Andrew Putnam ($6,900)
I was honestly surprised to see Putnam this cheap because he’s a been playing excellent golf as of late. This may be the first time I’ve recommended a sleeper that was less than $7,000, but he is not the worst sleeper I’ve written about. Not only has he been playing well lately, but he’s been doing it: A) in Texas, and B) in windy conditions.
The finishes in his last four complete events include top-five at Corales (windy), 32nd in Houston (Texas), top-eight at Valero (windy and in Texas), and T-15 at the Zurich Classic. It’s rare to find someone that checks so many boxes this week at such an astronomically low price. If I made multiple lineups this week, it would be hard not to include him in all of them.
Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
