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Philip Rivers is Still a Solid QB1 (Fantasy Football)

Philip Rivers is Still a Solid QB1 (Fantasy Football)

One of the most interesting discussions in fantasy football is centered around the smartest approach to addressing the quarterback position. While there will always be some that favor drafting an elite option in the early rounds, an unprecedented surplus of startable options has popularized the idea of waiting on a signal caller until the later stages of the draft. Some have taken it as far as to forego drafting a passer altogether, instead of streaming a different player in a plus match-up on a week-to-week basis.

But what if I told you there was a quarterback you could target in the later rounds who was an absolute guarantee to produce as a high-end option this season? A player who has been a premium fantasy asset for over a decade and has shown no signs of slowing down.

Someone who is running one of the most talented offenses in the NFL and is currently positioned 101st (QB12) in our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). It may sound too good to be true, but that player is right there for the taking in 2018…and his name is Philip Rivers.

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Model of Consistency
Since becoming the full-time starter for the (then) San Diego Chargers, Rivers has been a veritable metronome of consistency. Over the course of his 12 seasons under center, he has never missed a single start. In fact, with 192 consecutive appearances, the seven-time Pro Bowler is the owner of the league’s longest active quarterback streak. That, in and of itself, is a remarkable accomplishment.

But for fantasy purposes (which is what we’re most concerned about), the area where he really shines is his statistical brilliance. In standard 12-team fantasy leagues, any signal caller that finishes in the top-12 at his position in any given season is a QB1. Rivers has achieved this distinction an incredible nine times during his tenure as a starter and there are many reasons why.

Here are just a few of Rivers’ incredible accomplishments:

• Passed for over 4,000 yards in eight of his last nine seasons.
• Averaged 29.8 touchdown passes per year over his last 10 campaigns.
• Career touchdown pass percentage of 5.3% ranks fourth among active passers.
• Career adjusted yards per pass attempt of 7.66 ranks eighth all-time.
• Career completion percentage of 64.2% ranks 10th all-time.
• Career average of 256.9 passing yards per game ranks 11th all-time.

I could go on, but the point has been made. Rivers is an ideal combination of opportunity, efficiency, and availability.

This is a player who almost never gets injured, and on the rare occasion that he does, he grits his teeth and plays through it. This is the same man who played in a Conference Championship game with a torn ACL back in 2008, after all. Simply put, there are very few players in the NFL who are as reliable as Rivers, and that has been the case for some time now.

Keenan Allen Factor
With all that said, since we’re discussing Rivers’ prospects for the coming season, it’s probably best to focus our analysis on what he’s accomplished in recent years. To that end, here’s a look at his performance over his last five NFL campaigns:

Season Passing Yards Pass TDs Interceptions Fantasy Points Overall Finish
2013 4,478 32 11 287.42 QB6
2014 4,286 31 18 265.84 QB12
2015 4,792 29 13 284.48 QB12
2016 4,386 33 21 258.94 QB14
2017 4,515 28 10 270.4 QB8

As you can see, he produced a QB1 season four out of five times, with the lone exception being a 2016 season in which he committed 26 total turnovers. So what allowed him to climb to QB6 and QB8 overall finishes in 2013 and 2017, respectively? While there’s isn’t one definitive answer to that question, it had a lot to do with the contributions of his number one wide receiver, Keenan Allen.

Allen, last year’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year, has been with the team for all five of the aforementioned campaigns, but his availability has often been in question. In 2013, he tore out of the gate as a rookie with 1,046 receiving yards. However, the following year, he regressed a bit before a broken collarbone and nagging ankle injuries ended his season in Week 15.

Allen went on to miss 23 more games in 2015 and 2016 due to a lacerated kidney and a torn ACL, but in 2017, he was back to full health, hauling in 102 catches for 1,393 yards and showing how utterly dominant he could be.

Bottom line? When Allen is at his best, Rivers is a primary beneficiary, turning the ball over less and generally playing more efficient football. In fact, Rivers averaged 8.0 adjusted yards per passing attempt or better in both of Allen’s 1,000-plus yards campaigns.

Entering 2018, Allen is fully healthy and primed for another big year. So why is Rivers ranked as the QB12, again?

Tremendous Supporting Cast
As fantastic as Allen is, he’s only one piece of the puzzle. Yes, the days of Rivers being surrounded with Hall of Fame talents like LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are a thing of the past, but a strong argument can be made that in 2018, he will enjoy the deepest supporting cast of his career.

Fourth-year wideout Tyrell Williams is a big play waiting to happen, with a career average of 16.5 yards per reception and a 1,000-yard season to his name. Sophomore pass-catcher Mike Williams was so productive at Clemson, the Chargers invested the seventh overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft in him. While injuries derailed his rookie campaign, he should be much more productive at full health and with another offseason under his belt. Furthermore, running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 85 receptions in 2017, and will remain prominently featured in the passing game going forward.

The season-ending ACL tear sustained by Hunter Henry is devastating news for both the talented young tight end and the offense as a whole, but it isn’t necessarily a reason to shy away from Rivers. For one thing, the injury could reasonably push Rivers even further down rank lists, and it also increases the likelihood that the team will bring back Gates, who can still function as a reliable red zone target for his long-time teammate. Although he doesn’t possess the athleticism he once did, his chemistry with Rivers cannot be understated.

2018 Outlook
Ultimately, Rivers’ track record illustrates that he possesses both an incredibly high floor and an equally high ceiling. Draft him, and you can essentially bank on 4,000-plus yards and 27-plus touchdowns. The list of quarterbacks that offer that sort of guarantee is remarkably short, if not completely non-existent.

Year in and year out, Rivers is constantly underrated in fantasy circles and falls much lower than he should on draft day. In 2018, you would be wise to end his slide. With a history of incredible production and a highly talented supporting cast surrounding him, he could easily finish in the top seven at his position.

This year, if you’re unsure about the prospects of quarterback streaming and are firmly opposed to investing a high draft pick in a quarterback, there’s one very simple and effective solution for you to consider. Exploit one of the most pronounced market inefficiencies in fantasy football. Scoop up Philip Rivers at a discount cost, and enjoy the rewards all season long.

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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.

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