With the NFL combine just days away, it is time to take a second look at a dynasty league rookie mock draft. There has been some major movement outside of the top two names, with a couple of receivers moving into Round 1 and a couple of running backs falling out. We will keep it to one round for our final pre-combine rookie mock with an eye on expanding to two or even three rounds following an important week of athletic testing, measurements, and interviews.
This is turning out to be interesting and exceedingly deep draft class. Even among the abundance of talent, the names mocked here in Round 1 stand out above the rest. This draft class offers skyscrapers, and electric slots to choose from at wide receiver, while contact balance is the operative word to describe many of the class’ top runners. Any of the first nine names on this list have a legitimate argument to be the 1.01 dynasty rookie draft pick and are all worthy selections at this point of the pre-draft process.
As always a mock draft is not a rundown of current or expected ADP for your rookie drafts. This mock aims to pinpoint the top talents and dynasty contributors. Expected draft position likewise does not play a role in a rookie mock draft occurring before the actual NFL Draft. Opportunity will ultimately dictate where these rookies go in drafts that occur following the NFL Draft, but for those of us who draft beforehand, talent wins out.
1.01 – Rodney Anderson (RB – Oklahoma)
The talent gap between Anderson and the rest of the running back class is too big to be closed by his injury history alone. The only back in this class with a truly elite RB1 skill set is Anderson. He would be the only back in the Day 1 conversation had he not suffered yet another season-ending injury in 2018. Anderson has natural hands and elite cutting ability, which he pairs with size, contact balance, and power.
In his eight games as a starter beside Baker Mayfield, he went off for 1,079 yards rushing, 11 touchdowns, 14 receptions, 254 yards receiving and five receiving touchdowns. Doing so in a backfield he shared with a likely 2020 Day 2 pick, Trey Sermon (who opened the season as the starter), makes these numbers all the more significant.
Anderson likely will not be the first running back off the board this April, and may even last until Day 3 in the NFL Draft. With that said, if you are participating in a rookie draft prior to the NFL’s, you are (hopefully) drafting based on talent. Anderson is the most talented running back in this class and it’s not really that close. Landing spot will be key, as it is with all running backs, and will be the determining factor for the career trajectory of a player of Anderson’s caliber, not draft slot.
Had he declared, even in a loaded 2018 NFL Draft, Anderson would have been a Day 2 pick and drafted to start. Returning to school was supposed to improve his draft stock and make him the lone Day 1 talent in a class lacking other names with elite tools. Only Hakeem Butler running a sub 4.4, or a devastating medical check can knock Anderson off the top of the 2019 rookie mountain.
(Previous: First overall)
1.02 – Darrell Henderson (RB – Memphis)
Henderson is arguably the most exciting running back in this entire draft class. He has shown elite contact balance and posted more yards after contact than most running backs in this class recorded in total. 1,321 yards after contact translates to 6.17 yards after contact per attempt, a number that only makes sense when you consider Henderson posted back-to-back 8.9 yard per carry seasons. Henderson forced 56 missed tackles for a solid 0.26 per attempt and proved he has the goods in the passing game with 1.67 yards per route run.
Henderson reminds me a lot of Aaron Jones on tape, but has better hands and looks like he may test more explosively as well. Another comparison that comes to mind is that of fellow former Memphis Tiger, DeAngelo Williams.
(Previous: Second overall)
1.03 – David Montgomery (RB – Iowa State)
100 missed tackles forced — just let that sink in. Montgomery is quickly gaining steam as the consensus top running back in this draft class. Like Anderson and Henderson above, Montgomery has great elusiveness and open field ability. He profiles as an every down back who will push for RB2-level value immediately. Montgomery has among the best chances of being drafted to start, and should quickly become one of the most exciting backs in the league to watch.
He has spectacular contact balance and led the nation with 0.38 missed tackles forced per carry. His 892 yards after contact is more than Josh Jacobs ran for in total all season, and highlights what a weapon he is with the ball in his hands, whether operating as a runner or receiver. Montgomery may not have the ceiling of the names above him, but is the safest running back in this draft class for dynasty league rookie drafts.
(Previous: Fourth overall)
1.04 – A.J. Brown (WR – Ole Miss)
Brown is a physical receiver who can win inside and out. Brown may not have the upside of some of the other receivers in this class, but has the game to become the most productive. He led a team full of 2019 NFL Draft picks in receiving two years running. That team included a player who some have as the top receiver in this class in D.K. Metcalf.
Brown is a beast with the ball in his hands, where he turns into a Josh Gordon-type runner, with moves like a running back, and the physicality to match. Brown should be one of the annual leaders in both yards after the catch and yards after catch above expectation. His 7.1 yards after the catch, despite playing with a late-round quarterback at best helps to accentuate his upside in this department. Heading into the combine, many are questioning Brown’s long speed, but any concerns regarding his explosiveness as a receiver should be put to rest, as his 33 plays of over 20 yards placed him fifth in the nation.
(Previous: Fourth overall)
1.05 – Hakeem Butler (WR – Iowa State)
Butler is the most intriguing prospect in this draft class. A towering 6’6″ wide receiver with legitimate Day 1 football skills is a rare sight to behold. Watching him learn the nuances of beating press from “Megatron” himself has brought my excitement to a fever pitch. Butler has the talent and skill to be a 10-touchdown, 1,000-yard receiver out of the gate and can only be held back by poor quarterback play. I am sure Matthew Stafford has already been in Matt Patricia’s ear regarding the skyscraper from Iowa State, and he should be one of the first, if not the first, receivers off of the board this April.
Surprisingly, Butler is just as good on the inside as he is out wide. His 721 deep receiving yards led the FBS, but his 5.21 yards per slot route run (second) was equally impressive. Butler can dominate all over the field and profiles as the ultimate mismatch, regardless of coverage. He is a great pick whether it is at 1.01 or 1.08. Find a way to get him on your team on your dynasty league’s rookie draft day.
(Previous: 12th overall)
1.06 – Kelvin Harmon (WR – North Carolina State)
Harmon may be the safest wide receiver in this draft class. Supremely talented, he makes one think of former Houston Texan Andre Johnson. A lunch pail and hard hat receiver that can win both over the shoulder and high pointing the ball, Harmon is an NFL ready playmaker.
His 17 contested catches tied him for eighth in the nation, and helps to bring context to the great body control and catch radius he displays on film. Harmon rocked a solid 2.83 yards per route run for NC State, and while his 3.1 yards after catch per reception is not at the elite level as some others in this class, it does show that he will be able to be productive in a variety of schemes. Harmon is the player to draft for those looking for the best combination of upside and floor, even at 1.01.
(Previous: Round 2)
1.07 – N’Keal Harry (WR – Arizona State)
One of the most exciting wide receivers in this draft class is Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry. Harry can win downfield, but also dominates after the catch (7.1 yards after catch per reception), making him one of the first wide receivers off the board in most mocks and rookie drafts. When Larry Fitzgerald claims that a college wide receiver is better than he was in college, you are forced to pay attention. Harry is an explosive 50/50 ball winner who hauled in 17 contested catches, tying him with Kelvin Harmon for eighth in the nation. Harry showed off his upside with his 2.71 yards per route run, and could become an instant number one option if he lands on the right depth chart.
Harry is one of the trendier picks at the top of rookie drafts, and it is for good reason. He may indeed have the most tantalizing tool set outside of D.K. Metcalf, but actually has the production to back up the hype he has generated. As one of the few receivers with a legitimate chance to go in Round 1, Harry was selected by the Baltimore Ravens in my most recent mock draft.
(Previous: Fifth overall)
1.08 – D.K. Metcalf (WR – Ole Miss)
The most polarizing wide receiver in this draft class could either turn out to be its most talented or go down as its biggest bust relative to draft position. Metcalf is a talented wide receiver with an underrated skill set, who could light the world on fire with a strong combine. While he had a limited route tree in college, he showed the ability to use good route stem. With two season-ending injuries and limited production even when he was on the field, Metcalf is an upside play that may just have the highest ceiling of any offensive player in this draft. He is an excellent downfield and red zone weapon, but also profiles as a receiver who can dominate after the catch.
Metcalf’s size and frame coupled with his expected speed and explosion presents a combination of tools that could turn him into one of the premier wide receivers in the league. He is a big play threat that had six plays of over 40 yards in just seven games and finished his shortened season with a 21.9 yards per reception mark. There is plenty to be excited about with Metcalf, and he is currently on average the top rookie off of the board, according to DLF ADP data.
(Previous: Sixth overall)
1.09 – Josh Jacobs (RB – Alabama)
Jacobs is a talented running back who has generated some first-round buzz from some notable analysts. As arguably the most talented healthy back in this draft class, he promises to be a long-term impact player, whether it be as a workhorse or a committee member. While he was a backup at Alabama, the team frequently ran two back sets, and Jacobs led the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. He also tied Jerry Jeudy for the team lead with 14 total touchdowns. Jacobs’ combine performance will either legitimize his first round buzz or knock him out of the conversation completely.
According to his high school recruiting numbers, Jacobs ran a 4.40 forty yard dash, but Alabama reports he ran a 4.50 in 2017. While the tenth of a second may seem minute to some, combine aficionados know that 40 times, whether sensibly or not, can often make or break a rookie’s draft stock. Jacobs is a hard-hitting power back with a good base and excellent hands, who could become a borderline RB1 on the right depth chart. While the hype machine may have got a little out of control for a runner who ran for less than 650 yards, he does have the tools to be considered the best healthy running back in this draft class.
(Previous: Third overall)
1.10 – Devin Singletary (RB – Florida Atlantic)
94 missed tackles forced, elite patience, and contact balance are the three descriptors that give you the best idea of what you are getting with Singletary. He has an every-down skill set and dominated a non-Power Five conference the way you expect any potentially elite running back prospect to do. He scored 32 touchdowns in 2017, joining Montee Ball and the legendary Barry Sanders as the only players ever to do so. Singletary scored 22 touchdowns and ran for 1,348 yards in 2018 and saw an amazing 1,027 of those yards come after contact. To put this in context, this is more yards than Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and Justice Hill had in total.
Singletary has excellent vision and great cutting ability, which he uses to make defenders miss at an elite rate. His 0.36 missed tackles forced per attempt placed him second in the nation behind only David Montgomery, and is a number that accentuates one of his greatest traits. Singletary could explode into high-end RB2 territory if he lands in the right situation and is someone to target in the first round of rookie drafts.
(Previous: Seventh overall)
1.11 – Marquise Brown (WR – Oklahoma)
An electrifying player who can operate both downfield and after the catch, Brown would be in the mix to be the first receiver off the board if he had another 20 pounds on him. He is a home-run hitter whose 3.56 yards per route run placed him fifth in the nation. He shines with the ball in his hands and ranked 10th in the nation with 8.5 yards after the catch per reception. Also one of the best deep threats in the country, Brown placed seventh with 592 deep receiving yards. If that was not enough to get you excited, he proved he is just as capable from the slot as he is out wide, by leading the nation with 7.45 yards per slot route run.
Due to his diminutive stature, Brown will likely remain one of the more divisive prospects leading up to the NFL Draft. However, in dynasty leagues he is someone that should be targeted in the first round. Brown has the talent to be a difference maker wherever he lands, and has the type of talent only poor quarterback play or offensive play calling can hold back. As arguably the most talented receiver in this entire draft class, he will instantly become one of the most exciting players in all of football.
(Previous: Round 2)
1.12 – Damien Harris (RB – Alabama)
Harris needs to be getting some more love. When you are the starter and lead back over two potential first-round pick running backs, you deserve some respect. No one is arguing that Harris looks like he is more talented than Josh Jacobs or Najee Harris. With that said, he obviously offers a skill set that is impressive enough to fend off two backs everyone thinks are superior. Harris is NFL ready as a runner, receiver, and pass protector.
While the dynasty community and fantasy community as a whole may not be as high on Harris as his talent dictates we should be, NFL teams likely recognize the high floor he presents. Harris can function as a high volume starter, but also has the skill set to be an effective committee back. While he is likely no one’s 1.01 unless he lands on the Kansas City Chiefs, he should be one of the first running backs to hear his name called during the NFL Draft and has a great chance of being drafted to compete for a starting job. Opportunity is king in the NFL, and Harris is likely to get one regardless of where he ends up.
If Harris tests as well as his high school recruiting profile suggests he might (4.40 forty time), he is going to buzz his way up draft boards both in the NFL and dynasty leagues. He is an Isaiah Crowell-type of runner with Mark Ingram (circa 2015-2017) level upside as a receiver. Harris needs to be a first-round pick in every dynasty league rookie draft leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft.
(Previous: 11th overall)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.
