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Hitters to Target for OBP/Points Leagues (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Hitters to Target for OBP/Points Leagues (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Depending on who you talk to, points leagues are either 1) a waste of time or 2) simulate baseball much better than a roto league. Since points leagues subtract for strikeouts, caught stealing (depending on the site you use), and hits and runs allowed by pitchers, you get a truer sense of a player’s ability rather than relying on ratio stats such as batting average, ERA, and WHIP. There are also cons to a points league. Fantasy is meant to be a game based around strategy, and it’s much more difficult, and more rewarding, to win a league by balancing your team in each category.

On a related note, many in the fantasy community have begun replacing batting average with on-base percentage (OBP) to place importance on walks. Hello, Moneyball. Using OBP has gotten much better fanfare than playing in a strict points league. Implementing OBP and slugging percentage (SLG) in place of batting average is an improvement to the fantasy game; averages are volatile each year, but OBP and SLG tend to be more consistent. As a result, fantasy players can predict those stats at a more precise level. But hey, if you don’t like ratios or hate change, then stay with batting average, or keep your points league. Easy as that.

Last year, I wrote a similar article on players to target in OBP and points leagues. In addition to those guys from last season, read on to look at a few more additional targets who get a bump up. You’re looking for guys who have an above-average K-BB rate along with an above-average, well, average that is supported by the underlying batted-ball profile.

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The Elite

Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
2018 K-BB%: 15.7%; OBP: .392 (courtesy of FanGraphs)

All rise. Judge has been a king of OBP leagues since he first found success with a .422 OBP in 2017. Fully healthy and entering his golden years, I would be disappointed if he didn’t exceed an OBP of .400 in 2019. Sure, you’d like his 30%+ K rate to decrease, but with how much he walks, it doesn’t really matter. Judge should be taken as a top-five pick in points leagues, where steals usually aren’t worth much.

Jose Ramirez (2B/3B – CLE)
2018 K-BB: -3.7%; OBP: .387

Given that everyone is trying to find a reason to not make Ramirez the number three pick, I have a couple of reasons why he should jump Mookie Betts in points leagues. Ramirez doubled his walk rate in 2018, which helped counter his near 50-point drop in batting average. You might notice that his K-BB% is negative; this means he walked more than he struck out! If you’re playing in a points league, Ramirez’s 2018 was actually better than Betts, given his slightly better K-BB rate. If his average bounces back to his historical levels, and his walk rate remains consistent, you could be looking at the number one overall player in points leagues.

Alex Bregman (3B/SS – HOU)
2018 K-BB%: -1.5%; OBP: .394

While the power isn’t quite elite, his on-base skills certainly are. Like Ramirez, Bregman walks more than he strikes out, making him a tremendous asset in OBP leagues. His O-Swing rate (the percentage of pitches he swings at outside the zone) decreased six percent from 2017 to 2018, and he reduced his swinging-strike rate (SwStr) over two percent. Still just 24, Bregman has room to grow and should be targeted at the end of the first round, rather than waiting until the second round in standard leagues.

The OBP Brothers

Christian Yelich (OF – MIL) and Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL)
Yelich 2018 K-BB%: 10.3%; OBP: .402
Cain 2018 K-BB%: 3.7%; OBP: .395

Everyone knows about the transformation that Yelich took when becoming the NL MVP in 2018. While his walk rate was double digits (10.4%), it’s not quite as elite as the guys above. His plate-discipline metrics also don’t stand out like the others above. Yelich makes his money through his hard-hit rate and line-drive rates (an elite 47.6% and 24.7%, respectively).

Cain’s walk rate was almost a full point better than Yelich’s, and he struck out five percent less often. That’s the good news. Of course, Cain’s batted-ball profile pales in comparison to Yelich’s, but he compensates for that through plate discipline. His O-Swing% and swinging-strike rate are better than Yelich. However, 2018 was an outlier season in terms of plate discipline for Cain, given that his O-Swing rate dropped 5.5% and his SwStr two percent. Expect Cain’s OBP to fall back down to the .360-.370 range.

Bargain Values

Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM)
2018 K-BB%: 11.2%; OBP: .404

Yeah, he still strikes out more than you’d like him to (26%), but you’ll take that OBP any day of the week. In standard leagues, Nimmo is barely inside the top 170, but in OBP leagues, he jumps 50 spots. Hitting leadoff atop a completely revamped order will do wonders for his counting stats. His plate discipline metrics actually took a step backward in 2018, and he still posted that .404 OBP. If he can drop his swinging-strike rate and overall discipline back to his 2017 numbers, you’re looking at top-100 value and a tremendous OF3.

Aaron Hicks (OF – NYY)
2018 K-BB%: 3.6%; OBP: .366

Hicks is everyone’s favorite sleeper — too bad he had to go and get injured already! Hicks has a bad back and may not be ready for Opening Day, which may actually be a good thing for fantasy owners. Since the 2018 season ended, many experts have nabbed him as a sleeper headed into 2019. That hype has resulted in full-blown helium, pushing his ADP to a top-100 pick. With this latest injury news, maybe we can start getting him in the 125 range. His OBP is nearly 120 points above his batting average, which was depressed by an unlucky BABIP. You can read more about that low BABIP here. His plate discipline improved tremendously in 2018, and with a bounce back in BABIP, he could see an OBP approaching .400. If you don’t mind the head games with his injuries, he can go inside the top 100 in OBP leagues, helium be darned.

Ageless Wonders

Shin-Soo Choo (OF – TEX)
2018 K-BB%: 9.7%; OBP: .377

Like a fine wine, the Choo Choo Train gets better with age. Choo has consistently improved his walk rate throughout his career, and last year’s OBP was his highest since 2013. Barely going inside the top 200, you can make a case for him to move up three rounds in OBP leagues. I do have one caveat, however. While his plate discipline is above average compared to the rest of the league, he did see a bump in O-Swing% and SwStr%. At age 36, his plate discipline may be eroding. At the range he is going at, he is well worth that risk.

Nick Markakis (OF – ATL)
2018 K-BB%: 1.1%; OBP: .366

Markakis had a career year in 2018, and he re-signed with the Braves to push them further in the playoffs. RosterResource currently has him hitting fifth in a star-studded lineup, so you can bank on more RBIs in addition to that fantastic OBP. His .366 OBP was in the top 30 in all of baseball and only slightly above his career .358 clip. His plate-discipline profile is even better than the next guy on this list, which is saying something. Even more importantly, he has shown consistency over his long career, giving him a safe floor as a fourth or fifth outfielder in terms of ADP. He potentially could be an OF3 in OBP leagues if the Braves are committed to him as the everyday right fielder and don’t take pity on Adam Duvall.

Ben Zobrist (2B/OF – CHC)
2018 K-BB%: 0.9%; OBP: .378

Speaking of an ageless vet, Zobrist is at the top of the OBP charts year after year — when he is healthy, that is. Zobrist’s OBP climbed 70 points in 2018 as a result of better health. While you may think that is an outlier, he posted a .386 OBP in 2016, proving that he is an on-base machine. His 5.5% SwStr rate is elite, and his Z-Contact % (percentage of times you make contact with a strike) is just as good at 92.1. While you aren’t drafting Zobrist in a mixed league, he could provide great value at the end of an NL-only OBP/points league.

On a side note, hopefully there’s not that many people you’re talking to about the pros and cons of fantasy baseball. You don’t want to be too nerdy.

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.

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