Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers: Week 15

Welcome to the All-Star break edition of the fantasy baseball risers and fallers article. Last week, I covered three hitters on the rise and three hitters likely to regress in the second half. This week I’ll cover seven pitchers, four of whom have been on fire and three with a more ominous second-half outlook. With less than three months remaining, it’s more important than ever to make the right moves going forward. Let’s get into it, starting with the risers.

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Risers

Zack Greinke (SP – ARI)
Greinke has two wins, a 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts over his last three outings. Home run rates are up across the board this year and yet, despite his diminished velocity, Greinke continues to suppress the long ball. His impressive 0.89 home run per nine innings (HR/9) is the lowest rate he’s allowed since 2015. Oh, and his 3.2% walk rate would be the lowest of his career. Try to look past his 7.97 K/9 because his strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%) is 20%, which is better than Clayton Kershaw and Aaron Nola.

While the baseline for pitching ratios is on the rise, Greinke has perfected his craft while averaging under 90 mph on his fastball. His offspeed and breaking pitches have performed superbly, allowing his low-velocity fastball to thrive. But his curveball is his best pitch, and he can throw it at varying speeds. Batters have managed a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of -11 against it. I’d be hard-pressed to find a more successful curve in the game today. With pitch velocity and home runs on the rise, Greinke continues to go about his business while posting ace-like numbers. Going forward, I’m confident in him continuing to be a top-15 starting pitcher in this environment.

Shane Bieber (SP – CLE)
Bieber has a 1.69 ERA with a 0.70 WHIP and 25 strikeouts over his last three starts. He’s been fantastic most of the season. The only change I’ve seen is in his pitch mix. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more secondaries, especially his slider. It’s allowed Bieber to increase swings outside the zone, which has improved his strikeout rate. In addition, his crazy-high .356 BABIP from last season has normalized to a more reasonable .277. His expected batting average (xBA), courtesy of Baseball Savant, is .244. That’s 30 points higher than his actual BA allowed, so it’s difficult to pinpoint where his true BABIP lies. Based on the batted-ball data, I’d suspect a BABIP closer to .300 or .310.

While he’s feeling the home run surge just like many pitchers, Bieber’s been able to suppress long balls over the last five starts, giving up just one over that span. Given his great slider and improved curveball, it’s safe to say that I’m a Belieber. Pairing his current strikeout rate (31.5%) with elite command has me buying into Bieber going forward.

Sonny Gray (SP – CIN)
Going into the All-Star break, Gray had one of the best starts of his career against the Brewers. He went eight shutout innings, striking out 12 batters while allowing five baserunners. He’s been much better this year with a 3.59 ERA after a disastrous 2018 season with the Yankees. He credits pitching coach Derek Johnson, whom he had as a pitching coach back in his college days at Vanderbilt.

While he hasn’t made mechanical adjustments, Gray is sporting the highest strikeout rate of his career (27.8%) and his highest ground-ball rate since 2014. He’s always limited home runs, but increasing the number of batters set down via the strikeout has taken Gray to another level. He’s currently tied for 12th among qualified starters in terms of expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).

Gray has what it takes to keep this up. With four plus-pitches, per FanGraphs’ Pitch Value, his curveball has been key in terms of inducing ground balls at a 61% clip. His slider has been a put-away pitch with a 46.4% strikeout rate thanks to an increase in horizontal movement, and he mixes in a good changeup to pair with the fastball. Given the depth of his arsenal and renewed confidence, I’m buying high on Gray going forward.

John Means (SP – BAL)
Means is not going to blow hitters away with his velocity, but he’s managed a 2.50 ERA on the season and just a 1.85 ERA over his last seven starts. The ERA estimators are not as optimistic in regards to his suppressed ERA, so there’s something he’s doing that is not captured in those equations. His SIERA is 4.67 and his xFIP is 5.14, so why should we trust him going forward?

Well, his changeup is fantastic. He throws it at 80.6 mph, which is over 11 mph slower than his fastball. Typically, the velocity differential between a fastball and changeup is between six and 10 mph, so that’s a huge boost for Means. Below is a graph showing the horizontal release points for all of his pitches this year.

You can see that his four-seamer and changeup have similar horizontal release points. If hitters can’t see whether or not he’s throwing his fastball or his changeup, they have to deal with an 11-mph velocity differential. That’s very difficult. It doesn’t matter that he can’t throw 95+ mph; he’s utilizing different velocity bands to succeed. In addition, changeups suppress BABIP and wOBA, so Means can continue to have an above-average ERA going forward.

Fallers

Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)
Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in the game, but like many pitchers this year, he has a home run problem. After giving up 28 home runs last season, Verlander has already allowed 26 long balls and is on pace to give up an insane 45 this year. Twelve of those home runs have come in the last five starts, and 16 have come off his four-seam fastball. Part of what makes Verlander great is his ability to pitch up in the zone and get strikeouts. He’s not afraid to challenge hitters. While he’s still getting plenty of whiffs, previous warning-track fly outs are now becoming home runs. 

Looking at Verlander’s spray chart of all of his hits allowed this season, we see many “just enough” home runs. His home park (Minute Maid Park) doesn’t do him any favors with the short Crawford Boxes in left field. While his barrel per home run rate (BRL/HR) is high at 1.0, I don’t know if that will regress. The ball has less drag, his home park allows cheap home runs, and July and August historically have the highest home run rates league-wide. Trust Verlander for elite strikeouts, but know there will be the occasional multi-homer outings that will hurt your ratios in head-to-head leagues.

Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY)
Tanaka typically gives up a bunch of home runs. In 2017, the last time we saw an elevated home run rate, he surrendered 1.77 home runs per nine innings (HR/9). This year, he’s down to 1.37 HR/9. So, why does Tanaka have an 8.31 ERA over his last three starts? Let’s take a look at his split-finger usage this year compared to last season and how his ERA and strikeout rate have changed.

Why is Tanaka throwing his best pitch less often? Below is a table showing the results of his split-finger this season compared to his career.

 
He’s clearly lost the feel for this pitch based on the effectiveness, or lack thereof. Without a successful split-finger, Tanaka will need to rely heavily on his slider since his fastball serves up home runs at an alarming rate. I’d expect his home run rate to continue to rise along with his ERA in the second half. I’m not buying Tanaka in the second half.

Zach Eflin (SP – PHI)
Over Eflin’s last three starts, his ERA is a cringing 9.64. Did you really expect him to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA all year? Probably not. Eflin’s strikeout rate has taken a step back, as his swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) is down nearly one percent. He will continue to limit walks with an elevated first-pitch strike rate, but he pitches to contact more than he seeks whiffs. Unfortunately, his K-BB% is 13.3, which is essentially league-average. I don’t always trust in-season projections, but all the major systems peg his ERA between 4.64 and 4.91 going forward. That’s right: not one of the projection systems is favorable for Eflin. He lacks a put-away pitch and pitches in a hitter-friendly home park, so it’s hard to see Eflin remain better than league-average going forward. I still believe in him for the future and have seen improvements in his four-seam fastball. He just doesn’t possess the upside I’m looking for in the second half of 2019.

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Max Freeze is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.