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As we head into the 2019 preseason, fantasy football fans are starting to prepare for their respective drafts. Most fantasy players spend their time searching for that next breakout player, which is great, but you can’t forget to look at the other side of the equation. Just like we have breakouts every year, we’re also bound to have busts. These players are just as important to research as the breakouts because no one wants one of their top picks sitting on their bench all year. Today, I’m going to discuss three running backs who represent the biggest bust potential.
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Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): ADP RB5
Perennial Pro Bowler Le’Veon Bell broke the hearts of millions of fantasy owners last year when he elected to sit out for the entire season. Things did not end well for him in Pittsburgh, which led to him signing with the New York Jets this offseason. Bell has now gone from one of the league’s top offenses to a team with a second-year quarterback and a brand new head coach who is known for his slow-paced offenses.
My biggest concern for Bell is that he will not be seeing anything near the volume he got in Pittsburgh. The Jets have three running backs behind Bell who have all shown flashes of success in the NFL. While I don’t expect Ty Montgomery, Bilal Powell, or Elijah McGuire to play a ton, they should play enough to diminish Bell’s value as a first-round pick. This does not sound like a successful recipe for a running back who was known for his insane volume share with the up-tempo Steelers. Unless Bell breaks his trend of low touchdown counts, I don’t see him living up to his current ADP.
Derrick Henry (TEN): ADP RB18
It seems like Derrick Henry might be 2019’s most divisive player going in the first four rounds. He finished the 2018 season with 1,059 yards and 12 touchdowns, which sounds great, right? Wrong.
If you look closer you’ll see that 585 of those yards came in the final four games of the season. That came out to over 55% of his production in just four games, which is simply unsustainable. In the 12 games prior, he never exceeded 58 yards and was mostly unstartable.
What makes Henry even less appealing is his lack of usage in the passing game. In 2018, Henry only saw 18 targets, reeling in 15 of those for 99 yards. Veteran running back Dion Lewis is still there taking all the passing down work from him while also demanding a portion of the carries. All of this adds up to a situation I want nothing to do with. Henry looks a lot more likely to be a touchdown-dependent back rather than a true breakout candidate in 2019.
Sony Michel (NE): ADP RB23
Second-year Patriots running back, Sony Michel, had himself a fairly impressive rookie season, finishing with 931 yards and six touchdowns. Those are some good numbers for a rookie running back, but it may be very difficult for him to repeat that success in 2019 for a number of reasons.
First off, the injury concerns are real for Michel. He came into his rookie year with knee issues and eventually hurt his knee mid-season forcing him to miss three games. He then went on to have a procedure on that knee during the offseason.
Secondly, Michel was basically non-existent in the passing game last year. He only saw 11 targets all season and finished with a measly seven receptions. In today’s NFL, a running back needs to be capable of catching passes if he’s going to be featured on a weekly basis.
With James White and Rex Burkhead already there combined with the addition of rookie Damien Harris, Michel is in real danger of losing a large portion of his workload — a workload that was already pretty minimal. Michel only played on 36% of the Patriots’ snaps last year. It would be near impossible for him to give good returns on his ADP with such a small workload.
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Eli Berkovits is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eli, check out his archive and follow him @pttf_eli.
