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What is ADP + Using it to Win Your Fantasy Football League

What is ADP + Using it to Win Your Fantasy Football League

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The most hardcore fantasy gamers have been researching and preparing since free agency. For the majority of people, early August is about when more casual players start to get involved. And there’s nothing wrong with that. For the fantasy football veterans out there, you can probably skip this article as you already know everything in it. For the more novice crowd, this will serve as a good primer on how ADP should factor into your draft strategy.

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What Is ADP?
ADP stands for Average Draft Position, which is exactly what it sounds like — the average position in which a player is drafted across a (presumably) very large sample of drafts. With our ADP page, you have the option to not only isolate ADP from an individual site but to select from a number of other sources as well.

Why Do I Need to Know ADP?
It is essential to your preparation to know when players are being drafted. ADP represents what the majority of fantasy owners are doing. Not every league is the same and not everyone is going to follow ADPs exactly, but you can safely project that your fellow fantasy owners will be drafting players around where they are supposed to be drafted. This information allows you to predict what players will likely be available at your pick in each round.

The deeper into the draft you go, the less sticky ADP becomes. If you pick at 1.04, you can predict with 100% certainty that one of Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Alvin Kamara will be there. If you pick at 1.09, you know those four guys will not be there, but you can be reasonably confident that you can get Joe Mixon or Le’Veon Bell.

Given the positional requirements of fantasy football rosters, you need to know whether you are likely to favor a wide receiver or a running back with a specific pick. To do that, you need to know what players will be available. ADP allows you to prepare for each pick before your draft even starts.

How Can I Use ADP?
On a very basic level, you use ADP to eliminate players you know for sure won’t be there at your pick. Let’s say your third-round pick is 3.06. You can safely and confidently remove about 22-24 players from your projected player pool. In other words, you can prepare as if you already know those players have been drafted and you have no chance at acquiring them. That allows you to narrow down your focus to a smaller group of players.

Continuing on that front, you can use ADP to create a reasonable list of players you want with each pick. Of course, you must always be willing to adapt to the draft room. Your list of players you want for each round will likely include both running backs and wide receivers (and sometimes quarterbacks and tight ends). If the best player on your board ends up being a wideout for the first six rounds, eventually you are going to have to take a lesser overall player to grab another position.

ADP is also crucial in informing you when a player presents tremendous value. Your list of targets for each round should exclusively be players you believe you can get in those rounds. I recently had this happen to me in a mock draft, so it will serve as a good example here.

Say you have Derrick Henry on your list of targets for your third-round pick. You end up going in a different direction because there was someone you liked better. Then, somehow, Henry is still there at your fourth-round pick.

You didn’t have Henry on your list of targets for the fourth round because you rightfully assumed if you did not take him in the third round, you would not be able to get him in the fourth round. Since ADP led you to put Henry on your list of third-round targets, you know that his presence as an available player in the fourth round, especially if it’s the back half of the fourth round, is an incredible value. A player you were targeting in an earlier round will always be a superior option to the players you are targeting in later rounds.

Using ADP in Tandem with Your Rankings
This is perhaps the most important concept to understand. Your personal rankings will likely deviate from ADP. They may deviate significantly.

There are situations where ADP may dictate that you take a player you prefer less in order to secure two players you want. This is more likely to occur later in drafts. Here is an example.

Let’s say you really believe in Larry Fitzgerald this year. You have him ranked very high, above multiple WRs with higher ADPs than him. It is your sixth-round pick and Fitz is your highest-ranked player.

You also like Dante Pettis, but you definitely like Fitz more. Even though you may have Fitz ranked ahead of Pettis, you know that Fitz has an eighth-round ADP while Pettis has a sixth-round ADP. If you take Fitz now, you are unlikely to get Pettis. Instead, you take your lower-ranked wide receiver in Pettis because, using your knowledge of Fitz’s ADP, you know there is a substantially greater chance Fitz is there for you in the seventh round compared to Pettis.

Instead of simply drafting the best players on your board, you can use ADP in tandem with your rankings to maximize the talent on your team as you perceive it. You want to draft as many of your highest ranked players as you can. By using ADP and understanding what other owners are most likely to do, you can intentionally draft your players out of order to better your odds of securing both.

Final Thoughts
Make sure you stay up to date with the current ADPs. It is early August. Training camp has just begun. We haven’t seen any preseason games yet (the Hall of Fame game does not count). ADPs are fickle.

All it takes is for a player to have one highlight-reel play or one impressive drive to spike an ADP. All it takes is for a projected starter to not be on the field with the ones in a preseason game to send his ADP plummeting. ADPs can and will fluctuate throughout the month of August.

Once the third week of preseason games are concluded, ADP typically settles down into what it will be for the remainder of the preseason. Stay vigilant and don’t get caught with outdated information. ADP is a tool in your arsenal. Use it effectively to thrive in your drafts. Good luck this season!

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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.

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