Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 9.
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As much as I would like to take a bow for my call on David Montgomery from last week’s value column, I missed on literally every other call from that article. Montgomery’s game, however, was enough for me to call it a success. I’m hoping to hit on a few more this week, let’s get started.
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Quarterbacks
Mitch Trubisky (CHI): $6,500 at PHI
I know, Trubisky has been a dumpster fire this season, but so has the Eagles’ pass defense. They rank 21st with 256 pass yards given up per game (via NFL.com.) One major part of Trubisky’s game that is missing from last year is his running ability. The Eagles get decent pressure on opposing QBs with 21 sacks on the season (ranked 14th), so I would expect Trubisky to use his legs more than he has all season, giving him a solid floor.
Running Backs
Jaylen Samuels (PIT): $5,000 vs. IND
Check the injury reports, but it looks like both James Conner and Benny Snell Jr. will miss this game, leaving Samuels as the lead back. Volume alone at Samuels’ price will make him a viable option, and his pass-catching ability gives him a decent floor. The Colts rank 24th in DVOA versus the run and 18th against pass-catching running backs.
Devin Singletary (BUF): $6,100 vs. WAS
Eventually, the Bills will have to realize that Singletary is the better player over old man Frank Gore. Don’t get me wrong, what Gore is doing at this point in his career is nothing short of amazing, but he should be playing the secondary role, not the more efficient Singletary. The Redskins defense hasn’t been terrible, but Singletary should have no problems racking up yards, even on limited touches, and he might find his way to paydirt.
Wide Receivers
Anthony Miller (CHI): $5,100 at PHI
Miller has now had three straight games over 50 yards and is starting to become a bigger part of this offense after a slow start to 2019. As I mentioned earlier, this Eagles secondary is beatable, and if you’re looking for a cheap low-owned tournament stack, Trubisky with Miller is a good way to jam in some of those high-priced running backs.
Diontae Johnson (PIT): $5,000 vs. IND
Johnson and quarterback Mason Rudolph have had a great connection whenever they have been on the field together. Johnson had the best game of his young career Monday night going for five receptions 84 yards and a TD — I’d expect a similar stat line in this game versus a beatable Colts secondary.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (PHI): $5,000 vs. CHI
There aren’t a lot of value options at tight end this week, but if you’re paying down at the position, Goedert has an excellent chance to meet value as any at $5,000. He has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and has outplayed his teammate Zach Ertz in his last three.
Defense
Carolina Panthers: $4,000 vs. TEN
I went with the Panthers as my value defense last week, and it backfired as the 49ers dominated every aspect of that game. Good news. The Titans are not the 49ers. The Panthers still rank near the top of the NFL in adjusted sack rate and should have no problems getting to quarterback Ryan Tannehill in this game. Expect three-to-four sacks and at least one turnover.
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