It is NBA Wednesday! Welcome in everybody. We have a week full of moderately sized slates, and tonight we hit the perfect size (in my opinion) with a seven-gamer. I want to take a higher-level view of the slate before getting into individual players, so let’s do that.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel 
Spots To Targets
Lakers (vs. Warriors)
The league average team fantasy points per game is right around 228 depending on what scoring system you use. The Warriors have given up less than that just twice in their 11 games. They have given up four totals over 260, and five above 250. The Lakers have been above 240 in six of their ten games, so there is a very high probability of them having a 250+ fantasy point game here, and Anthony Davis might miss this game.
Clippers (vs. Rockets)
The Rockets grade out as one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year, allowing 246 fantasy points per game with totals as high as 287. The Clippers are a strong offensive team when their main guys are all in the lineup, and this game over/under is the second highest they have seen this year.
Celtics (vs. Wizards)
Boston has scored near 240 fantasy points per game, and the Wizards have given up about that many as well. Strong offensive teams have really torched the Wizards (Houston scored 298, the Wolves scored 275, and the Spurs put up 260), so the Celtics could be in for a huge game here. They also have a more limited distribution of production with Gordon Hayward newly on the shelf.
It is NBA Wednesday! Welcome in everybody. We have a week full of moderately sized slates, and tonight we hit the perfect size (in my opinion) with a seven-gamer. I want to take a higher-level view of the slate before getting into individual players, so let’s do that.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Spots To Targets
Lakers (vs. Warriors)
The league average team fantasy points per game is right around 228 depending on what scoring system you use. The Warriors have given up less than that just twice in their 11 games. They have given up four totals over 260, and five above 250. The Lakers have been above 240 in six of their ten games, so there is a very high probability of them having a 250+ fantasy point game here, and Anthony Davis might miss this game.
Clippers (vs. Rockets)
The Rockets grade out as one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year, allowing 246 fantasy points per game with totals as high as 287. The Clippers are a strong offensive team when their main guys are all in the lineup, and this game over/under is the second highest they have seen this year.
Celtics (vs. Wizards)
Boston has scored near 240 fantasy points per game, and the Wizards have given up about that many as well. Strong offensive teams have really torched the Wizards (Houston scored 298, the Wolves scored 275, and the Spurs put up 260), so the Celtics could be in for a huge game here. They also have a more limited distribution of production with Gordon Hayward newly on the shelf.
Grizzlies @ Hornets
Two bad defensive teams in this game. The Hornets have allowed 230+ fantasy points in nine of their ten games, and have allowed over 250 four times. The somewhat strange thing is that they actually check in below average in terms of pace, so teams are not getting a ton of possessions on them, they are just being very successful with the possessions they have. The Grizzlies do play at a fast pace (sixth in the league), and allow a high fantasy point per minute rate (fourth in the league). There should be a lot of fantasy points to go around in this one.
Guards
Russell Westbrook (PG – HOU): $9,900 vs. Clippers
Face it, you like playing guys a little bit more when their game is on ESPN. Is that reason enough to play Westbrook tonight? Of course not! This game has a high over/under, currently sitting at 233.5. However, it is not all that high for the Rockets purposes, as they have already seen three games this year with totals over 238, and the lowest they have seen is 228. The reason to play Westbrook is the price tag. If you played Westy every game this year at $9,900, he would have paid off that price five times and really smashed it three times. He would have only really disappointed once, and a few less than dominant games recently has his price the lowest it has been all year on Fanduel. Buying low on a stud player gives you a tremendous edge. Westbrook’s price has been as high as $10,900 this year, and I would imagine it will have averaged out to be $10,400-$10,600 when all is said and done, so this is a discount to take advantage of.
Kemba Walker (PG – BOS): $9,000 vs. Wizards
We talked about how great of a spot this is for the Celtics above, and the best bet for fantasy points on this team right now is Kemba. Gordon Hayward had a 16% share of the Celtics fantasy points before the injury, and that share was largely absorbed by Walker and Jaylen Brown in their first game without him last night. The Celtics new point guard took 17 shots, 14 three-pointers, scored 29 points, and added five assists, five rebounds, and a block in that game. For the year, he has a 29% usage rate and is averaging 40 Fanduel points per game, the Hayward injury and this great matchup shoot his projection up towards 50, which gives us a lot of confidence in using $9,000 on Kemba tonight.
Fred VanVleet (SG – TOR): $7,500 @ Trail Blazers
In two games without Kyle Lowry, VanVleet has played 39 and 45 minutes. He scored 49 and 34 Fanduel points in those games, and has an 18% share of the Raptors fantasy points in those games. The Blazers have allowed 10 fantasy points above their opponent’s averages this year, so the Raptors are in a very nice spot here to boot. VanVleet’s price is rising with his increased productivity, but the data suggests that $7,500 is still not quite enough for his current role and performance in this offense. Shooting guard can be a tough position to fill on Fanduel, and that seems to be true tonight with the outrageous price on James Harden. VanVleet is a very strong play.
Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $7,200 @ Hornets
The Grizzlies set up very nicely against the Hornets, as we talked about at the beginning of the post. The tough part is that the Grizzlies have really spread out their fantasy production this year, with nobody having more than a 15% share of their fantasy points. Morant has been the closest thing to a consistent producer, taking 12 or more shots in all but one of his games (averaging 14.7), scoring 18 points, and handing out five assists per game. His price has also fallen $700 in the last week and sits at the lowest point it has been in his last seven games. I am not sure Morant has a 50+ point ceiling, but I feel pretty good about him returning solid value tonight against this exploitable Hornets defense.
Isaiah Thomas (PG – WAS): $5,500 @ Celtics
IT2 played a season-high 29 minutes on Friday, suggesting that he is a full go now. For the year he has scored 1.19 fantasy points per minute and has paid off this salary with less than 25 minutes in four of his six games. You would have expected Thomas’s price to shoot up after seeing the minutes boost, but it has not. He remains at $5,500. As a stats-focused kinda guy, I do not find myself buying into narratives, but if there is any player in the league that might bring it a little harder against his former team, it’s this guy. He was quoted this week saying he was going to “go for 50 on them” – so yeah you can go ahead and project him for a few extra shot attempts tonight. He is one of the best value plays on the board.
Forwards
LeBron James (SF – LAL): $11,800 vs. Warriors
This price is too steep if Anthony Davis plays tonight, but if he does not, LeBron should be one of the most popular plays on the board. James has not lost much production with AD in the lineup, shooting 19 times a game while scoring 24 points and chipping in 11 assists and eight rebounds. With Davis out, you would expect his shot attempts and rebounds to come up, and his ceiling would go through the roof. The Warriors are an obvious blowout risk, but the Lakers are far from an elite team when you take AD out of the picture. The floor is sky-high regardless, and there is a real potential for 80+ if things go LeBron’s way.
Kawhi Leonard (SF – LAC): $10,300 vs. Rockets
Awesome spot for Kawhi here against the Rockets in a game with a high total and a tight spread. Leonard has been awesome in this young season with his new team, sporting a 38% usage rate while shooting 21 times per game. He is averaging 27 points, 8.5 rebounds, and six assists. There is the possibility of Paul George playing tonight and taking some of that usage, in which case I would be a bit more hesitant on Kawhi, but if George sits out one more game I think Kawhi is my favorite cash play on the entire slate.
Jaylen Brown (SF – BOS): $7,200 vs. Wizards
The usage for Brown took a big jump last night as the Celtics played without Gordon Hayward. Brown took 16 shots, scored 25 points, and added 11 rebounds. He has been a much more effective fantasy player this year than in the past, and he is looking like the Celtics second option on offense for the short term. The price is sky high (it came up $800 after last night), and the possibility of Enes Kanter playing more minutes tonight gives a little bit of downside to this play, but this is still a strong option at small forward.
Centers
Montrezl Harrell (C – LAC): $8,000 vs. Rockets:
This is a bit of a restrictive price on Harrell, but he brings a huge ceiling in this matchup. He has played 30 or more minutes in six of his ten games this year, and has averaged well over 40 fantasy points in those games. We should see 30+ again for Harrell here as this game is projected to be very competitive. The floor is a bit lower than we would like at this high price tag, but the ceiling is massive. There is not a ton to love at center as of right now, so Harrell makes a lot of sense as one guy with all the indicators pointing in his direction.
Cody Zeller (C – CHA): $6,100 vs. Grizzlies:
Zeller has been a much better fantasy player this year with Kemba Walker in Boston. He has averaged a strong 1.08 fantasy points per minute and has recorded double-doubles in five of his nine games. This is a great game environment, and the price just seems a bit too low on Zeller. He has shown a 50 point ceiling to go with a strong floor. With all of the great expensive plays at guard and forward tonight, it makes sense to save some money at center tonight, and Zeller is my favorite play at the position as things stand currently.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.
