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We are going through each of the ten standard categories and exploring what a draft looks like when we punt each category. In this post, we will focus on punting the runs category. This one will be interesting and tough, and I do not suspect that I will be super happy with how it turns out. You can find each of our articles in the series here.
League Settings
I set up this league to have 20 starting slots (10 hitters, 10 pitchers) and two bench spots. Here are the full details:
Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF x3, UTIL x2, P x10
Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV
My Pick: 7th
2020 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid
Strategy
- Use FantasyPros Zeile projections and Microsoft Excel to make customer pre-ranks that factor in which category I am punting.
- Runs will be a bit correlated with batting average and steals, so I am not going to be able to completely punt this category. I will focus on getting a lot of power hitters, and I want to lead the league in projected home runs.
- I also want to get a top-three pitching staff with a competitive two or three relievers
Results
1.7 Juan Soto (OF – WAS)
The runs punt put Soto above Betts in my rankings, as runs are probably Soto’s worst category. He should be near the league leaders in homers and runs batted in, and he should post a very, very strong batting average as well. I probably would have taken Gerrit Cole or Jacob deGrom here and crossed my fingers for Soto to fall to round two, but they had both been taken already – weird draft to start!
2.6 Max Scherzer (SP – WAS)
I wanted a top tier pitcher for this team where I am intentionally sacrificing a lot of offense, so Scherzer was my guy in round two. I think the shortened season works in his favor, and I have no questions about the quality of innings he will give me while he’s on the mound.
3.7 Javier Baez (SS – CHC)
Baez was the top hitter on my board here and gives me a good supply of homers, runs, and batting average with not being a zero in steals. He is not a super exciting guy to pick, but at age 27 he could still be one of the best hitters in fantasy this year.
4.6 Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC)
I am a big Nationals and Cubs fan apparently. Rizzo was the top guy on my board here as he fits very nicely with the runs punt. He will give me a number of homers and RBI with a strong batting average and he fills the first base position which I wanted to take care of early given the shallowness of the position.
5.7 Keston Hiura (2B – MIL)
Hiura will likely hit clean-up for the Brewers this year, which makes him stronger in RBI at the expense of runs scored and maybe steals. That fits nicely with my strategy here, and his upside is obviously outrageous. He could be one of the best hitters in the league this year, and I loved the draft price here.
6.6 Eloy Jimenez (OF – CHW)
More upside here with another middle of the lineup bopper. Jimenez is an exciting player to roster as he really showed what he was capable of late in the year last year. He could easily put up a season with a 40 homer pace and a .290 batting average if he can develop a bit.
7.7 Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
I am way heavy on offense, which is really not what I planned, but these values are too good to pass up on. I feel very, very strong in homers, RBI, and batting average right now while being okay in steals. It’s time for a starting pitcher run.
8.6 Corey Kluber (SP – TEX)
Yeah, I am starting my pitching staff off with two pitchers that probably have their best years behind them, but I think Kluber can bounce-back and be an ace-like pitcher this year for the Rangers, making him a great value here at 8.6.
9.7 Carlos Carrasco (SP – CLE)
Another bounce-back candidate as I try to catch up with the field in pitching. Carrasco should be good for the start of the year and there is no real reason to think he will not be an effective starter this season.
10.6 Lance Lynn (SP – TEX)
Why can’t Lynn replicate his 2019? He struck out a ton of hitters without walking a ton while throwing 200+ innings. I understand that there are risk given his track record before last year, but in the 10th round, this is a great value.
11.7 Michael Brantley (OF – HOU)
The batting average is just too good to pass up on here, and Brantley should be a boon to my RBI total as well in that Astros lineup once again.
12.6 David Price (SP – LAD)
I think Price should be a really solid starter this year on that stacked Dodgers team. There are always injury concerns, but with the shortened season I am not as worried about those. I’ll take the swath of strikeouts and wins to add to my staff.
13.7 Jorge Polanco (SS – MIN)
More counting stats and batting average here, as Polanco should benefit a lot from the ridiculous lineup the Twins will roll out every day. He might hit near the end of the lineup, which would hurt his runs total – but that does not bother me too much here.
14.6 Justin Turner (3B – LAD)
One of my favorite values in 2020 is Justin Turner, who has just continued to put up great hitting lines even as he ages out of his prime. I needed a third baseman badly and Turner should raise my batting average while giving me a good supply of RBI.
15.7 Hansel Robles (RP – LAA)
I needed my first closer here, and Robles should have the full job at the beginning of the year on a team that should be very competitive. I think I may have waited too long on this, however, as there was a couple closer runs already leaving me behind in the pack.
16.6 Khris Davis (DH – OAK)
Cheap homers and RBI’s, I love Khris Davis this year and am drafting him in most of my leagues. I believe the down year was due to injury and not skill depletion, so I am all-in here.
17.7 Omar Narvaez (C – MIL)
This is as early as I’ll ever draft a catcher, but Narvaez gives you a rare batting average boost from a catcher, so I figured I’d take a dive.
18.6 Dylan Bundy (SP – LAA)
Bundy was looking like a total ace in spring training and is a very popular breakout candidate this year. I like him a lot in an Angels uniform and think he could really scorch this price tag.
19.7 Mychal Givens (RP – BAL)
Desperation closer here. The only real good thing to say about Givens is his job security, so I’ll take the floor of saves here.
20.6 Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL)
Cain is a strong bat for my bench and could provide a nice amount of steals with a solid batting average.
Results
This went pretty well per the projections. I actually ended up 4th in projected runs, which was kind of surprising. I am 5th in homers, 2nd in RBI, 12th in steals, and 2nd in batting average. Steals is one of the tougher categories to find on waivers, so I might need to make a trade or two if this was a real season. My pitching staff came in nicely in ERA and WHIP but is lacking in the volume stats of wins, saves, and strikeouts. Makes sense since I drafted just six starters and did not exactly draft many innings eaters.
All-in-all, I think runs is a weird one to punt. It is correlated with steals, so you are naturally giving up a bit of two categories when you punt it. That is not advisable at all, so I would not advise this strategy.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.