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Game-By-Game Projections: Aaron Jones (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Michael Moore | @DLF_Moore | Featured Writer
Jun 3, 2020

Aaron Jones is likely to experience some significant touchdown regression in 2020.

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Aaron Jones has a tough act to follow after recording 1,558 total yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Here are game-by-game projections to see how the Green Bay running back fares in 2020.

You can find our entire 2020 Player Game-By-Game Projection series here.

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Week 1: Green Bay at Minnesota
Jones torched Minnesota twice last season, topping 100 yards in each contest. He should do that again, as the Vikings’ defense hasn’t improved this offseason. Rookie A.J. Dillon isn’t ready to start siphoning off carries … yet. 

Predicted Stat Line: 22 carries, 121 yards, one touchdown, two receptions, 11 yards (21.2 fantasy points)

Week 2: Green Bay vs. Detroit
Jones leads the team in carries but doesn’t see 20 attempts. Detroit also always manages to make Jones look average, which means he fails to break off any huge gains. He does add some points in the passing game, though, to make up for it. 

Predicted Stat Line: 18 carries, 75 yards, zero touchdowns, three receptions, 36 yards (14.1 fantasy points)

Week 3: Green Bay at New Orleans
Not surprisingly, teams tend to get into shootouts with the Saints, which leads to their defense seeing fewer rushing attempts than most other teams. But Jones, again, makes up for limited running volume through the air and manages to salvage a decent fantasy day. 

Predicted Stat Line: 10 carries, 42 yards, zero touchdowns, seven receptions, 70 yards (18.2 fantasy points)

Week 4: Green Bay vs. Atlanta
The Falcons gave up 100 yards rushing in 10 of their games last year, and 2020 should be no different. Jones will rack up quite the fantasy line on the ground and in the air while finding the end zone more than once.

Predicted Stat Line: 19 carries, 105 yards, two touchdowns, four receptions, 28 yards (29.3 fantasy points) 

Week 5: BYE
Jones and the Packers get an early breather following Week 4’s Monday Night Football showcase.

Week 6: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
The first dud of the year for Jones. The Bucs allowed 90 or more rushing yards just four times last year, so it’s not surprising that Jones can’t get it going. It’s also possible the Packers fall behind the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers and have to air it out for most of the game. 

Predicted Stat Line: 13 carries, 49 yards, no touchdowns, one reception, four yards (6.3 fantasy points)

Week 7: Green Bay at Houston
Houston gave up more than 100 rushing yards in eight of their last nine games (including the playoffs) last season, so Jones should eat. It’ll also be one of the few times he sees more than 20 carries in a game all season. 

Predicted Stat Line: 23 carries, 154 yards, one touchdown, four catches, 32 yards (28.6 fantasy points)

Week 8: Green Bay vs. Minnesota
Jones has a productive day on the ground, but not fantasy-wise, as he fails to score. He doesn’t add much through the air either since the young Packers’ offense around Jones starts to find its footing. Halfway through the season, Dillon is coming on. 

Predicted Stat Line: 19 carries, 95 yards, zero touchdowns, two receptions, three yards (11.8 yards)

Week 9: Green Bay at San Francisco
Like the last game, Jones is efficient when he runs the ball but doesn’t see it nearly enough. The 49ers defense is just as relentless as it was in the NFC Championship Game, so the Packers abandon the run after falling behind. We also see just a little more of Dillon in garbage time. 

Predicted Stat Line: 10 carries, 45 yards, zero touchdowns, four receptions, 20 yards (10.5 fantasy points)

Week 10: Green Bay vs. Jacksonville
Let’s do the math. Jacksonville is Vegas’ pick to have the worst record in 2020. Jacksonville allowed more than 200 yards rushing four times in 2019. This won’t end well for the Jaguars and should lead to a good day for Jones, who was in a bit of a slump. 

Predicted Stat Line: 25 carries, 155 yards, one touchdown, one reception, six yards (23.1 fantasy points)

Week 11: Green Bay at Indianapolis
The Colts already had a decent run defense last year, allowing the seventh-fewest yards on the ground. They’ve since added DeForest Buckner, who made his presence known to Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game last year. It all adds up to Jones’ worst game of the season. 

Predicted Stat Line: 12 carries, 34 yards, zero touchdowns, zero receptions, zero yards (3.4 fantasy points)

Week 12: Green Bay vs. Chicago
The Bears, who kept a lid on Jones last year, do so again. He does manage to save his fantasy day with one score, but Dillon’s rising presence — especially in the passing game — is cutting into Jones’ production. 

Predicted Stat Line: 13 carries, 45 yards, one touchdown, zero receptions, zero yards (10.5 fantasy points)

Week 13: Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
The slump continues. The Eagles not only allowed the third-least rush attempts and yards but bottled up Jones last year for 21 yards. He does slightly better and scores a receiving touchdown, but that’s it. 

Predicted Stat Line: 10 carries, 29 yards, zero touchdowns, five receptions, 30 yards, one touchdown (16.9 fantasy points)

Week 14: Green Bay at Detroit
Jones breaks out after the Packers give him the most carries he’s seen all season. It makes sense since Green Bay would rather avoid the revamped Detroit secondary and just run the defense into the ground. The 100-yard game is Jones’ first since Week 10. 

Predicted Stat Line: 26 carries, 104 yards, one touchdown, three receptions, 28 yards (22.2 fantasy points)

Week 15: Green Bay vs. Carolina
This line might have looked different in 2019, when the Panthers gave up 150 rushing yards seven times, but not in 2020. The new-look defense limits Jones to just 70 yards and nothing in the passing game. It’s one of his worst fantasy games all season. 

Predicted Stat Line: 14 carries, 70 yards, zero touchdowns, two receptions, two yards (9.2 fantasy points)

Week 16: Green Bay vs. Tennessee
The Titans bottle up Jones despite seeing 20-plus carries for just the fifth time in the 2020 season. With no touchdowns and nothing going in the passing game, Jones has another fantasy dud and is shaping up to be a disappointment. 

Predicted Stat Line: 22 carries, 65 yards, zero touchdowns, four receptions, 12 yards (11.7 fantasy points)

Week 17: Green Bay at Chicago
Mercifully, Aaron Jones’ 2020 season comes to an end after another subpar fantasy day. The Bears have never allowed Jones to average more than four yards per carry in their six previous meetings, and this one is no different. The finale also doesn’t bode well for Jones’ chances of keeping the starting job in 2021. 

Predicted Stat Line: 15 carries, 53 yards, zero touchdowns, zero receptions, zero yards (5.3 fantasy points)

Final 2020 Projections

Rush Att. Rush Yards Rush TDs Receptions Receiving Yards Receiving TDs Fantasy Pts
271 1,241 7 42 282 1 242.3

 
Despite the Packers drafting Dillon in the second round, Jones should still be the lead back in 2020. He showed no signs of slowing down in 2019, despite a career-high 236 carries, and I project him to take on even more this season. His projected 271 carries would be near the top of the leaderboard for any running back in any year. Furthermore, I anticipate him maintaining the 4.5 yards per carry he averaged last year, which would mean over 1,200 yards on the ground. 

Now the bad news. Dillon will take snaps away from Jones, whether it’s goal-line carries or the passing game. Most would also expect a regression to the mean anyway when it came to Jones’ 2019 touchdown tally. His 19 total scores tied Christian McCaffrey for the NFL lead last year and were six more than he managed in his previous two seasons combined. Cutting his 2019 total by more than half may seem steep, but it’s a very likely scenario. It also means much less fantasy scoring for Jones in 2020.

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Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, follow him @DLF_Moore.

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