Game-By-Game Projections: Cooper Kupp (2020 Fantasy Football)
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Below are the game-by-game projections for Cooper Kupp. These projections are a combination of my yearly projection models, Vegas win totals, and defensive matchups. My wide receiver projections as a whole expect a bounce-back for the position compared to some down numbers in 2019. Let’s take a look at his per-game expectations in 2020.
Week 1: vs Dallas Cowboys
Starting out hot as the Rams get used to their new backfield and rely on the passing game, Kupp delivers on early-season hopes for those who drafted him.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (15.8 fantasy points)
Week 2: at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ poor secondary gets shredded by Kupp underneath as star defensive cornerback acquisition Darius Slay focuses his attention on Robert Woods. He easily finds a way to get open underneath.
Predicted stat line: 8 reception, 106 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (20.6 fantasy points)
Week 3: at Buffalo Bills
The Bills were the fifth best defense against wide receivers in 2019 and there’s little reason to expect much change. They have one of the best defenses in the league, and it shows. The Rams rely on their tight ends and ground game but still come up short.
Predicted stat line: 3 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (5.2 fantasy points)
Week 4: vs New York Giants
From fifth toughest to fifth easiest, it’s a welcome matchup for Kupp owners. Jared Goff has also had a home-field tendency to pass more than he does on the road, so the combination of the two equates to a nice game for Kupp.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 76 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (16.6 fantasy points)
Week 5: at Washington Redskins
Rookie Chase Young makes his presence felt, getting to Goff on multiple occasions. The result is quick passes where Kupp thrives but he doesn’t reach the end zone. The game script leaves the rest up to the running game.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 72 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (9.7 fantasy points)
Week 6: at San Francisco 49ers
In a tough matchup against a rock solid 49ers defense, the passing game doesn’t stand a chance. The 49ers’ front four might be the best in the league, and they disrupt the cadence of Goff’s quick release rhythm.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (5.4 fantasy points)
Week 7: vs Chicago Bears
Three straight weeks of under 10 fantasy points have owners floundering. The Bears’ third-best defense against wideouts only got fortified with even more defensive pieces with additions like Robert Quinn. With the Bears’ low scoring offense, expect the two sides to put up a modest scoring total in this one.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (6.8 fantasy points)
Week 8: at Miami Dolphins
What a relief of a matchup for Kupp. Newly acquired Byron Jones spends most of his time on Woods as Kupp gobbles up targets against the rest of this secondary. The Dolphins attempted to shore up many pieces on the defensive front, but they were one of the worst last year so there would need to be big changes to slow down Kupp.
Predicted stat line: 7 receptions, 88 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (18.3 fantasy points)
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: vs Seattle Seahawks
The division rival Seahawks are always a fun matchup. I believe Quinton Dunbar might track Kupp in this one given his new position with the team, and he shows well in doing so. The result is a very average fantasy day for sir Cooper.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 77 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (10.7 fantasy points)
Week 11: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playing catchup all game long against last year’s most generous fantasy matchup is a dream come true for fantasy lineups. Both Woods and Kupp thrive as the Rams are forced to pass heavy.
Predicted stat line: 9 receptions, 135 receiving yards, 2 receiving TD (30 fantasy points)
Week 12: vs San Francisco 49ers
Same 49ers gives the same kind of problems they did in week 6. Kupp slightly under performs yet again because of it.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 67 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (9.2 fantasy points)
Week 13: at Arizona Cardinals
Kupp gets back on track with a nice matchup against the Cardinals’ up-tempo offense, leading to a higher play total. They were rather friendly to receivers to begin with, and another year in Kingsbury’s air raid offense could lead to some extra scoring for both sides.
Predicted stat line: 7 reception, 95 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (19 fantasy points)
Week 14: vs New England Patriots
Nothing should strike fear into your hearts like seeing your pass catchers have the Patriots on schedule. As fantasy playoffs get underway, this is a devastating spot for Kupp. Bill Belichick and company have a tendency to shut down certain aspects of the game, and the strength of the Rams are the passing game. As such, his defensive focus will go there.
Predicted stat line: 3 receptions, 46 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (6.1 fantasy points)
Week 15: vs New York Jets
Kupp’s production week-to-week has been a roller coaster as of late, and hits another peak here with the Jets defense. This particular matchup will be even more enticing if Jamal Adams is not on the Jets roster to work in the middle of the field. A nice bounce-back week.
Predicted stat line: 7 receptions, 94 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (18.9 fantasy points)
Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks
Once again, what goes up comes back down as he faces off against the Seahawks with their 12th Man. Seattle’s heavy run concept is clock draining and limits the plays in a game especially when they possess the lead. Kupp’s production suffers as a result.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (7.6 fantasy points)
Week 17: vs Arizona Cardinals
We’re back in business in a week that is likely only relevant to DFS players. The Rams are vying to sneak into a playoff spot and go pass-heavy to achieve that goal. A nice finish to a solid year.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 91 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (18.1 fantasy points)
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There is some reasonable fear with the latter half of 2019 becoming a standard reality for 2020. The Rams shifted from 11 to 12 personnel, which takes away Kupp’s money position in the slot. They needed two-tight-end formations to overcome some offensive line holes that they did little to address in the off-season. Kupp’s snap percentage in weeks 1-12 was at 89%. From weeks 13-17, it dropped to 63%. This is a very alarming trend.
Brandin Cooks created space underneath for Woods and Kupp to thrive. The proof is in the aDOT of Cooks and Kupp at 13.6 to 7.5 respectively. This offense as a whole is shifting. Kupp will remain a high-efficiency, YAC-dependent, and red-zone-threat receiver, but he is highly susceptible to the Rams’ scheme going forward, making his projections harder to predict than most.
Things to look for as the season starts will be his targets per game and snap percentage. If these seem high or low to his 2019 game pace, they will be a strong indicator to buy, hold, or sell for the remainder of the season.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.