Game-By-Game Projections: Odell Beckham Jr. (2020 Fantasy Football)
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Below are the game-by-game projections for Odell Beckham Jr. These projections are a combination of my yearly projection models, Vegas win totals, and defensive matchups. My wide receiver projections as a whole expect a bounce-back for the position compared to some down numbers in 2019. Let’s take a look at Beckham’s per-game expectations in 2020.
Week 1: at Baltimore Ravens
Beckham’s first matchup comes against a tough Ravens pass defense that was 12th-best against wide receivers in 2019. Combined with Baltimore’s run-heavy game script, it leaves little room for passing volume.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (7.7 fantasy points)
Week 2: vs Cincinnati Bengals
OBJ reminds the world he’s still a top-tier wide receiver and posts 16.4 fantasy points, including a touchdown against the division rival Bengals. He and Baker Mayfield start to form the connection many hoped for last season.
Predicted stat line: 5 reception, 79 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (16.4 fantasy points)
Week 3: vs Washington Redskins
Washington gave up the 12th-most fantasy points to receivers in 2019. After Beckham gets his touchdown in the first half, the Browns’ powerful rushing attack takes over.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (14.9 fantasy points)
Week 4: at Dallas Cowboys
Even though the Browns lose, the positive takeaways from this game are monumental. Their fortified offensive line, especially at the tackle position, gives Mayfield adequate time to find the open receiver against Dallas’ powerful front four. He does so often with Beckham in this contest, as the Cowboys are fresh off of losing star cornerback Byron Jones. This is the turning point for many fantasy fans, as they realize Beckham can once again be a top-12 option at the position.
Predicted stat line: 7 receptions, 90 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (18.5 fantasy points)
Week 5: vs Indianapolis Colts
Beckham keeps rolling in Week 5 against the Colts’ subpar fantasy defense. He eclipses 100 yards for the first time this season, but it won’t be the last.
Predicted stat line: 7 receptions, 106 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (14.1 fantasy points)
Week 6: at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ defense takes yet another step toward becoming one of the best in the league in 2020. This effect is fully felt by the Browns, who struggle to get much going. The passing attack only finds short routes and dump-offs as effective options.
Predicted stat line: 3 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (5.3 fantasy points)
Week 7: at Cincinnati Bengals
Meeting the Bengals twice in six weeks leads to nearly identical results. The Bengals have another rough year ahead of them, and the Browns capitalize.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (17.2 fantasy points)
Week 8: vs Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have one of the thinnest and youngest secondaries in the league, and I’m not sure that rookie Damon Arnette or 31-year-old Prince Amukamara fills the role of ace cornerback right away to slow down receivers like Beckham.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (17 fantasy points)
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: vs Houston Texans
The Texans gave up 15 or more fantasy points to a team’s number one option a multitude of times last year. Receivers became solid starts when you saw them matched up against Houston. Even though he doesn’t find the end zone, Beckham nearly hits 100 yards receiving.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 96 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (12.6 fantasy points)
Week 11: vs Philadelphia Eagles
Not many would argue the thought that the Eagles might have the worst secondary in the league. They’re a tantalizing matchup for a player like Beckham, who torches them for his best game of the year with 115 yards and two scores.
Predicted stat line: 7 receptions, 115 receiving yards, 2 receiving TD (27 fantasy points)
Week 12: at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars did surprisingly well against receivers last year despite trading Jalen Ramsey. Their secondary isn’t that great, but the game script will relinquish the majority of Cleveland’s touches to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 71 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (9.1 fantasy points)
Week 13: at Tennessee Titans
After falling behind in the first half, the Browns play catch-up, and that’s where Beckham benefits. The early-season chemistry with Mayfield pays dividends and continues through the tough matchups.
Predicted stat line: 5 reception, 70 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (15.5 fantasy points)
Week 14: vs Baltimore Ravens
A tough divisional matchup against the Ravens once again leaves Beckham on the outside looking in for opportunities. The combination of pressure, coverage, and a clock-draining offense leads to his worst game of the season.
Predicted stat line: 3 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (4.7 fantasy points)
Week 15: at New York Giants
Going straight from famine to feast, Beckham gets a juicy matchup against his former team. After giving up the fifth-most points to the position in 2019, the Giants didn’t address this weakness enough this offseason to expect much different. He easily puts up over 20 points.
Predicted stat line: 8 receptions, 124 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (22.4 fantasy points)
Week 16: at New York Jets
This projection will likely change if the Jets somehow retain Jamal Adams, who reportedly wants out of the Big Apple. Regardless, it’s a nice matchup for Beckham against a team that allowed 20 wide receiver touchdowns last season.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD (14.8 fantasy points)
Week 17: vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Most fantasy managers luckily forego having to see the Steelers’ defense twice during their season. In what is a meaningless game for most fantasy leagues, Beckham hits a mild seven points in the final week.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 receiving TD (7.4 fantasy points)
|Opponent||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Receiving TDs||Fantasy Points|
There is a pile of strong evidence to believe that Beckham returns to top-10 status in 2020. Mayfield should be under duress less often behind the Browns’ improved offensive line. Beckham enters year two with his new team — which has correlated to a bump in production for wideouts — and reportedly played through injuries last season. Since entering the league in 2014, he has been one of the best in points per game.
Anyone counting Beckham out will be surprised when he surges back up the rankings. Even including a down year, Beckham has been elite on a per-game basis. Don’t be fooled into thinking otherwise this season.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.