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DraftKings PGA Advice: 3M Open (2020)

Jul 21, 2020

The newly crowned world number one, Jon Rahm (22/1), dominated the field last week at the Memorial Tournament to win his fourth career PGA Tour title. In some of the most challenging conditions that Muirfield Village has ever presented, Rahm finished nine under par to beat out Ryan Palmer by three strokes. The margin of victory seemed a bit closer than it should have been, as Rahm was assessed a controversial two-stroke penalty after his round was completed. Only nine players ended up finishing the tournament under par for the week.

Scoring should come easier this week as the PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open. This marks the second installment of the event, as it was promoted from the PGA Champions Tour in 2019. The reigning champion, Matthew Wolff, won his first career PGA title last year after shooting an impressive final score of 21-under. With plenty of wind in the forecast, we may not see a score that low this week. That said, you can expect to see plenty more birdies at TPC Twin Cities.

After a major-like field last week at the Memorial Tournament, the quality of competition tapers off tremendously at the 3M Open. Dustin Johnson ($11,500), Brooks Koepka ($11,200), Tony Finau ($10,900), and Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500), are the highest priced golfers on DraftKings. Fleetwood, the talented Englishman, will be making his first start since missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.

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Course Preview

The 3M Open is played at TPC Twin Cities in northern Minneapolis. The gettable course design measures at 7,468 yards and will play as a Par 71. Golfers will see wide fairways with lots of water hazards in play. We can expect to see higher GIR numbers this week with longer than average Bentgrass greens. The three Par 5s are all above average in length, so Par-4 scoring will be factored in a bit more this week.

As mentioned above, this should once again be a birdie-fest, and we can expect many low scores. However, keep your eyes posted on the weather leading up to Thursday, as the winds are expected to pick up on the weekend and could create havoc on the course. Ball-striking will be crucial with plenty of water throughout the course, so players must hit plenty of fairways to avoid a big number.  As per usual, targeting golfers with above-average approach play will be key.

Key Stats

  • Birdie-or-better
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Ball-Striking
  • Performance on Bentgrass Greens
  • Par-4 Scoring

Recommended Plays

Brooks Koepka ($11,200)
Koepka is coming off another disappointing tournament at the Memorial this past week with a 62nd place finish. However, he will be going from one of the most challenging courses on Tour to one of the easiest. This field is also considerably weaker, and his high price tag still warrants attention. According to Fantasy National, Koepka ranks seventh in strokes gained: total on Bentgrass greens, where scoring is easy relative to par (last 36 rounds). Expect a motivated Koepka to come out firing darts at TPC Twin Cities.

Paul Casey ($10,100)
One of the most consistent ball-strikers in the game, Casey should go well this week. He has one of the best combinations of driving accuracy and distance in the entire PGA, and that has helped him rank eighth in strokes gained: off-the-tee in 2020. His iron game is also elite, as he ranks ninth in approach this season. If Casey can somehow find a hot putter this week, he has a very legitimate shot at winning this tournament, as it is a weak field.

Russell Henley ($9,200)
Henley is an extremely accurate driver, and he also has some of the best irons in the PGA. Henley ranks 10th in strokes gained: approach, and this should bode well for his chances at TPC Twin Cities. He is coming off of a T7 finish at the Workday Charity Open even after having an atrocious putting week. As an in-form golfer with the ideal skill set to attack this course, he is worthy of this price.

Harris English ($9,100)
English has been one of the most underrated golfers over the past couple of years. In 14 events this season, English already has posted nine top-25s and five top-10s. These are impressive numbers for the 30-year-old who has been on Tour for 10 years now. English sneakily ranks 13th in strokes gained: tee-to-green in 2020, a stat to always focus on when considering your player pool. He is coming off a solid T12 showing at the Memorial in some fierce conditions.

Sam Burns ($8,500)
Burns finished T7 here last year after shooting rounds of 66-66-72-64. While it’s hard to get excited after only one high finish at this course, Burns has been playing solid golf of late. He has finishes of T24, T30, and T17, in his last three events. As someone who plays very long off the tee and has an above-average putter, Burns should once again play well at a course where he has found prior success.

Patrick Rodgers ($8,200)
Like Burns, Rodgers has a solid game off-the-tee, and he’s one of the best putters in the entire PGA. He is also coming off a solid T18 showing at the Memorial Tournament in one of the best fields of the year. Rodgers now has a chance in better conditions and weaker competition to take down his first career PGA Tour title. He tends to perform very well in birdie fests, and he nearly won the RSM Classic, where he lost in a playoff after finishing at 19-under for the week.

Richy Werenski  ($7,400)
Werenski rates out exceptionally well on Bentgrass surfaces where scoring is easy relative to par. In the last 36 rounds, according to Fantasy National, Werenski ranks third in strokes gained: total, seventh in ball-striking, fourth in approach, and ninth in putting. His recent form has also been great, as Werenski has made five straight cuts and has two top-25s. He seems to offer plenty of upside at this price.

Sam Ryder ($7,300)
One of the streakiest golfers on Tour, Ryder has made just one more cut than he has missed this season. However, he is coming off an impressive T7 finish at the Workday Charity Open. His ball-striking numbers for the week were excellent. He rates out high in my custom model this week due to his propensity to score well on easy courses that feature Bentgrass greens. He is worth a flier at this price.

Chase Seiffert ($7,000)
At a low price of 7K, Seiffert has a strong chance of making the cut for your lineups. In 15 events this season, Seiffert has made 10 cuts and three top-25s to his name. He is coming off an impressive fourth-place finish at the Workday Charity Open after shooting rounds of 68-69-70-67. As another golfer who is above average with his approach and putting game, Seiffert should go well in Minnesota this week.

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Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  — to learn more.

Nic Turner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.

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