2019’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
2020 hasn’t exactly been a normal year in sports, or in any other respect. You don’t need me to tell you the impact Covid has had, because you’re living it too. Let’s just say we’re all looking forward to football season, in whatever form it takes, way more than normal. Fortunately for us, fantasy draft season gives us an excuse to dive deep into football months before it actually starts.
Success in fantasy drafts (and let’s be real, an unconscionable number of mock drafts) starts with a good set of rankings. The internet is filled with people telling you who to draft, and we’re here to tell you who to listen to. We had 160 experts qualify for our 2019 draft accuracy competition by submitting rankings at QB, RB, WR and TE. You can find the details on how we assess the accuracy of rankings in our full methodology. The short version is this: For each expert, we judge how closely they ranked each player to his actual final rank in terms of season-total fantasy points. We limit this to a pool of fantasy-relevant players, so while each player is weighted equally, the positions with more relevant players (WR and RB) have a bigger impact than those with fewer (QB and TE). While our experts submit rankings in all three scoring categories (Standard, PPR and Half PPR), we used Half PPR rankings for this analysis.
Top 10 Draft Experts in 2019
- A huge congratulations is due to Sean Koerner from The Action Network. His is the most important name to know if you care about fantasy football. He adds this win to one of the most impressive resumes in the industry – he was one of our top five experts in draft accuracy both 2016 and 2017, and was our #1 expert for in-season accuracy both of those years. The pool of experts that can have one great year is deep, but extremely few have been able to show the kind of consistency that Sean has.
- Key to Koerner’s success were his top-5 accuracy scores at the two most important positions – WR and RB. No other expert was even able to make the top 10 for both positions at the same time. Some of his great calls included Danny Amendola (+23 spots vs. ECR), Terry McLaurin (+18) and Raheem Mostert (+19), as well as wisely advising people to stay away from Marquise Goodwin (-13 vs ECR), Geronimo Allison (-11), Will Fuller (-10) and Gus Edwards (-9).
- Our #2 expert, Pat Fitzmaurice of The Football Girl was the only other expert to finish in the top 10 at two different positions – QB and RB. Two of his great calls included ranking Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray in the top 10 QBs when the consensus didn’t.
- The rest of our top five had excellent finishes at a position: Ken Zalis from Pressbox was our #3 overall expert with a #2 finish at RB, Patrick Thorman from Establish the Run was #4 overall with a #2 finish at QB, and Ryan Hodge from FantasyLabs was #5 overall and was our most accurate WR expert.
- Dylan Chappine from Wolf Sports was knocking on the door of the top 10 at #12 overall, including finishing #1 at TE. Anthony Amico from FTN was our #1 QB expert, and Scott Smith from RotoViz was #1 at RB.
- While kickers, defenses and individual defensive players don’t impact our overall accuracy rankings, we still evaluate rankings for those individual categories. Rich Piazza from Fantasy Shed was our top expert for kickers. Anthony Amico from FTN was our most accurate ranker for defenses (in addition to his QB win), and The FFGhost from Dynasty League Football was our top IDP expert.
We know who was the most accurate for 2019, but will that really help with 2020 fantasy drafts? If just one year of good rankings doesn’t give you the confidence to listen to an expert the next year, we’ve got you covered. FantasyPros has been tracking expert accuracy since 2010, and our current methodology has been in place since 2015. This allows us to identify which experts have the consistency to stay accurate year-over-year. We use a rolling 3-year window to identify the experts with the best long-term accuracy. This is who you should have the most confidence in going forward.
You can see the full list here of all 91 experts who qualified for the multi-year accuracy competition, including their 3-year ranks at each individual position. Congratulations is also due to our top IDP expert for 2017-2019, The IDP Guru Ryan Sitzmann.