DFS Pricing Exploitation – Week 8 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.
Josh Allen (BUF) vs NE $8,200 (-$600)
New England has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so the hefty price drop is reasonable. The additional return of Zack Moss adds another player for this offense to utilize especially in the red zone. A low vegas total of only 44 also suggests the lack of fireworks in this one. Look for better options at a similar price. I specifically like plays like Rodgers and Burrow this week, which brings us to our next point.
Joe Burrow (CIN) vs TEN $7,600 (+$500)
Burrow has now thrown for at least 300 yards in five of seven games this year, a sensational start for the rookie. The Bengals’ second-highest plays per game always make them an interesting game for fantasy purposes. AJ Green not being complete dust is a major positive, and the ascension of Tee Higgins to pair with slot king Tyler Boyd gives them a very capable passing attack. A high-scoring implied total of 54.5 is an additional reason to fire him up.
Kareem Hunt (CLE) vs LV $8,200 (+$1,100)
Nick Chubb remains out as Kareem Hunt saw 90%-plus of the running back work now that he’s healthy. It should be more of the same in week 8 and even more so now that wide receiver Odell Beckham is out for the remainder of the season. While he’s likely to see more stacked boxes as a result, the even larger uptick in volume should be enough to offset it. The Raiders have allowed the third-highest points to running backs as extra icing on the cake in another 54.5 implied total matchup. Fire Hunt up with confidence.
Devin Singletary (BUF) vs NE $5,700 (-$500)
Zack Moss has returned, and with it departs Devin Singletary’s fantasy relevance. He has already been a tough play with practically zero touchdown upside as a result of Josh Allen, and this only makes matters worse. He was outperformed by Moss in both efficiency and yardage against the Jets last week as proof of the shift. A slow, low-scoring matchup against the Patriots doesn’t help matters either. Steer clear.
A.J. Brown (TEN) at CIN $7,500 (+$700)
Brown has returned to stud status ever since being healthy, scoring at least 17 points in three games straight. He is right at the price I’d possibly be comfortable with, but there are better options at cost on the table in my opinion. The Bengals are a poor defense all-around, and with a positive game-script, I’m expecting this to be more of a Derrick Henry than AJ Brown type of game. He’s certainly not a poor option, just others could provide more bang for your buck.
Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs NE $7,100 (-$400)
Apparently, this Buffalo-New England matchup is tilting Bills assets down for the week, as all three major positional plays have dropped at least $400 in price. The Jets game has left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth as it should. As I said under Allen’s section, there are just likely better options at cost this week.
George Kittle (SF) $7,700 at SEA (+$600)
Kittle is a top-tier option this week and still well worth what it will cost you. The Seahawks defense is the third-highest pass-funnel defense and seems to be in a shootout in nearly every game they play. While it shows they are the fourth-toughest against tight ends, they have faced the likes of Dan Arnold, Ryan Izzo, and Kyle Rudolph. Easy players to eliminate for a defense. Jamaal Adams versus Kittle will be the highlight of the game, and with the amount of pre-snap motion and YAC schemes Kyle Shanahan uses, they will find ways to get Kittle into space.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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