DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Lakers at Heat (10/6)
Down 2-0, the Heat rallied in Game 3 to earn the team’s first win of the Finals and make it 2-1 heading into tonight’s Game 4. Adebayo is a true game-time decision and Dragic doubtful tonight, so the Heat will try to conjure up some of the magic they had in Game 3 to even this series.
If you’re new to DraftKings showdown, there are a few simple rules for roster construction. Lineups consist of six players, including one Captain that have to fall within the salary cap of $50K. The Captain can be any player on the slate, and he scores 1.5x his normal score. The catch is that he also costs 1.5x his normal salary. The remaining five positions don’t receive bonuses, but they don’t have a premium cost either. As usual, we’ll break down the top Captain picks, core players to target at lower salaries, and dart throw options best reserved for tournaments. Let’s get to it!
LeBron James (PG/SF – LAL): $12,000/$18,000
James has been huge against Miami, averaging 55.1 DK points while posting 27.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists across three games. He committed eight turnovers in the Game 3 loss and was visibly frustrated at the end of the game, walking off the court early. The frustration could boil over into Game 4 as motivation, when James will look to bounce back and lead his team to a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $11,400/$17,100
Davis dominated Games 1-2 with averages of 55.3 DK points, though he struggled in Game 3. In the loss, AD provided 15 points, five rebounds, three assists and two steals while committing five turnovers and four fouls and attempting just nine shots. The uncharacteristic performance will likely be a motivator for Davis in Game 4, when the Lakers will try to go up 3-1 in the Finals.
Jimmy Butler (SG/SF – MIA): $9,600/$14,400
Down 2-0 and missing Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic, Jimmy Buckets put Miami on his back in the Game 3 victory, going ballistic with 40 points, 13 assists, 11 rebounds, and four combined blocks/steals for a ridiculous 83.3 DK points. If Adebayo and/or Dragic are back for Game 4, Butler’s usage will likely take a hit, though he’s tough to fade from lineups right now. If one or both are out or limited, Butler could be in line for another huge performance to keep his team afloat in the series.
Rajon Rondo (PG – LAL): $7,200/$10,800
Over his last two, Rondo has averaged 29.9 DK points across 27.0 minutes per contest. He’s not a particularly effective scorer, though he put up 24.5 DK points in Game 3 while scoring just four points thanks to his ability to stuff the stat sheet.
Jae Crowder (PF – MIA): $6,800/$10,200
Crowder continues to play heavy minutes for Miami (28.7), though he’s been largely neutralized in this series, averaging only 22.0 DK points across three games. His ceiling is capped, though he has a stable floor of 20-25 DK points. Crowder is more of a cash-game play and isn’t recommended for tournaments.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/SF – MIA): $4,800/$7,200
KCP continues to be a fixture on the court for LA, as he’s averaged 30.3 minutes per contest against the Heat in the Finals. He came up small with just 12.8 DK points in Game 3, though he averaged 23.5 through the first two games. He’s a guy you can usually mark down for 20-ish DK points, and at just $4.8K, he’s a nice value option.
Kelly Olynyk (PF/C): $3,200/$4,800
In the absence of Bam Adebayo, Olynyk has been huge, as he averaged 34.3 DK points in Games 2-3 thanks to some stellar play. With Adebayo slated to return for Game 4, Olynyk will move back to the bench, though he was just shy of 20 DK points in Game 1 with Adebayo on the court, and he could return sneaky value at such a low price point, especially if Bam is limited in his first game back. If Adebayo ends up being ruled out, Olynyk is a must-play and a fine Captain selection, at the low, low price of $4.8K.
Salary Savers/Dart Throws
Bam Adebayo (MIA): $9,400
Adebayo is still a GTD tonight, and even if he plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100%. It may seem tough to fade Adebayo after he averaged 48.3 DK points against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, but at this salary is tough to swallow given his health. The injury will likely drive down his ownership on the slate, and Adebayo should be considered in tournaments if he indeed gives it a go.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF – MIA): $5,000
Robinson is as up-and-down as they come, as he’s provided DK point totals of 5.0, 18.0, 31.3 across the first three games of the Finals. When he’s hitting his shot, he can be a huge value on for Showdown contests, though his performance from night-to-night is hard to predict.
Kyle Kuzma (SF/PF – LAL): $4,600
Kuz scored 24.3 DK points in Sunday’s loss, marking the first time since Game 5 against Houston that the forward had notched at least 20 DK points. He’s averaged fewer than 25 minutes per contest in the postseason, while providing just 17.0 DK points in the process, but he does have four games of at least 20 DK points in the playoffs and makes an interesting – if highly risky – pivot in tournaments.
Kendrick Nunn (PG/SG – MIA): $4,200
After two strong performances in Games 1-2, Nunn fell back to earth in Game 3 with just 6.25 DK points. Through three games in the Finals, he’s averaged better than 20 minutes and has plenty of scoring upside, though he’s got a rock-bottom floor. If Dragic/Adebayo remain out, Nunn is worth a shot here.
Dwight Howard (C – LAL): $3,800
The big man has become the Lakers’ permanent starter at center, though that role has only led to 13.5 DK points across 15.7 minutes over three games against Miami in the Finals. Howard finished the Nuggets series with games of 30.8 and 23.3, so we’ve seen his ceiling. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option if he has a big game.
Alex Caruso (PG/SG): $3,600
Caruso has only averaged 15.8 DK points in the Finals, but he’s still seeing nearly 24 minutes of court time as a regular part of the Lakers’ rotation. He’s provided seven games of at least 20 DK points this postseason and is worth a look in tournaments.
Markieff Morris (PF/C): $2,800
Morris posted 31.5 DK points in Game 3 behind 19 points, six rebounds, and two assists. This was the first time he saw at least 20 minutes since Game 5 against Houston, so his nightly role is far from secure. Morris has shown the ability to get hot from the field, and he makes a fine play for the penny-pinchers among us.
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