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FanDuel PGA Lineup Advice: Bermuda Championship (2020)

Oct 27, 2020

We’ve had great golf and been treated to elite fields in no-cut events for the last two weeks. The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda this week, but without their star players. Defending champion Brendon Todd is the only golfer among the world’s 50 best that is scheduled to appear.

Regardless of who is here or who isn’t, there is money to be won on FanDuel so we might as well be the ones to win it. FanDuel has eight golfers priced at $11,000 or above for the Bermuda Championship. FanDuel provides DFS players with a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Brendon Todd is the highest priced golfer at $11,900. Will Zalatoris is right behind him at $11,800. Harold Varner ($11,500), Emiliano Grillo ($11,400), and Maverick McNealy ($11,300) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest priced golfers.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Any golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even the best golfers can miss the cut. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!

Watch the tournament live on Golf Channel with FuboTV >>

Tournament Notes

  • Note: Even though this tournament is played in 2020, it is considered part of the 2021 PGA Season. It is part of the wraparound season (Fall swing). This can get confusing when looking at course history or past events. The years referenced in this article will refer to the actual year the event was played as opposed to the PGA season it was a part of.
  • The Bermuda Championship is played at Port Royal GC in Southampton, Bermuda. It is a par 71 Robert Trent Jones designed-course measures 6,828 yards.
  • 144 golfers are scheduled to tee it up this week with the top-65 (and ties) making the cut and advancing to the weekend.
  • The course hosted the Grand Slam of Golf from 2009 to 2014, in which the four major champions played an off-season competition.
  • There are three par 5s (507, 517, 553 yards).
  • Three of the four Par 3s measure more than 200 yards. The shortest is 148 yards.
  • Six of the 11 Par 4s are under 400 yards. The longest measures 458 yards.
  • Brendon Todd defeated Harry Higgs by four strokes last year. Hank Lebioda, Aaron Wise, Brian Gay, and Scottie Scheffler were the other top-five finishers. Scheffler and Todd set the single-round course record with 62s and Todd’s 24-under par was the 72-hole course record.
  • The cut was 1-under par last year.
  • The greens are Bermuda (of course they are) and tend to play very slow.
  • The fairways are tougher to hit here (54% last year) compared to the normal PGA Tour average (62%).

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. It should be noted that I consider putting but it is weighted lower than the other factors. The best golfers, in terms of stats, for my customized model this week (in ranked order) are Will Zalatoris, Doc Redman, Harold Varner, Emiliano Grillo, Jason Dufner, Luke List, Kristoffer Ventura, Denny McCarthy, Henrik Norlander, and Charley Hoffman.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Will Zalatoris, Kristoffer Ventura, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner, Adam Schenk, Stewart Cink, Emiliano Grillo, Brendon Todd, Charley Hoffman, and Tyler McCumber. Adam Schenk leads the field with 10 straight made cuts on the PGA Tour. Emiliano Grillo (8), Brendon Todd (6), and Beau Hossler (5) are the only other golfers with at least five straight made cuts. Will Zalatoris has made the cut in 19 of his last 20 starts (PGA and Korn Ferry combined). Peter Malnati is the only player coming into this week with back-to-back top-five finishes.

Driving Accuracy
The fairways were much tougher to hit than a normal PGA Tour event. The importance of hitting the fairways were made even more evident by the fact that Brendon Todd won the event. He is one of the most accurate (though short hitters) on Tour. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my driving accuracy model (in ranked order) include Brendon Todd, Henrik Stenson, Ryan Armour, Chris Baker, Henrik Norlander, Brian Stuard, Kyle Stanley, Kramer Hickok, and Doc Redman.

It is always important to score well but being a solid par maker might not be advantageous this week. This event produced tremendous scoring opportunities and low scores last year, so we want to take a look at the golfers in this field that have the most scoring upside. My custom model takes into account birdie or better percentage and scoring average. The golfers who rate as the best scorers this year (in ranked order) include Chesson Hadley, Brendon Todd, Kristoffer Ventura, Doc Redman, Will Gordon, Brandon Hagy, Andrew Putnam, Hank Lebioda, Denny McCarthy, and D.J. Trahan.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know but sports (in particular, DFS golf) oftentimes comes down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. Unfortunately, this is perhaps the worst field you’ll see on the PGA Tour. There is only one golfer among the world’s top-50 players. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Brendon Todd (No. 41), Henrik Stenson (No. 54), Will Zalatoris (No. 59), Rafa Cabrera Bello (No. 78), Doc Redman (No. 85), Max Homa (No. 93), Matt Jones (No. 109), Harold Varner (No. 120), Troy Merritt (No. 140), and Charley Hoffman (No. 141).

Favorite High-Tier Plays

Brendon Todd ($11,900)
He is one of the best putters in the world and very few drive the golf ball more accurately than Todd. He is the defending champ here for a reason. It’s almost unfair what he can do on these slower greens, especially when he is hitting every fairway and giving himself easier birdie looks. This price is much higher than we are used to seeing for Todd, but his lack of length is not a problem at this short course and he certainly won’t be outclassed in this field. His stats might not line up against some others because he has been playing in some of the bigger events during the last few months, but he is a legit threat to go back-to-back here.

Will Zalatoris ($11,800)
Zalatoris has made 19/20 cuts on Korn Ferry and PGA. During that stretch, he has eight top-five finishes and 12 top-10 finishes. In his last four PGA starts, he surprisingly missed the cut at Sanderson Farms but has top-10 finishes in the other three. Five out of four people are bad at math, but Zalatoris is statistically more likely to finish in the top-10 than he is to finish out of it. Now, at this price, we need him to finish better than top-10. However, if you are going to pay this much then you want to know that you have a shot at returning value. Other than Brendon Todd, Zalatoris is most likely to flirt with a win this week.

Harold Varner ($11,500)
He hasn’t been bad with the flat stick but that has kept him from really breaking through. His iron play has been strong the last few months, but he hasn’t been able to parlay that into many high finishes. Though with that being said, he did finish T13 at the Shriners his last time out. In the last 24 rounds played, nobody has gained more strokes than him from tee-to-green. Overall, he is fifth in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds.

Favorite Mid-Tier Plays

Kristoffer Ventura ($10,300)
Four top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts. A total of seven top-25 finishes.  He missed the cut in his last event at the Shriners but had top-10 finishes in two of the three previous events in this young season. Ranks first in this field off-the-tee and 10th in putting over the last 24 rounds played. Overall, he is first in fantasy scoring and third in total strokes gained.

Peter Malnati ($10,200)
He’s made the cut in four of his last five events, which for this field, is really good. He hasn’t just made the cut but he has top-five finishes in his last two (T5 at the Shriners and a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms). Malnati is known more for his flat stick but has also struck his irons well recently.

Adam Schenk ($10,100)
Leads the field with 10 straight made cuts on the PGA Tour. His upside doesn’t appear to be there since his T12 at the Barracuda is his only top-25 finish during this streak. However, we like made cuts and he was doing that better than most prior to the last two weeks when he didn’t play the no-cut events. He is a good ball-striker who has also been putting well the last few tournaments.

Henrik Norlander ($10,600)
He is really good off-the-tee and with his irons. The only question is whether he can make putts. In his last eight starts, he has gained strokes putting only twice but finished T4 at Sanderson Farms and T6 at the Memorial.

Justin Suh ($9,900)
Most people forget that he turned pro around the same time as Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Matthew Wolff. He has started slow but is starting to make up for lost time. He comes into this week with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Shriners and down in the Dominican.

Scott Stallings ($9,400)
He’s been up and down but he can flirt with the leaderboard when he is on. In his last six events, he has three MCs and two top-10 finishes (T6 at Sanderson and T5 at Barracuda). Overall, he has made the cut in 16 of his last 23 events. He also was T6 at the Travelers back in June. Last year, he was T18 here at the Bermuda.

Favorite Low-Tier Plays

Max Homa ($8,600)
After starting the calendar year as one of the hottest golfers on Tour, he hit a snag with the Covid layoff and hasn’t ever regained his form outside of a third at the 3M Open. That has been his only finish inside the top 40. In fact, he’s missed eight cuts since the restart. This is not a statistical or research-driven play. This is a “bet on long-term form against a bad field” play. His stretch of four straight top-15 finishes against tough fields and his win in 2019 at the Wells Fargo tells me what he’s capable of. This is a similar price tag we’ve seen on him in elite fields, so we are getting a discount this week.

David Hearn ($8,400)
Lots of missed cuts for Hearn since his T8 here last year. However, there are signs of life for Hearn that lead me to think he could replicate last year’s result. Yes, he missed his last cut at Sanderson Farms but was T33 in the Dominican Republic and T14 at the Safeway before that. He is a very accurate driver of the golf ball, which is important at this course.

Ryan Armour ($8,300)
His form isn’t very good right now, but it wasn’t good last year coming into Bermuda, either. He had missed the cut in three of his four starts prior to his T8 at last year’s Bermuda. He is not a long hitter, but he is very accurate (third in my accuracy model). He is not necessarily a safe pick because of his form, but he tends to show up on leaderboards once in a while. He had top-six finishes this summer at the Rocket Mortgage and the Travelers. He is 14th in the field over the last 24 rounds in strokes gained putting. If he can continue hitting the ball in the fairway and make putts, he could have a nice tournament.

View free betting picks for the Bermuda Championship at BettingPros >>

Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  — to learn more.

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can send him questions and follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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