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FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge Advice: Week 4

by Rob Searles | @RobBob17 | Featured Writer
Oct 2, 2020

The FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM rolls along as we enter October and Week 4 of the NFL season. If you haven’t participated in the contest yet, here’s a breakdown of how you can win some pretty nifty prizes courtesy of FantasyPros and BetMGM.

Compete against other like-minded football enthusiasts by showing off your fantasy chops by selecting who will go Over or Under their Week 4 projections. If you happen to be among one of the leaders for the week, you’ll be rewarded with cool prizes!

Here is a link to the contest’s FAQ page for additional information.

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Below are my picks for the Week 4 slate.

Drew Brees (QB – NO) @ Detroit – Under 19.5

With Michael Thomas officially being ruled out on Friday afternoon, it’ll be much of the same for the ineffective Saints passing game. Brees needs Alvin Kamara to be his usual game-breaking self in the short passing game in order to have any chance at sniffing the over in Week 4. Outside of a pair of touchdowns, the Emmanuel Sanders signing has been much ado about nothing for New Orleans, with Sanders only averaging four targets per game in Thomas’s absence.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – MIA) vs Seattle – Over 18.7

Speaking of having to keep your foot on the gas. With Russell Wilson – once again – playing at a near MVP level, Chan Gailey’s offensive unit will do their absolute best to keep up with the Seattle juggernaut. Pete Carroll’s defense has been an absolute train wreck, ranking dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed with nearly 1,300 yards surrendered through the first three games. Seattle moves to 4-0, but Fitzpatrick sneaks in plenty of garbage time fireworks in order to hit the over.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) vs Jacksonville – Under 15.2

The former Oklahoma Sooner standout has had plenty of opportunities to get himself going in Zac Taylor’s (Go Big Red) second year as the Bengals’ head coach, ranking eighth in the NFL in rushing attempts through the first three weeks. Unfortunately for Mixon, the production simply hasn’t been there, despite the consistent volume. With Jacksonville ranking in the top half of the league in rushing defense, Mixon will have to wait at least another week before his 2020 breakout takes place.

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) @ San Francisco – Over 14.4

Sanders has been the lone bright spot for the Fly Eagles Fly in a lost season. After missing Week 1 due to injury, Sanders has averaged 119 scrimmage yards and 7.5 targets per game operating as Doug Pederson’s workhorse running back. Going up against a depleted 49ers’ front, Sanders will have plenty of room to operate for the bright lights of Sunday Night Football.

James Robinson (RB – JAX) @ Cincinnati – Over 14.3

With the Bengals having already ruled out nose tackle Geno Atkins for their Week 4 contest against Jacksonville, their basement-dwelling run defense will have their hands full with the latest rookie undrafted free agent running back phenom. J-Rob continues his early-season dominance against the lowly, Atkins-less Cincinnati front four.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) @ Miami – Over 14.7

Is Russell Wilson playing quarterback on Sunday? Check.

Is Tyler Lockett still Wilson’s favorite, most targeted receiver? Check.

Is Miami ranked 26th in defending the pass this season? Check.

This one’s too easy. Hammer the over.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) @ Houston – Under 13.2

Justin Jefferson’s Week 3 introduction to the fantasy community served as an unofficial passing of the guard for Minnesota’s hierarchy in the passing game. Simply put, the former National Champion LSU Tiger is a better talent than the 30-year old Thielen. With Minnesota ranking second-to-last in the NFL in passing volume, my money is on Jefferson to continue to lead this passing attack as the Vikings head to Houston for Week 4 in a battle of 0-3 playoff teams from the previous season.

Odell Beckham Jr (WR – CLE) @ Dallas – Over 11.5

Kevin Stefanski has turned some heads in his first season as the Browns’ head coach with his ball club off to a 2-1 start. Sticking to the same script from his lone season as the Minnesota Vikings’ offensive coordinator, the Browns are leaning heavily on their run game, ranking 30th in the NFL in pass attempts. Despite their offensive preferences, Cleveland will have no choice but to keep the ball in the air as they try to keep up with Kellen Moore’s high-flying Cowboys offense. The Cowboys defense currently ranks 29th in the NFL in defending the pass and Beckham will have plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers in this one.

Marquise Brown (WR – BAL) @ Washington – Under 10.5

Can we finally give it a rest when it comes to having expectations for Hollywood Brown? Outside of his first two games of 2019, Brown has surpassed 50 receiving yards just two times. After yet another dud on Monday Night Football against the World Champion Kansas City Chiefs, it’s high time we take Brown for who he is: a low floor, high-risk fantasy option who happens to be stuck playing in arguably the least desirable offense for wide receivers. Baltimore’s rushing attack has a big day against the Football Team.

Jimmy Graham (TE – CHI) vs Indianapolis – Over 7.1

Big Stick Nick Foles is back leading a high-octane offense loaded with playmakers. With Tarik Cohen and his 90-plus targets over the past two seasons suffering a season-ending ACL injury in Week 3, Graham’s role in the Bears’ passing attack just saw an uptick. After starting the season with seven or more targets in two of the Bears’ first three games, Graham’s role in Chicago’s offense is solidified. Graham secures his fourth touchdown on the year as the Bears have their way with the Colts.

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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, follow him @RobBob17.

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