When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
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- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.com.
Games/Teams to Target
- Las Vegas @ Kansas City (Over/Under 56.5)
- Kansas City Team Total: 34.75
- Las Vegas Team Total: 21.75
- Jacksonville @ Houston (Over/Under 54.0)
- Houston Team Total: 30.0
- Jacksonville Team Total: 24.0
- New York Giants @ Dallas (Over/Under 54.0)
- Dallas Team Total: 31.75
- New York Team Total: 22.25
- Carolina @ Atlanta (Over/Under 53.5)
- Atlanta Team Total: 28.00
- Carolina Team Total: 25.5
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DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB – CAR): $7,100 / Robby Anderson (WR – CAR): $6,200
Based on his NFL career to this point, it may not be surprising to hear that Teddy Bridgewater completed 70% of his passes on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. While Bridgewater is not known to drive the ball down the field, he has enough weapons who can create yardage after the catch to make him a viable fantasy QB in plus matchups.
In Week 4, the former Louisville QB threw for 276 yards and a couple of scores while adding 32 rushing yards and a TD scamper. He managed to put up 27 fantasy points against a defense that has been middle of the road against fantasy QBs, and now he finds himself in a dome matchup against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has one of the most depleted secondaries in the NFL.
The Falcons are allowing the most fantasy points to the QB position, highlighted by 327 yards and four TDs to Aaron Rodgers in Week 4 and 450 passing yards to Dak Prescott in Week 2. To this point in the season, it has been Robby Anderson, not D.J. Moore, who has stepped up as Bridgewater’s go-to wide receiver. Anderson is 10th in the NFL among WRs with 34 targets, and he is sixth at the position in receiving yards with 377 through four games.
Anderson has not scored since Week 1, which is surprising given his high yardage total, big-play ability, and red-zone prowess. He will have a great shot to reach the end zone on Sunday against a Falcons team that continues to suffer injuries on defense. We can bring it back with receiving options on the Falcons. Calvin Ridley ($8,300) could be a low-rostered play after a disappointing performance on Monday night against the Packers in which he failed to record a catch.
Gardner Minshew (QB – JAC): $7,200 / D.J. Chark Jr (WR – JAC): $7,000
In what has been an incredibly high-scoring season, the main slate in Week 5 once again features several games with an over/under north of 50 points. The Jaguars seem to find themselves in many of these games, as they lost many pieces on defense but feature plenty of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.
After a disappointing home showing Thursday night against Miami, Gardner Minshew bounced back at Cincinnati. Against the Bengals, Minshew completed 67% of his passes on his way to 351 passing yards and two scores. The Thursday night game is the only time this season that Minshew failed to record more than 20 FanDuel points.
Both of Minshew’s Week 4 passing TDs went to third-year WR D.J. Chark Jr. After breaking out in his sophomore NFL season, the former LSU Tiger was off to a frustrating start to his 2020 campaign. Minshew’s struggles against Miami could easily be attributed to him missing his number one weapon on the outside. Chark’s return in Week 4 appeared to be just what the doctor ordered, as the pair managed to connect on eight of nine targets for 95 yards and the two scores.
Houston has been gashed on the ground, but this Texans defense just allowed a line of 8-114-1 to similarly talented WR Adam Thielen of the Vikings in Week 4. We can bring back this Jaguars stack with Houston WR Will Fuller V ($6,600), who is always an excellent tournament play. The Texans offense could play inspired after head coach and GM Bill O’Brien was let go early in the week.
Jared Goff (QB – LAR): $7,500 / Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR): $6,000
The Rams offense as a whole was extremely disappointing in their Week 4 win against the New York Giants. Jared Goff completed 25 of his 32 attempts, but the result was only 200 passing yards and just one long TD to Cooper Kupp. Goff has had the most success throwing the ball over the middle so far in 2020.
The Rams have a respectable implied team total of 26.25 points, but the spread for the game is not out of control at 7.5. Therefore, I expect Washington to keep it close enough that the Rams will continue to attack through the air.
Washington allowed TE Mark Andrews to score two TDs in Week 4 after Dallas Goedert recorded eight receptions for 101 yards and a TD in Week 1. After his three-touchdown performance in Week 2, Tyler Higbee has been rather quiet. However, the TE position as a whole has been extremely low-scoring. When a player has a multi-TD game in his range of outcomes, that is not something we want to ignore.
Factor in that he is going up a defense that has already allowed some big performances to the position, and Higbee is a great play. Expect Washington to generate pressure on Goff, which will require him to find his safety valve in Higbee or utilize the TE in the screen game.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
