Monkey Knife Fight Advice: Week 12 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing entrants in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the ‘More or Less’ contests. In these contests, you can choose whether a player will fall above or below totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals, and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at some of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 12. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): 285.5 passing yards
Since most if not all of MonkeyKnifeFight’s ‘More or Less’ contests call for predicting quarterback numbers, the best strategy is often to look for quarterback numbers you have a definitive lean on before assessing the situation for the receivers, tight ends, and/or running backs. For this weekend there is no other quarterback that stands out more than Justin Herbert.
Herbert has been excellent this season but from a real-life and from a fantasy perspective. Yes, he is struggling to get wins, but the close nature of the losses suggest that they are just a Derwin James away from turning those losses into victories.
Back to Herbert, he is averaging 299.9 passing yards per game this season, so you can see why this number had some immediate appeal. Buffalo’s defense has been struggling this season and is no longer the top 10 unit they have been in years past.
Tre’Davious White is still one of the best corners in the game, but he is no longer the lockdown option he was in years past, or he just has not rounded back into that form yet. Levi Wallace has been uneven since his return from injury, and Josh Norman, who is more name than game at this point of his career, is being singled out and targeted by opposing quarterbacks due to his declining play.
Suffice it to say, that even without Austin Ekeler set to return, Herbert looked terrific for this number. Herbert has thrown for 289 or more passing yards in six of his nine contests this season. He is only getting better and may be in a shootout against the Bills. Lock Herbert in for the ‘More’ for Week 12.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): 7.5 receptions
Keenan Allen has been on a tear lately. In normal circumstances (Michael Thomas last year being the other exception) receptions above the seven mark are usually something to balk at and take the ‘Less’ option at MonkeyKnifeFight.
However, Allen has been on fire lately and has displayed ever-improving chemistry with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert has some gunslinger to him thanks to his great arm, but he is also cerebral and understands that Keenan Allen gets open more often than not.
That has led to Allen exploding in his last five contests. In those games, he has seen double-digit targets on four separate occasions and seven targets in the other. He totaled 47 receptions across those contests. Yes, you read that right, 47 receptions. And that was with a two reception dud against the Miami Dolphins lockdown cornerback duo. So that means 45 receptions in those four other contests or 11.25 receptions per contest.
This number would likely be 8.5 or 9.5 at MKF if the Chargers were playing a team other than the Buffalo Bills. Is the 2020 version of Tre’Davious White worth two whole receptions on the number? Probably not.
Allen is playing at an all-time high level and the Chargers are going to be forced to throw. Allen may not put up gaudy receiving yard numbers, but expecting him to see less than 10 targets one contest after he hauled in 16 of his 19 targets (yes against the New York Jets) does not jive with what we had seen on the field.
If we eliminate the Jets and Dolphins games from the five game stretch as anomalies, Allen still had 10 receptions, nine receptions, and nine receptions in the other three contests. Follow the public and take the ‘Less’ option or trust that something special is brewing on the Chargers roster, and hit the ‘More’ for Week 12.
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