Congratulations to everyone who survived their playoff semi-final matchup and made it to the championship round, as making the fantasy Super Bowl in a season like this is no small feat. Hopefully, this column helped you win a week or two and contributed to your success.
For this final kicker guide, I thought I would hand out a few awards, including MVP, Biggest Bust, Comeback Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year.
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MVP
Younghoe Koo (ATL)
Koo proved to be a league-winning asset with nine games of at least ten fantasy points and two games of over 20. As my preseason pick to be the breakout player of the year, it was a joy to watch Koo take advantage of Matt Ryan’s ineptitude in red zone efficiency and lead the league in field goal attempts.
Biggest Bust
Wil Lutz (NO)
There are more than a few candidates for the biggest bust, as no kicker drafted in the top 5 ADP finished in the top five after 15 weeks of play. However, Lutz’s struggles down the stretch of the season cannot be ignored. The usually reliable kicker did not make a field goal in his last three weeks and did not post a double-digit performance after Week 8.
Comeback Player of the Year
Ryan Succop (TB)
Succop made 25 fo 27 field goal attempts and 42 of 45 extra points and enters Week 16 as the No. 7 kicker in fantasy. Not bad for a player who struggled with injuries and inaccuracy in his final season with the Titans last year.
Rookie of the Year
Rodrigo Blankenship (IND)
It was difficult to select this year’s rookie of the year, as Tyler Bass and Rodrigo Blankenship tied in fantasy points per game and both finished as top-5 players. I gave the nod to Hot Rod because he was far more accurate, making 90% of his attempts for the Colts. Both were amazing players and should be top-10 plays in 2021.
Week 15 Stud Performances from Widely-Available Kickers
Cairo Santos (CHI) @ Minnesota: 1% rostership on Yahoo
Santos finished as the top kicker of the week with 18 points against the Bears. Santos has been on fire over the past two weeks, with 28 points against Houston and Minnesota. His K Score this week indicates a negative game script with mostly extra points.
Nick Folk (NE) @ Miami: 3% rostership on Yahoo
Folk made all four of his field-goal tries against the Dolphins, in what turned out to be a low-scoring game between divisional rivals. Although Folk only has three double-digit performances this season, he ranks seventh in fantasy points scored over the past five weeks, ahead of Justin Tucker, Tyler Bass, and Jason Sanders.
Week 15 Dud Performances from Widely-Owned Kickers
Wil Lutz (NO) @ Philadelphia: 93% rostership on Yahoo
Three strikes and you are out for Lutz and his fantasy managers. Lutz has been downright dreadful over the past month of play, with three straight weeks of three or fewer fantasy points. Based on his 93% rostership rate on Yahoo, there are more than a few unhappy fantasy managers who may have lost their semi-final matchup because of Lutz.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 12th in red-zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has an RZ EFF score of 20. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 12 who could be an excellent play Week 16.
Greg Zuerlein (DAL) vs. San Francisco: 40% rostered on Yahoo
I am staying in the fire this week with Zuerlein at home against the Eagles in a must-win game. Although his K Score is not as good as it was last week against the 49ers when he ended up finishing as a top-3 play, he has been hot as of late, and the Eagles give up the 12-most points to opposing kickers.
Joey Slye (CAR) @ Washington: 37% rostered on Yahoo
Slye has one of the best K Scores of the week in a difficult road matchup against the Washington Football Team. I anticipate a low-scoring game with multiple field goals for both kickers, and Slye has not posted less than seven points since Week 10.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Greg Zuerlein (DAL) vs. San Francisco: 32% rostered on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 18
- My Rank: 9
- Week 15 Finish: 3
The timing of this pick could not have been better for those fantasy managers who started Greg the Leg against the 49ers. With the Fantasy industry looking the other way on Zuerlein, his K Score of 22 indicated that he had an excellent shot of multiple field goal tries. That proved to be correct, with Zuerlein making two long field goals and five extra points. He also had the distance on a 60-yard try that would have made him the top performer on the week, but he pushed the kick wide right.
Jason Myers (SEA) @ Washington: 67% rostered on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 15
- My Rank: 11
- Week 14 Finish: T8
Myers continues to be the beneficiary of a struggling Seattle offense with ten or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. His K Score of 39 indicated that he would be a better play than Wil Lutz, Mason Crosby, and Stephen Gostkowski, and he came through with a solid ten fantasy points.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. Miami: 61% rostership on Yahoo
Carlson is the No.3 scoring kicker on the season yet is available in nearly 40% of Yahoo leagues. I have him ranked as my No.3 kicker this week at home against Miami, making him a league-winning asset for those looking for a kicker.
Other players to consider:
Tyler Bass @ New England: 46% rostered on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
