Fantasy leagues aren’t won in the first couple of rounds. When it comes to the Top 25 players available in any given year, all fantasy managers are working from similar lists. Barring injuries or extreme regressions, those first two rounds provide a solid foundation for every team. It’s in the next several rounds where opinions on players begin to differ and where fantasy managers have to start making real decisions based on projections, rankings, strategies, and their gut.
FantasyPros provides Expert Consensus Rankings that aggregate the rankings of dozens of experts in the fantasy baseball industry. These rankings allow fantasy managers to compare player ADPs (Average Draft Position) with their ECR to see where the experts are higher or lower on players than the general public.
But this also allows us to see where experts are regularly disagreeing with each other.
In addition to being able to see a player’s best and worst ranking from the experts, FantasyPros also provides their standard deviation. This standard deviation shows us where the consensus is in agreement and where opinions start to get further apart. A low standard deviation means that most of the experts are ranking a player right around the same spot, while a high standard deviation indicates a much wider range of opinions.
In this space, we’re going to take a look at players with high standard deviation and why that might be the case.
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Above is a chart with all of the players ranked 100-150 with a standard deviation above 25.0. No player in the Top 100 has a standard deviation above 25, and the highest standard deviation for a player in the Top 25 is Xander Bogaerts‘s 8.6. Of players in the Top 12, Jose Ramirez‘s 2.5 is the highest. And only eight players within the Top 100 have a STD DEV above 20.0.
Let’s take a look at some of the notable high standard variations in this 100-150 range.
Will Smith (C – LAD) STD DEV: 46.7
Catchers always seem have a high standard variation, and there are a number of reasons for that. Catchers always come with injury and playing time concerns, and many analysts just don’t value the position in fantasy. So, it isn’t that surprising to see Will Smith’s name jump out in the chart above with a 46.7 STD DEV, easily the highest in the group. You can see his best ranking puts him inside the Top 100 at 97, while his worst has him all the way down the list at 338.
338 seems pretty ridiculous, but I don’t have him inside of my Top 100, either. Smith is one of the best hitting catchers in the league, and he’s especially valuable in OBP leagues after posting a 14.6% walk rate last season. Most projections have him somewhere in the range of 20 home runs and a .240 batting average to go with just over 100 runs scored and RBI combined. Most of us would sign up for that in a heartbeat from the catcher position in fantasy in 2021. So, why such a high standard variation? Mostly because he is an exciting young hitter but also, you know, a catcher. Some experts are very high on him because of his potential and ability to get on base, while others are more conservative and are worried about his playing time over a full season.
Ian Anderson (SP – ATL) STD DEV: 26.8
You’re going to see a lot of pitchers with high standard variations in 2021 because of the shortened 2020 season. Innings are a major concern, especially for young starters like Ian Anderson. Anderson was the third overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, and he looked the part in 2020, pitching to a 1.95 ERA with an 11.41 K/9. But he only threw 32 1/2 innings last season and will still just be 22 years old at the start of the season. How many innings can we realistically project for Anderson? 125? 140? No one is expecting a sub-2.00 ERA over a full season, but projections vary on what exactly we should expect. Anderson was fantastic at every level of the minor leagues until a few bumps in the road at Triple-A in 2019. Will he continue to look dominant at the MLB level in 2021? Will the league adjust to him now that they’ve seen him? All of these questions are hard to answer, and that’s why Anderson’s 26.8 STD DEV is the highest of any player in the Top 115.
Dylan Bundy (SP – LAA) STD DEV: 31.9
It is going to be fascinating to see how Dylan Bundy does in 2021. He’s a former fourth-overall pick who was never able to live up to his potential in Baltimore. But he was traded from the Orioles to the Angels last December and had a career year in 2020, pitching to a 3.29 ERA and striking out 72 batters over 65 2/3 innings. And his Statcast numbers all point to his gains in 2020 being legit. He cut down on using his below-average fastball in favor of more of his above-average offspeed offerings, and the results were excellent. But can he keep that up over the course of a full season? Experts are split on what to expect in 2021.
It's going to be fascinating to see how Dylan Bundy looks in 2021.
Were his gains in the shortened 2020 season legit? Or will he turn back into a pumpkin over the course of a full season in 2021? pic.twitter.com/Zo7Yd0u5im
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) March 15, 2021
Victor Robles (OF – WSH) STD DEV: 26.6
Victor Robles was everyone’s favorite prospect in 2019 when he batted .255 with 17 home runs and 28 stolen bases. But the Statcast data showed some question marks, so opinions on the top prospect were split heading into 2020. Then Robles flopped with a .220 average, three home runs, and four stolen bases in 52 games while regularly hitting in the bottom of the order. The Statcast data was, amazingly, worse. And so now we have a former top prospect coming off of a bad season with a bunch of data that says his bad season was earned. But he’s still just 23 years old, and he was far from the only player who struggled last season. Plus, he has the potential for 25+ stolen bases at a time when steals are increasingly hard to find. All of that potential drives up his ECR and his ADP, but not everyone is buying the bat given what we have seen over the last two years.
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The deeper we get into the rankings, the higher the standard variation starts to get. 39 of the players in the 150-200 range of ECR have a STD DEV of higher than 25, and a dozen of those are higher than 40. And then there’s Gary Sanchez.
Gary Sanchez (C – NYY) STD DEV: 73.9
At 73.9, Gary Sanchez has the highest standard deviation of any player ranked in the Top 250 of ECR other than Daulton Varsho‘s 85.6. We talked above about why catchers tend to have a high standard deviation. Sanchez fits all of that criteria and more. He has to potential to hit 34 home runs in 106 games as he did in 2019, but he also has the potential to bet .186 or .147 or strike out 36% of the time, as he did in 2018 and 2020. Oh, and he has an injury history to top things off. If he’s right, he has the potential to be the most valuable catcher in fantasy and provide a real power boost to any lineup. But it is perhaps just as likely that he can’t stay on the field due to injury or poor performance.
Shohei Ohtani (SP,DH – LAA) STD DEV: 46.2
Ohtani is a player that many experts can’t agree on for this upcoming season. He looks good throwing the ball in Spring Training, and he has already flashed his power and speed potential at the plate. If he can put those two halves together for a full season (or something close to it), he could very well be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball history. But the chances of that happening are slim, especially considering his recent health history. Also muddying his consensus is how he is able to be utilized in different formats. In a perfect world, fantasy managers have daily lineup changes and can move Ohtani back and forth from SP to UT. But many formats force the fantasy manager to make a decision at the beginning of the week about how to use Ohtani, limiting his value.
Trey Mancini (1B,OF – BAL) STD DEV: 35.4
Mancini’s situation is unique in that he missed the 2020 season while battling cancer. He’s back in camp for 2021 and appears to be healthy, so his ADP is already on the rise. No one knows what to expect from a player who had a breakout year in 2019 but had to walk away from the game in 2020 due to his health. If he’s healthy and can shake off the rust, he could hit 30 home runs and bat .270. But those are two big question marks. If he hits in spring training over the next couple of weeks, his standard deviation will shrink. But for now, he’s seen as more of a boom or bust candidate.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
