DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (4/14)
We have just one month left in the NBA season! It’s been a great run for us, and we look forward to finishing things off strong! This slate is going to be particularly fun, with 12 games in total. That’s one of the largest ledgers we’ve seen all year, and it’s going to cause chaos. That means you need to keep an eye on injuries and even the news because anything can happen right now!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Most Value Per Dollar
We have 12 games, so every position is filled with value. We usually tend to ride a center at our utility slot, but this is one of those slates where you can pick anyone. What’s nice is that we have a lot of roster versatility and make lineup construction much easier.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Darius Bazley (OKC) $5,800
Oklahoma City is playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford, leaving Bazley to feast. Without those guys over the weekend, Baze had 17 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and nine turnovers. That turnover total might scare you, but it’s a really encouraging sign considering he led the team in usage. He already averaged 26 DK points per game with those guys, and we truly believe he’ll be a $7K player in this role sooner rather than later.
DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $7,900
DeRozan might be the best player in Raptors history, and you better believe he’ll be hungry against his former team. In five career games against Toronto, DD is averaging 22 points, 7.4 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He’s also got a career-best 66 true shooting percentage against them which is a truly ridiculous mark.
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $7,100
Brogdon was our top value play on Tuesday, and we’re going right back to the well. He’s flirting with a 40-point average for the season and dropped 63 DK points on Sunday. That makes it hard to believe he remains so affordable, and we’re certainly not worried about him facing a 24th-ranked Rockets defense, either.
Ja Morant (MEM) $7,100
Morant has been a volatile player in his sophomore season, but he’s got too much upside to be this cheap. We say that because he’s got at least 36 fantasy points in 21 games this season which is all you need from someone in this price range. We certainly don’t mind that against a 16th-ranked Dallas defense, especially with Ja dropping 44 fantasy points on them earlier this season.
Jalen McDaniels (CHA) $4,700
This is one of the weirdest prices on this slate. McDaniels has played at least 29 minutes in three straight games, providing 34 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s no surprise when you see all of the injuries in Charlotte, and he should be able to duplicate that against a 22nd-ranked Cleveland defense.
Marcus Morris (LAC) $5,500
It sounds like Kawhi Leonard will sit here, and they could also rest Paul George in the second half of a back-to-back set. If that’s the case, Morris is one of the best plays on the board. He has actually scored at least 38 DK points in three of the last five games that Kawhi has missed, and he has to do even more right now with Serge Ibaka injured, too. With all three of those guys off the floor, MM leads the team with a 26 percent usage rate if you needed any more incentive.
Monte Morris (DEN) $3,800
With Jamal Murray out for the season, Morris could be in for a start at point guard or a much bigger role off the bench. In his 11 starts this season, Monte is averaging 23 DK points per game in 31 minutes a night. That minute total is the most important thing because he can be a fantasy-point-per-minute producer when given the opportunity.
Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,300
Noel has been up-and-down all year, but we want to hop on the train while it’s rolling. The big man has played at least 27 minutes in three of his last four games, collecting 68.6 combined DraftKings points over his last two outings. That’s all you can ask for from someone this cheap, and we love that he faces a 28th-ranked Pelicans defense as well.
Wendell Carter (ORL) $6,000
Carter is slowly establishing himself as Orlando’s best player, and you better believe he’s going to be feisty against the Chicago team that traded him. He has now seen his minutes rise in four straight games, averaging 32.4 DK points per game across his last eight outings. We anticipate him playing 30-plus here, and he’s got at least 40 fantasy points in four of the last five games he’s done that.
Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $3,600
This could be a terrible recommendation, but I’d feel silly not picking Whiteside if he ends up starting here. It sounds like Richaun Holmes will sit after a hamstring injury on Monday, which means Whiteside could get some of his minutes. Even if he plays just 20 minutes, this dude can be a freak. In the five games in which he has played between 20 and 25 minutes, the big man is averaging 32 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is spectacular, too, and we’ll talk about that in the next section.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: Westbrook is quietly having one of the greatest statistical stretches in NBA history. Amazingly, he’s recorded a triple-double in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 23.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, 12.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. That equates to about 60 DraftKings points per game, and he should have no problem picking up another one against a Kings team with the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
- Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,000: The Nets are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers right now, and they’re certainly not going to slow down a guy like Embiid. The MVP candidate has at least 39 DraftKings points in all but two games this season en route to a 52-point average.
- De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,600: This guy is quietly having a breakout season for the Kings. Over his last 24 games played, he’s averaging 47 DK points per game. That alone makes him worth a shot below $10K, especially when you see that he faces a Washington team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. Oh yeah, did we mention that Fox is the fastest player in the league?
- Kevin Durant (BKN) $9,300: It sounds like the Nets might be without Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. That’s going to force KD into a crazy role, likely putting up 20-25 shots while generating a 30 percent usage rate. We love that for one of the most talented players in the NBA, and we can’t believe he’s only $9K.
Notable Players to Fade
- Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,000: Something is off with Simmons right now. He’s now failed to crack 39 DK points in 12-straight games, averaging just over 30 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s terrible from such a pricey player, and we can’t trust him until he gets out of this dreadful slump.
- Mason Plumlee (DET) $5,300: The Pistons are giving up, and it’s killing Plumlee’s role. Over his last seven games, Plum is averaging 23 minutes a night, ceding minutes to Isaiah Stewart. That really worries us, and we can’t imagine his role increasing the further the Pistons fall out of it.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.