(Expert Consensus Rantings is an ongoing series by Correspondent Tim Metzler, wherein Tim loses his mind over unjust Expert Consensus Rankings.)
It’s happening! It’s really happening! The start of the NFL season is so close to being here that it’s closer than human DNA is to chimpanzee DNA, which is… well, it’s very close!
We’re running out of time to ask what rankings are messed up and which ones are perfect. So, let’s focus on the position that runs out of value the fastest: Running Backs. Today’s subject: Josh Jacobs (RB – LVR), who is ranked abhorrently low as the ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) RB21 in half-PPR leagues.
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SCREAMING VALUE
Have we forgotten this man?! Have we so easily cast him aside as a consensus casualty? I say NAY! Not as a horse would say NAY, but as a man who is pretending to be a horse, who also stands in defiance of expert opinion. Now let’s graze in this pasture of fantasy football and gallop toward rankings justice.
As the projected RB21 in half-PPR leagues, Jacobs is a player with significant upside. SIGNIFICANT! He’s got a low-end RB2 price tag (discount alert!), yet his first two seasons both ended better than his current rank. I will address the reasoning for his lowered value later, but his first two seasons ended with finishes as RB18 in 2019 (playing only 13 games) and RB8 in 2020.
Here’s the thing that drives me crazy: he’s done nothing to make us think he won’t get the touches needed to return value. HE ALWAYS DOES! In his first two seasons, he racked up 242 and 273 touches. Both seasons ended with more than 1,000 yards on the ground. THE MAN GETS IT DONE.
It’s also important to note that Jacobs had only 20 and 33 receptions in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Why is that important? Because those totals are relatively low for an RB2 or RB1 finish. Yet, he still finished last year as the RB8. The hate this man gets… I tell ya. Makes me sick!
His upside is capped by his low reception total, but he’s shown little reason to believe he won’t at least return his RB21 value. And if Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) and Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) have anything to say about it (both finished 2020 with fewer than 20 receptions but were both in the top-10 at the position), low reception totals aren’t the end of the world.
If anything, Jacobs has shown that he can improve from one year to the next. I guess the “experts” weren’t paying attention! He had the third-most carries in 2020 and he’s still the top back on his team. With so many RBs dealing with their own question marks, Jacobs screams value. Too much value. He should be ranked higher. Maybe not too much higher, but still… higher.
So, why is he ranked so low?
WHY THE HATE!?
There are two primary reasons for Jacobs being ranked as the RB21. Firstly, the team made some questionable choices regarding their Offensive Line. They got rid of three of their starters in Trent Brown (OT – NE), Rodney Hudson (C – ARI), and Gabe Jackson (G – SEA). While many have taken the loss of these three players to be a sign of the apocalypse beginning in Las Vegas, there’s something to be said about getting rid of oft-injured players. Brown was injured for most of 2020, as were other starters for the Raiders.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked the Las Vegas Offensive Line as the 24th best in 2020. For the start of the 2021 season, PFF ranks the unit as the 26th best. However, the unit is ascending and has more potential than its ranking implies. They brought in Alex Leatherwood (OL – LVR) and Andre James (OT – LVR), both players who can solve issues from the 2020 unit. They’ll also get back one of their better run-blockers with the return of a healthy Richie Incognito (G – LVR). So, yes, the unit looks yucky, but there are reasons to be optimistic that they’re ascending, not descending. SO STOP PICKING ON THEM! CAN’T YOU SEE THEY’RE TRYING THEIR BEST!?!
Some might even consider the changes to the O-Line to be a reason to bet on Jacobs. Last year’s unit was bad. If the team had the same unit, you could assume it would still be bad. See, that’s called logic, which is something no one uses anymore. By moving on from some players, bringing on younger (less injured) ones, and getting back injured veterans, I think we’re being foolish by thinking this unit won’t improve over the season. Very foolish.
The second reason why experts are down on Jacobs is that the team added Kenyan Drake (RB – LVR), who was the starting RB for Arizona last year. Drake was one of the few (10 total) RBs to rush more than 200 times in 2020. Some experts think this is a sign that the team doesn’t trust Jacobs and that they want some assurance that the roster won’t collapse if he goes down with an injury.
I think there’s evidence to the contrary. The team jettisoned RB Devontae Booker (RB – NYG) in the offseason. Good riddance! Just kidding, I’m sure he’s a nice guy. Booker had the second-highest rushing attempts on the team with 93. He also did a little receiving work out of the backfield. With him gone, it would make sense for Drake to add those touches, provide a change-of-pace option and also serve as the pass-catching back. Perhaps Jacobs loses a few touches, but he’s still the lead back. Fresh legs could be just what Jacobs needs to boost his efficiency. Furthermore, playing the change-of-pace option is more what Drake does. Over his career, his season total rushing attempts have been 33, 133, 120, 47, 123, and 239. 2020 was the outlier for Drake, not the norm.
I could be wrong that Drake won’t command too many touches. Not afraid to admit that I don’t know for sure. It takes a true man to admit he’s mostly an idiot. Anyway, we all need to breathe and remember that Raiders head coach Jon Gruden loves Josh Jacobs. He was selected 24th overall in Gruden’s first season at the helm, meaning Gruden has a lot of personal pride invested in the success of Jacobs.
In a press conference on August 17, 2021 (7:15 timestamp), Gruden stated that “When you got a real player that puts forth as much effort as–and I mean relentless effort–that Jacobs does, he knows who works, he knows who’s got talent, he knows who’s tough, because he’s top-of-the-line in all those categories, so we listen to him.”
While preseason pressers are worth less than gas station sushi–at least when it comes to the regular season–I think it’s too easy to just gloss over that Jacobs was involved with bringing Kenyan Drake to the team. That means something. The move is a head-scratcher on the surface, but maybe the real takeaway should be that the team trusts Josh Jacobs.
No matter what you think, Jacobs has yet to let us down over the full season. A re-shuffled O-Line and an improved secondary punch in the backfield have made his ranking plummet way too much. Let’s stop the hate. It’s time to choose love for this Las Vegas legend-in-the-making. It’s Josh Jacobs Time!
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Timothy Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Timothy, check out his archive or follow him @timmy_the_metz.
