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1. Who is the best buy low target among star players?
This is an easy one for me. We talked about Buffalo’s offense last week, and Josh Allen certainly delivered against Washington. So all the Bills skill position players should be valued properly now, right? That’s mostly the case, but I do think Stefon Diggs is a screaming “buy low” option after being held under 70 receiving yards for the third straight game.
Diggs hasn’t had a weekly finish as a top 24 fantasy wideout yet, but the target share remains so strong. In three games he has checked in at 28.6%, 27.6%, and 23.3%. Buffalo struggled in their opening two games but found their rhythm this past Sunday. Instead of Diggs’ numbers normalizing, the eruption game went to Emmanuel Sanders. The Diggs manager in your league is unlikely to be dying to sell, but we might have a window of opportunity to acquire him cheaper than usual. As shown in the tweet below, we know the Bills are going to continue throwing at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
#OurRaiders #OurChargers #OurPanthers pic.twitter.com/DU96BPk3ye
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 27, 2021
2. Should we worry about Atlanta’s offense?
Entering Week 4 the Falcons rank dead last in offensive DVOA. This isn’t the renessaiance fantasy analysts were expecting when former Titans OC Arthur Smith took over as head coach. Based on what we’ve seen so far it’s tough to tell if Smith isn’t putting his player in optimal situations or if Matt Ryan is simply no longer even an average quarterback option. His ADOT through three games is weak (5.0). This has obviously led to a low ADOT for Calvin Ridley as well (8.8 compared to 13.4 in 2019 and 14.3 in 2020). The good news is his target share is still very strong.
Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts continues to run routes at an elite clip (88% in Week 3), but the targets and production just aren’t flowing. Perhaps he’s still adjusting to the pro game. His offensive environment isn’t as high-functioning as we anticipated, though. Despite the lack of success so far Pitts remains a top-six tight end in all fantasy formats. As for Atlanta’s offense as a whole, we should expect things to improve, but not to the extent where Ridley and Pitts hit ceiling outcomes in 2021.
3. Is it ever going to happen for Jonathan Taylor?
In short, yes. Taylor is a talented running back who had an elite prospect profile and absolutely smashed down the stretch as a rookie. The issue for his fantasy production thus far has been that the Colts have been trailing at the second-highest rate in the NFL, per PFF. Taylor is the type of early-down bruiser who plays better with a lead. Think Derrick Henry lite. Taylor has also seen a lot of red zone rushing attempts but has yet to score. Touchdown regression is on his side.
Additionally, Marlon Mack was a healthy scratch in Week 3 and there were recent reports that he’s on the trade block. That’s a great sign for Taylor as it means we’re only dealing with a two-man backfield (factoring in Nyheim Hines). Yet the most important reason to remain optimistic on JT is Indy’s upcoming schedule. The Colts draw the Dolphins and Ravens in Weeks 4 and 5, but then they get the Texans, 49ers, Titans, Jets, and Jaguars. Positive game script should eventually come Taylor’s way, which makes him a firm hold despite the lackluster start.
4. Is Ja’Marr Chase a sell high candidate?
This is a tough one. We’re well past worrying about Chase’s preseason drops issue. He has absolutely lit it up through three regular season contests, finding the end zone four times on just 16 targets. Touchdown regression (the bad kind) is about to hit in a major way. Normally, this would make him a surefire sell candidate in fantasy. However, he’s so talented that he’s the type of player to bet on moving forward. He should only improve as a real life receiver as the season goes on and there’s hidden upside in his current profile should the Bengals begin throwing more.
Entering Thursday’s Week 4 game against Jacksonville, Cincinnati is one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. Joe Burrow had just 18 pass attempts in Week 3. The three lowest pass attempt games of his career have come in the three games he has played in 2021. If the Bengals start throwing more as Burrow gets healthier and the offensive line comes together, then Chase can remain a strong WR2 despite the expected TD regression.
Still, we’re just hoping right now since we haven’t been shown a change in approach is imminent. My heart says hold Chase. My brain says sell.
#Bengals were super aggressive with Burrow last year (both pace and PROE).
Complete change in approach this year. Possibly health related but tough to argue w/ their efficiency thus far.
I think we see them get to neutral rest of season but not much higher.
cc @ChrisAllenFFWX pic.twitter.com/4m7HYz7CEi
— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) September 28, 2021
5. Can we trust Robert Woods in our starting lineups?
I think so. It has been a frustrating start to the year for Woods, especially considering how many targets Cooper Kupp is seeing right now. Through three games Kupp has a preposterous 36% target share. Woods’ total is 20%, which is still strong. The big game just hasn’t happened for him yet. Looking beyond the standard target share, Woods is running routes on 84% of LA’s dropbacks, and he has a 29% end zone target share plus a 25% target share on third and fourth downs. This underlying usage is so strong. Keep him locked into lineups against Arizona this weekend.
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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.
